Member Info for BenBen88

For those concerned

The short didn’t play out as expected, so I cut my losses. That’s part of the game. I was right on the sequence of events; less so on the market’s rather idiosyncratic reaction.

On the facts, however, there is very little to debate. For weeks, some were quite certain there had been no seizure and that the sources cited could not be trusted only to be met with a formal statement from the U.S. Government confirming precisely those events.

It is rather striking how resilient confidence can be, even in the face of clear evidence.

And one point we can probably all agree on companies such as Condor, and others with exposure to Nicaragua, are trading at a deeply discounted valuation. A change in regime could reprice that dramatically, and further sanctions may well continue to shift the landscape.

Until then, expect volatility and sideways movement, largely driven by the gold price.

As for those who were so certain places do carry on. In markets, even ignorance has its uses: it provides the liquidity for those who understand what is actually happening.

Https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-imposes-sanctions-nicaragua-government-officials-others-alleged-seizure-us-2026-04-16/

https://x.com/secscottbessent/status/2044846473758851287?s=48&t=isjpugAGY2EgOF1DVBYPlw

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0451

A robust U.S. response to the expropriation of BHMB sanctions are now being imposed across Nicaragua’s gold sector.

In a pointed public statement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made clear that the United States will not tolerate the confiscation of American-linked assets and will continue to target the revenue streams underpinning the regime.

It will now be interesting to see how the market responds.

Major4

challenge accepted

Here we go https://www.linkedin.com/posts/iareporter_investors-in-gold-processing-plant-submit-activity-7442644671576748032-4QDB?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAADKsikcBOFucH_MuocPRPh9_cn9j07Jih4o

Https://www.laprensani.com/2026/03/25/economia/3660632-bhmb-mining-reclama-a-dictadura-mas-de-us80-millones-en-ee-uu

For those here who don’t speak Spanish, here are the key points from a La Prensa article published this morning:

BHMB Mining Nicaragua is pursuing an ICSID claim exceeding USD 80 million against the Nicaraguan government.

The article states that the investors are British and American, bringing the claim under the UK–Nicaragua BIT and CAFTA-DR

The case is described as a straightforward unlawful expropriation closure, asset seizure, and transfer to Chinese-linked operators.

Implications:

This sharply raises legal, geopolitical, and sanctions risk. It signals potential international pressure including targeted or sector-wide sanctions and sends a clear warning to any foreign investor exposed to Nicaragua’s mining sector.

I’ve taken some profit off the table on the recent dip, but I’m still holding positions for the coming months.

As for your question, I think the likelihood of the Chinese taking over La India is fairly remote at this stage not an immediate concern, though not entirely off the table either.

The real risk is broad, sector-wide sanctions. If and when that happens, any public company operating in Nicaragua is effectively finished, regardless of gold prices.

At that point, the Chinese far less sensitive to sanctions - will be in a position to pick up any gold projects for cents on the dollar.

Https://elpais.com/opinion/2026-03-24/nicaragua-el-dorado-chino.html?ssm=TW_CC

For the Spanish speakers among you

All the signals are already there

this isn’t if, it’s when. My estimate in three months as I wrote before

In 2022, targeted US sanctions wiped ~30% off in a day. (Calibre mineros) Now we’re talking sector-wide. Different scale entirely.

You’ve got a US asset effectively expropriated BHMB, Chinese involvement, and increasingly direct rhetoric out of Washington. Add gold still flowing into the US while funding the regime, plus pressure building on Cuba - it’s a textbook setup.

The Americans are patient umm until they’re not. And when they decide it’s over, it’s over. They’re hardly going to lose sleep over a few overconfident Brits running a half-functioning mine in the middle of nowhere...

Possibly the most expensive “site visit” in history tens of millions wiped off the value, all for a photo op with people widely associated with the killing of students.

Even if one assumes some wider geopolitical angle, (Iran war) you’d have to be fairly naive not to link a 7% drop to the rather unfortunate headlines across the British press yesterday

From a Nicaraguan perspective, this is even more telling. You won’t find a single serious member of the economic elite - nor any major mining CEO-publicly pictured with the Ortega family since April 2018. The only ones who have done so? Mark Child jaja , who took heat for it, and now Nick Candy, who appears to have repeated the same mistake.

And yet some here are still applauding “great PR, front page of The Times”… fo... quite.

So either Condor has no grasp of the geopolitical reality it operates in, or there’s a far closer relationship with the Ortega family than most would be comfortable with something other companies tend to avoid like the PLAGUE .

Either way, I seem to be proving that my calls here have been rather accurate… let’s see if we get sub-10 by month-end - we’re not far off.

