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Have emailed RKH re RNS of 23/3/23 ( as posted by buzzthomas ) & asked whether they expect a decision shortly .
You’d be looking at something like 60 days per well, so much more to do than exploration or appraisal drilling. That’s if everything runs like clockwork, which happens seldomly.
My understanding is that Navitas intend to utilise an FPSO but I’d like to clarify where a separate drilling rig would still be needed ?
My memory of the last campaign was the drilling seemed to go on for ages, then abandoned. Hope Navitas plan them better than PMO did.
I seem to remember certain early wells were 30-45 days but the latter ones were more like 12 to 18 days. I’m getting old so maybe I’ve remembered that wrong.
Thanks Buzz - that was pretty unambiguous.
Defo awaiting an imminent decision. From RKH's last update RNS:
Following Italy's request to seek annulment of the Award, an ad hoc Committee was constituted to hear relevant arguments and make a ruling on Italy's application for a continuation of the provisional Stay of Enforcement pending the determination of Italy's request to annul the Award. A hearing on whether the ad hoc Committee will continue or lift the provisional Stay of Enforcement was held on 6 March 2023, with a decision expected in the next few weeks. The decision on whether to continue or lift the provisional Stay of Enforcement is unrelated to the merits of Italy's annulment request.
TotalEnergies eyes bid for E&P player Neptune Energy
Independent with strong North Sea presence could be worth $5 billion
13 April 2023 14:54 GMT UPDATED 13 April 2023 15:19 GMT
By Gareth Chetwynd in London
TotalEnergies is weighing up a bid for private equity-backed oil and gas company Neptune Energy, according to a report by Bloomberg news agency, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
TotalEnergies boss Patrick Pouyanne says risky $27 billion Iraq investments are jeopardised by Baghdad stance
Read more
Neptune, which is backed by Carlyle Group and CVC Capital Partners, could be valued at more than $5 billion in a sale, according to an earlier Bloomberg News report.
Neptune, which has exploration and production assets in the UK and Norwegian sectors of North Sea, as well as Algeria and Egypt and several other locations, reportedly attracted interest from Italian energy group Eni last year, but no deal was forthcoming.
French supermajor TotalEnergies is described the latest suitor in early-stage talks with Neptune about a possible takeover, according to sources who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.
Neptune was formed in 2015 by Sam Laidlaw, former chief executive of UK gas supplier Centrica. Its owners have been working with advisers including Rothschild & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group to explore options for the business, Bloomberg reported.
Neptune in numbers
Daily average Kboepd production
135
Gas share of production
76%
2P reserves mmboe
552
I’ve heard this Buys vs Sells argument over and over and over. For the life of me I cannot understand it. If some some geezer have sold 10 shares, that must mean some other geezer have bought his/her/its 10 shares… some gets executed closer to the bid and other closer to the ask price and that’s what determines if a trade is seen as a “sell” or a “buy” (sigh), but can someone please explain to me why this is supposed to carry any significance? I find it utterly trivial..
Highest volumes in a month & "sales" Vs "buys" looking about 4 to 1, but if you add in the more probable "unknown" sells, its nearer 8 to 1. Hope its not a nasty Friday RNS on the stay of payment decision ! GLA, DB
Regarding additional funding requirements that Rock ''may need'' in 2024,
I should be understand it could vary from $0, to in theory $151m.
I use a hypothetical, realistic scenario of $1.3b capex, $1b of finance,
meaning Rock need to find around $35m of funding for post FID, pre first oil expenditure.
This funding could be achieved, if required, in a number of ways as has been discussed.
It seems reasonable to hope that funding and much more, can be achieved by the unanimous OM award,
that slippery Italy are trying in vane I feel, to avoid.
"So what I'm getting at is, despite not expecting news on the OM award until Jan 2024 and FID not due until first half of 2024 as far as we are aware, it would be wrong to assume that it's a case of nothing to see here until mid 2024 at the earliest."
You've convinced me LTT :)
I seem to remember that prior to DES drilling their hole, someone posted a link showing (worldwide?) rig availability. It certainly took time to get one and get it to the Falklands, though I don't remember where it came from. Perhaps things have changed now and rigs are 10-a-penny, but as you said its unlikely.
