The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Not all employees know how to trade shares. I doubt that 5% of population have a personal trading account. So these employees have possibly just thought that the option was giving them a right to something that they wouldn't be entitled to otherwise. Obviously an incorrect assumption, but the fact that sn employee of at least 5 years standing is taking up the option rather than heading for the hills is surely encouraging ? We don't know what employee communications are like on this, maybe they have been encouraged that a positive outcome is likely ? Who knows, but this has to be seen as at least slightly positive.
I wasn't having a dig at Seingred. From what I can see, he's been fairly close to the money on most occasions, and indeed we may not find a buyer, but JM will surely play this last hand as strongly as most ( & that's what we want). But let's see where it lands.
Seingred - you may be right that an offer with a 3 in front is fanciful( we'll see), but one has to negotiate as hard as possible. MC recently made it clear that their approach was to negotiate a discount from the NPV of $400m. On that basis, it is not fanciful to look for an offer of 75% of NPV. Bearing in mind that the $400m npv is based on $1600 gold and does not reflect any value of unproven reserves - which a few recent posts refer to - the unquantified upside.
I think that you're a very reasoned poster, but I'm glad you're not leading the negotiation.
GLA
Whilst you might keep one lower ball offer on the table ( because it is easy to convert into a non-binder) most of the other non-binders must logically be either reasonable or close to being reasonable. Against such an assumption, the handshake and briefcase emojis start to make some sense.
Whilst I can't understand the use of such emojis in a stock market regulated scenario, it does compute.
I agree that know one knows what level these offers are ar, I would, and am , argue that they are close to reasonable. I agree that we are unlikely to see the money this year, that JM will fill his boots with 15p warrants.
The current share price is a reflection of the uncertainty. Of you think that there is a strong chance of no deal, I get the current share price, but if you think that there is a strong chance of a reasonable deal, then it's an absolute bargain.
MC has already stated in his recent presentation that "the art now is to convert one of those 5 non-binding offers into a binding contract". Why does he not give us all a bit more confidence around that point ? This is where the negotiation conflicts with what he's prepared to tell shareholders. If he announces that the 5 non-binders are close, they won't move their offers by much. Total guess here, but I think that reason for this is that current offers are in the $200 m + range and BoD want one with a 3 in front.
Per my post yesterday, I am assuming that if MC hopes to convert one of the current 5 non-binding offers to a binding offer, then at least one of those 5 non-binders must be at a reasonable level. They probably all must be at least half reasonable , otherwise they'd have been rejected out of hand, but instead, they are still on the table. MC did say in earlier presentation that they had turned down low ball offers, but surely they went straight in the bin and aren't included in the current 5 non-binding offers ? You wouldn't continue to include an expired or rejected offer in this number surely.
I think that the most important bit in that presentation comes at 4.30 where Mark says " the art now is to move one of those 5 non-binding offers into a binding agreement".
To me that seems extremely positive. Mark has always been quite precise in these presentations ( unlike the company's use of emojis), so it seems as though the board see enough in at least one of the 5 non-binding offers to be close to being acceptable. We know that JM isn't prepared to sell cheaply, so presumably the board believe that at least one of the 5 is relatively close to bring a non-cheap acceptable offer.
I'm as impatient as anyone else to get my funds out of here, but I'm quite confident based on that one small comment.
Yes, that interview has given me some confidence. Before listening, I was imagining that JM would take this private at a good price for him. He would be perfectly placed - he's hovering at just under 25%, Hannam have evidence of 3rd party valuations, but offers are non-binding so all JM would have to do is more or less match one of the tentative offers, and he vould take all of the value difference between npv and price paid - and he keeps any upside beyond proven reserves. However, MC states that JM is prepared to finance the company ( and all shareholders) through the sales process. I know that he'll want a fee/cut for doing it, but sounds as though we will all see some return here.
I'm still guessing 80p, but it's not the end of the world at 50p.
I have been frustrated by lack of feedback from MC, but this is a good one. I know that I'll get caned for saying so but I think that if MC delivers 60p plus, he'll have done a good job, given that he can only ever do what the major shareholders allows him to do. Luckily at the moment JM is telling him to sell the family silver to a jeweller rather than to a rag and bone man.
I have only been invested here for a couple of years, so my view of MC is limited to that period. I think he's a decent guy, who will deliver a reasonable sale.
I think that this is an important point , namely that a lot of LTH's need 50p plus to break -even. Because of this high historic entry price, this seems to have always been a relatively thinly traded share as LTH's sit and wait to break even.
I know that this fact doesn't make the company's assets worth any more than someone is prepared to pay, but it does probably influence the strike price that Hannam are being pushed to achieve, and perhaps therefore the length of time this is taking to sell. I'm getting very bored of the waiting game now - but In my positive moments I do expect/hope to see a price closer to 70p ,than 40p. If you're in for 26p, should be no problem !
Yes - that is precisely what is needed, a fixed date for full and final offers. Surely that can't be too difficult to arrange, and surely that must be what is being done as part of the Hannam sale process.
Pure speculation here, but unless there is a decent offer, I think that JM will take this private.
If he believes in gold prices at $2,000 then Condor has an NPV of $700m plus. Why is he selling his 25% interest for something like £40m ?
With the game changing ESG sentiment shifts in the last 10 years this is a holding that is perfectly suited to a non-uk domiciled entity.
I think that JM will match the highest offer and take private.
Who knows what the tabled bids are. But my point earlier was essentially that for JM to be tweeting that now is the time to pass the assets to someone else ( just a week after MC had stated that JM was going to stand his ground on price, and iimply that if needs be, JM would support a plan B if his value expectations weren't met) implies that there is an offer in play that meets JM's expectations or JM has capitulated his expectations. I just feel that his tweet implies to me that he has sight of an offer that he is expecting to accept. Obviously this is just my interpretation, so pure speculation, but why tweet that if you weren't actually now expecting to dispose ?
I hold shares here and want an offer to land at as high a price as possible, I'm not trading, just waiting for the transaction to conclude.
I believe thar this must be as good as sold. 2 weeks ago we have MC saying that JM isn't going to let this go cheap, and if needs be, they'll go to a JM funded plan B. Then a week later we have JM tweeting that it's time the company's assets were taken on by someone else.
To me that reads that JM is now (happily or otherwise ?) accepting that there is a done deal in play - maybe not fully binding yet but ....