Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thanks Frenchie.
In a strange way i feel a little more positive after listening to MC in that interview.
I might have to buy a few more.
Got to be honest i didn't feel that way after yesterday RNS.
Well from the video site visits are happening as we speak and 10 NDAs and 2 Denver conferences next week with a busy schedule of meetings. If we have many more suitors coming in at this late stage lets see what transpires but what they should do is take the highest offer today and make binding and this will then create urgency for any other suitor to put down their cards as today everyone is holding their cards and waiting. Maybe Jim is being the roadblock here holding out for high price and while he might wield 23% of Condor if we already have a number between 40-60p they should progress it to binding and who knows some listed TSX company might make a straight takeover or propose another deal structure but really September is the month this should happen.
Indeed s . This year!
Great post ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Mark should be gone like I’ve been saying for a long time as he couldn’t run a bath without putting bubbles in he’s pocket
Hannah bent as a banana
Jim wants to live for ever
Haven't posted in some time as, like many of you, have been keen on watching this unfold.
Couple of observations: the Twitter post that pointed to Sales Progress recap that was pinned is now UNpinned in favour of some luke warm comms and a weak bod message, punted out to market by JM - stinks of exasperation.
I'm not sure who's running the twitter profile - whether it's outsourced or not - but the tone deafness, and "shrug" emoji concerning the statement around "undervalued" is completely immature and detached from the reality that is market pressures on our SP. Something's only ever worth what someone will pay for it. The ramblings on local initiatives, reiteration of inferred volumes etc etc etc, frankly, is mind numbing. It's frustrating that we're even PAYING someone to post this drivel.
Concerning this, also, it's a sad state of affairs when PIs must revert to reading between the an intern's lines on TWITTER to understand what the hell is going on. All signs, unfortunaetly, point to - well, nothing. Nothing is going on, and furthermore the problem is that any potential suitors are seeing the same as us; a half bothered JM and disinterested MC isn't exactly the force of nature you want selling a key asset.
JM needs to nut up and put a deadline in place for the binding offers, otherwise the non-binding offers by definition are absolutely utterly worthless.
Secondly, I seriously think a sacking is in order. Nudged over from the CEO seat is one thing, but at this stage it's clear that no value whatsoever is being added by certain persons. The land ownership factor is binary in nature, and has simply been lied about. We'll possibly learn that the .4% missing is the only accessible strip of land of la india.
All in all, we're in the same boat. The sale process has been a failure. Mark really should be gone at this stage - between Hannam and AN effective sales director - if selling the asset is our only strategy - we could save thousands.
I require just below 50p to break even and am seeing even that slip away (my initial target price was £1.20-£1.60, back when the wind was at our backs!), now, like many people here, I can't wait to see the back of this - many opportunities missed due to holding Mark and Jim's bag.
Good luck, all.
For the 40p plus club, I sincerely hope you recoup any losses when this blows over. For the 15p club, excellent timing you lucky bunch - worth sticking about just for very different reasons than the rest of us! You could still get a multi-bagger still, when Mark decides to come back from his holibobs that we've all paid for.
I didn’t get where I am today listening to Mellon saying we should expect 150,000 oz a year…
Suddenly got a flashback to Reggie Perrin there with your post ddd.
Hi ddd, not being funny and I know it’s repetition, but mellon led peeps to expect 150 k oz production this year. I don’t give too much credence to a vague comment from him tbh. Sudden goo or
Yep. But anyone can sell anything below fair value. It has always been the case that Condor is not going to be sold off cheap. As for time, I'm as frustrated as anyone but when you've been in a share 12 years, another 12 months doesn't feel like as long a time as it might feel if I had only invested in 2022.
JM is sending a clear message that he's prepared to wait it out rather than accept a lowball offer. I guess he didn't get where he is today by accepting low offers...
It's fun speculating, but the reality is neither the BoD nor anyone on this board has an inkling as to when an acceptable deal will appear, nor how much it will be. Meanwhile I'll stick with 60 - 65p (share equivalent value), hope I'll be pleasantly surprised and pray I'm not too disappointed.
With the interims being delayed I had started to think that there might be a good reason. With them now out it's a coin toss as to whether a binding offer will come through on a day. The non-binding bid teams should be getting back off their vacations so it surely can't be that long before someone blinks and has a go. And if we get one we'll probably get another. That's what I really hope for.
With NAV about 23p, a mid-market price of 21p, and the possibility of a binding bid any day now, Condor looks attractive. It's a pity the sellers are not thinking it through properly.
Ddd, the only thing that is clear is we have been up for sale for 10 months and there is still no binding bid. Meanwhile we have added shares and spent nearly £3 m .
Negotiations obviously still going on with various parties and big Jim’s blunt conditioning message around his “fair” expectations I guess will either oil the conclusion of a satisfactory settlement or send some suitors packing. My average is 47 pence and fully loaded with CNR and I still have reasonable confidence in making some money - but who knows when!? This has to be a great share to take a punt on at current levels.
Simms, so what does £100 m give you for your Cnr shares? No point waving your finger in the air. How many shares, how many costs. Personally I think £100-120 is probably the price if they can get it which will not clear 50 p. Are peeps going to vote against a deal that gives less than 50 p ??