Https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/national/25957440.reform-treasurer-met-sanctioned-individuals--nicaragua-trip/

And another one joins the party… really looking forward to that deep red open tomorrow.

Haha simms45... whistling past the graveyard

Clearly just a routine visit - nothing at all to do with expropriations, US pressure, or a slightly nervous market....

https://www.the-independent.com/news/uk/home-news/nigel-farage-reform-nicaragua-daniel-ortega-central-american-b2943266.html

Looks like we’re heading into a rather dark red Monday, gentlemen.

Thanks antroot I think I’ve managed to get a general sense of things, but I have a couple of questions.

Would you say The Times is more conservative or liberal in its outlook?

And do you have any insight into what Candy - who is probably far more astute than all of us - was hoping to achieve from meeting with the Ortega family?

😂 Once again, seems I was right. Great article...

Anyone who thought a photo op with someone responsible for the killing of over 300 students would somehow advance their position may now have to face a rather RED Monday.

A serious misstep from Candy with this visit

I’m not particularly well-versed in British politics, but perhaps one of the Brits here can explain how a hard-right, ultra-conservative party ends up openly engaging with Ortega a Marxist, far-left leader.?

Spanish is, in fact my first language.

And no I’m not that "comfortable" claiming any certain outcome, I’ve been in the market long enough to know there’s no such thing as "certain."

Of course, like anyone in a short position, I’d be comfortable seeing the price move lower.

And I could be wrong and end up eating my hat that’s part of the game.

Antroot

I’m not expecting widespread nationalisations, certainly not in the near term. Given the current geopolitical situation and the level of US pressure in the region, I don’t think the regime would be reckless enough to openly provoke Washington.

That said, I do expect more targeted sanctions from the US on the gold sector, , and EU measures are also not out of the question.

The concern is driven by two key developments: first, the expropriation of BHMB assets in coordination with Chinese-linked entities; and second, the transfer of concessions that were already under US sanctions from a company linked to Laureano Ortega(comintsa) to a Chinese company.

The Americans tend to be particularly sensitive when their sanctions frameworks are being circumvented and that, in my view, is the core issue here.

Sources

https://forbescentroamerica.com/2026/01/26/compania-nicaraguense-sancionada-por-ee-uu-cede-concesion-minera-a-empresa-de-china

https://www.laprensani.com/2026/01/27/english/3613856-nicaraguan-regime-allows-sanctioned-mining-company-to-transfer-concession-to-chinese-firm-thomas-metal

https://www.laprensani.com/2026/03/04/english/3643264-trump-ally-richard-grenell-blasts-ortega-regimes-takeover-of-american-mining-firm

Is BHMB a not fact?

Is Richard Grenell's statement not fact?

Is Chinese getting new concessions not a fact?

Is eqinux and Hemco Tax Assessments and Fines not a fact?

Maybe Nick should change his name to Ni Can Di

Smoothbrain

You clearly don’t understand short selling. Try an intro to investing before offering opinions.

Condor forever

They won’t start with public companies they began with private ones. BHMB was simply the smallest, so it came first.

This doesn’t stop there. It spreads.

There are persistent rumours around Hemco and Equinox being pushed to relinquish concessions to Chinese entities - in Equinox’s case, we’ve already seen it happen.

On taxes, just read the filings: both Equinox and Hemco explicitly record "fines"

A regime willing to expropriate U.S. and British-linked assets should be a red flag to any serious investor. That’s not speculation-it’s been acknowledged by senior U.S. officials.

Is anyone here actually addressing the facts?

All the NPV models and forecasts are IRRELEVANT

Either the Chinese take the asset and let’s not pretend they pay for it

or the Americans impose sanctions and the share price collapses.

The only way I’m wrong is a sudden regime change - in which case mining stocks will fly.

As Nicaraguan If that happens, I’ll be very happy to lose the short.

There’s something almost endearing about how easily British investors confuse staged smiles with genuine welcome - as if a few handshakes mean you’re partners, not targets.haha

Let’s keep this simple:

First — Calibre is hardly operating in calm waters. A ~$36m fine only weeks ago. Hemco paid ~$42m. That’s what happens once you start making money there.

Second — this obsession with handshakes and smiles is rather… British.

A few polite meetings, and suddenly it’s “stability”.

Do show me those same smiles when the company tries to take money out.

Third — if things turn, the Chinese won’t be smiling. They’ll just take the asset.

And if the Americans follow through on the sanctions they are openly discussing well those charming handshakes won’t count for much.

In the meantime, we’re down 17% month-to-date.

I’m already in nice profit.

Sub-£10 by month-end.

Mark my words.