No doubt I've got my sums wrong, but assuming all the warrants are taken up, won't that provide just under an additional £5.5M for RKH, at best?
I wouldn't mind being given £5.5M, but with OM interest being added at about £1.25 - £1.5M per month, that far exceeds any income from the warrants and with no dilution.
I realise the interest depends on there being no annulment and that the award remains largely intact, but I think that's an assumption I'm prepared to make.
In any case, RKH will only need a significant additional funding if things are progressing to FID, then Sanction, etc., in which case, there'd be absolutely no problem in raising what by then will be a relatively trivial sum.
Hi Penny,
no I haven't taken up the warrants either, they are just sat waiting in my account, probably stay there until October or November and then might be worth buying and keeping or can just get my broker to buy and then sell them and I pocket the difference, which at the moment is not worth doing, but come October it just might be. Maybe sooner if the OM Stay is no approved or Navitas announce funding progress or letters of intent being sent out on rig contracts.
I am pretty sure they will have to source a rig and send out a letter of intent, can't just book a rig the month before, not when they have to take into account MOB costs and 18 holes to be drilled (11 prior to first oil). If you work on them taking 45days per well, that's over 2.2 years of drilling, that's 1 year and 4 months prior to first oil then another 1 year after. I think from memory they did a well in about 30-35 days on average, but imagine a producer would take longer as it seeks out the sweet spots. Someone with actual knowledge of these things please put me straight on the above as it's all guestimation on my part!
So what I'm getting at is, despite not expecting news on the OM award until Jan 2024 and FID not due until first half of 2024 as far as we are aware, it would be wrong to assume that it's a case of nothing to see here until mid 2024 at the earliest.
However time will tell.
LTT
Hi LTT,
Apologies, I can see now that actually with the award due around the FID date things look better than I believed (if it's granted in our favour, of course). I'm here to learn though, so thanks for your time.
Fortunately if finance does prove to be needed, there are options as you note. It would just be another share price kick if any were required, which is what made me worry. I did also wonder about the outstanding warrants - how many people here have taken theirs? I certainly haven't...
Hi PennyorPound,
May I ask how you get to us being a bit short of cash?
What would we need funding for? Pre-FID costs are covered at 8% interest , Post-FID costs are covered interest free, if we don’t get the OM award in the first half of 2024 (presuming the case is won by us) then there are options for the $30m approx we would need to stump up to get to first oil (the $30m was someone else’s numbers so could be more).
So if we get FID and project sanction in 2024, firstly they wouldn’t need the cash straight away and either way we would have the following options;
1. Would be RBL which would be achievable upon project sanction.
2. Sell part of the award, as we would get a much better deal after the annulment has been thrown out.
3. Fund raise. Not ideal however after winning OM, FID and project sanction I would be astonished if the share price wasn’t 40p+ so dilution would be minimal.
So can’t see us running out of cash before one or all of the above happen. Let’s not forget the outstanding warrants to be exercised prior to end of Dec 2023 there has to be some reason for that date IMHO. But open to be proved wrong.
LTT
Thanks PD for both links - first time I've seen what the Execution of an ICSID Award might look like.
Think you have provided the perfect excuse for me not to mow the wilderness once known as our lawn!
DEM
I like the bit about four year contract, that seems to line up nicely with first oil timescales.
It's very encouraging to see all parties keen to get a move on with the Sea Lion project.
Hot Mustard
The pizza airline is now ITA.
“Alitalia filed for bankruptcy again in 2017. The brand officially ceased operations in late 2021, when it was reborn as ITA. It operated only 52 aircraft, down from about 160 Alitalia had in the mid-1990s”
Thank you SpaceHoppa for responding on my behalf. I'm not always so quick off the mark here!
As you said, that the OM delay leaves us a bit short of readies. That is sub-optimal, so we will need a source of funding in 2024. A hiccup we can do without, but not insurmountable
I find it rather confusing, but it only refers to what happens if the day of the announcement is a 'Saturday, a Sunday, a public holiday', not the Saturdays, Sundays or public holidays in between.
I think I'm going to wait and see, just like with everything else associated with RKH, OM and SL's progress.
Thank you … I accept the criticism of repetitive and always TRY to be polite but as we all know children and Citizen TS, in particular, can be very exasperating.
Fully expect him/her to persist, but at least I tried.