Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Shipwrecksheep… thanks for reply and filling in the gaps… all steam ahead with todays rns. GL.
The thing is, molokai, I haven't seen a single rare earths company say "The assets are worth x$" - Rupert has certainly switched to talking about the commercial side more, it's not like they ignore that side. But the way he does it is by comparing to https://meteoric.com.au/ , which, yes, has higher grades at Caldeira (but lower recoverability than Cobra), but it's similar style mineralisation, it's the same massive scale that we're looking at with Boland imo (Caldeira is 400 Mt+ resource), both companies also have a smaller gold resource in addition (Cobra 279k ounces, Meteoric 357k ounces). If ISR is a green light at Boland, margins will still be high with the grades observed.
So we'd have a massive-scale, high-profit-margin, environmentally-friendly REE resource in the country with - to my knowledge - the only 2 rare earths miners with multi-billion $ market caps outside of China. With one of them, Lynas, currently only having hard rock resource, so they might well want to diversify to have cost competitiveness at low REE prices too, similar to Cameco with uranium with their high-grade hard-rock resource and a very low grad, but high-margin ISR resource. And that's when things could get very interesting very fast. Because frankly when you look at the Meteoric project and the potential of Boland, profit margins might not look so different eventually if Boland is ISR suitable and Caldeira isn't, yet one has 233m£ market cap and the other 7m£.
There's lots and lots of de-risking to do, but I don't consider a scenario of multiple 100m£ market cap as unrealistic, IF (and for now that's a big IF) the actual scale coincides with Cobra's model, ISR is a go, and grades are consistently above 1000 ppm throughout that area. This alone would likely warrant a market cap of 100m£, then add into the scenario possible interest by Lynas or Iluka given geographical proximity, add into the scenario any escalation in China leading to a potentially massive bull market in rare earths, and sky is the limit (that last point definitely applies to all REE companies that can operate mostly independent of the China value chain)
More likely a valuation will come from a broker. Not that they are reliable.
I've mentioned it a few times on here over the last year or so.... the RNS need to give a monetary value to the assets- maybe when Boland results are firmed up a $ sign will appear against the discoveries- that way the general market can gauge what they are buying into..... my opinion anyway.
Really is...wonder what sort of PR can be done to bring cobra into the spot light.... shy of the usual twitter comment...need something with a bit more reach
Well and truly under the radar.
I think the "few hundred million" is probably based on Aussie dollars so maybe closer to a 15 bagger, still worth hanging around for though
Say Cobra have 1 billion shares in issue by end of 2025 then sell for £200m so 20p per share or is that way too optimistic!?
All depends on whether they can prove their ISR concept and it is scalable but if they can produce rare earths undercutting the Chinese then don’t see why the above is not feasible.
When will the market start to believe in the story though reflecting with sp growth rather than decrease then stagnation we’ve had to endure for the last 12-18 months!?
Haha, I'll have some of what they're drinking! But I'll start with a cup of some of the tea you're imbibing.
Nice post Tom....... I think they've been hitting the Vin rouge though at the sunday roast....a few hundered mill in two years!...a 50 bagger?! Blimey- i'll have so many millions of $$ it'll be like winning monopoly!
maybe a 10 bag in my tea leaves at some point?
GLA!
Https://audioboom.com/posts/8493525-sunday-roast-featuring-paul-johnson-investor-charles-archer-long-term-ftse-aim-investor-and-f
Cobra at about 1 hour 33 mins in.
"12 to 24 months....the for sale sign will go up and it will be worth a few hundred million dollars"