Is anyone having problems logging onto II
Of all days lol
With numbers as good as this its disappointing we did not crack on with building the mine as we would be opening middle of next year or sooner if we had. One thing for sure the value of the asset would significantly increase towards NPV the closer to production and also would make it considerably easier for someone to acquire when they have sight of the production date and when gold revenues would come in sooner to pay back the purchase. As long as the board is comfortable with letting Condor go for around £100m i am sure they have plenty of cash buyers but i sense they are holding out for a lot more and sooner or later they will need to accept a lower value of around £100m and move forward.
Well that was deflating! All the hype and enthusiasm appear to have dissolved…. Are we being set up for Plan B…. Limited production?
Jim Mellon ‘ Chairman and largest shareholder states:
“We are very aware of the value of our assets and will not allow them to go at anything other than a fair price”
The following statement in the RNS gives a clear statement of what they consider that value to be based on which the bidders will be well aware of:
“ The Company's strategy has been to develop the fully permitted La India Project in two stages using the new SAG Mill that has already been purchased. The delivery of a Feasibility Study Technical Report ("2022 FS") on 26 October 2022 on La India open pit, with an average of 81,524 oz gold per annum for the initial six years for a relatively low total upfront capital cost of US$106 million is a landmark and significantly de-risks the Project. At US$1,600 oz gold, the La India open pit Mineral Reserve produces total revenues of US$888 million, the total operating costs of mining, processing and G&A are US$480 million, leading to an operating profit of US$408 million or a 46% operating margin. After government and other royalties, but before sustaining capital, the operating profit is US$355 million, which in Condor's opinion is ample to repay any project debt on the relatively low upfront capex. At US$2,000 oz gold after paying royalties, but before sustaining capital the operating profit is US$563 million. In reality, two permitted high grade feeder pits will be added during the early years of production thus increasing production ounces of gold. Early production is targeted at 100,000 oz gold p.a”
Further:
“ Highlights 1.225 Mtpa PEA La India Open Pit + Feeder Pits :
-- IRR of 58% and a post-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") of US$302 million, at a discount rate of 5% and gold price of US$1,700/oz.
-- Average annual production of 120,000 oz of gold over the initial 6 years of production.
-- 862,000 oz of gold produced over 9-year Life of Mine.
-- Initial capital requirement of US$153 million (including contingency).
-- Payback period 12 months.
-- All-in Sustaining Costs ("AISC") of US$813 per oz gold.
-- Robust Base Case presents an IRR of 48% and a post-tax NPV of US$236 million at a discount rate of 5% and gold price of US$1,550/oz.
Highlights: 1.4Mtpa PEA Open Pit + Underground Operations
-- IRR of 54% and a post-tax NPV of US$418 million, after deducting upfront capex, at a discount rate of 5% and gold price of US$1,700/oz.
-- Average annual production of 150,000 oz of gold over the initial 9 years of production.
-- 1,469,000 oz of gold produced over 12-year Life Of Mine.
-- Initial capital requirement of US$160 million (including contingency), where the underground development is funded through cash flow.
-- Payback period 12 months.
-- All-in Sustaining Costs of US$958 per oz gold over Life Of Mine.
The Company remains convinced that the 587 sq km La India Project is a major gold district with the potential for significa
And we are now trading 1 - 2p below NAV. Not a lot of sense around at the moment.
It was probably too much to expect bidders to come off their hols and do something in August, although there was always a chance. This RNS could have been put out 4 weeks ago, and it does feel a little forced. You can’t wait forever to release financials, so perhaps time force their hand. I’m also of the view that they were waiting for something that didn’t come through quickly enough - remember all those odd hints in recent weeks…
It’s pretty clear that they are standing their ground in terms of value and price. I’m not in the lowball 35 - 40p camp, nor do I really think 90p is going to happen. I’ll stick with the 60 - 65p area I’ve been all year. Which leaves the question of when.
Looks like more patience is needed.
I sincerely hope you are right Simms! I was hoping to get out at at least 40p to get my money back but what remaining confidence I did have is rapidly draining away.
Roxi, where on earth do you get 70-90 p from from this rns . How much will that equate to in$ for the company??
Just had a quick scum before work.
Two visits in last 6 months when was the third ?
Cash burn running at around £300 k p month . Raising generally with around £500 k left each time . £137 k liabilities. Imv next warrant/ raise oct /Nov which will take us over the 200 m shares .
99.6 % of the important land bought.
Not seeing suitcases and handshake imojies in this rns tbh.
Gla
Given what was said in last RNS
“the Board is confident that a binding agreement will be reached. Investors will be updated in due course”
For me this meant we had an acceptable non binding offer and aim was moving to binding as MC said investment banks involved. Just a hunch a binding offer might follow this interim up quite quickly. I am sure they hoped to announce deal prior to this but in the end needed to hastily put this together so as not to let the interims slip outside expected delivery. we will see.
What a mess we’ve had a spring sale now it’s time for the summer sale duck jim I won’t sell cheap then you won’t sell it at all then SIMPLE 😂it’s worth 50p that’s why we are heading for the teens mark should be held accountable for this mess
Hasty is the right word Simms - so poorly put together and clearly not checked for errors. Leaving Xs instead of dates and spelling errors.