Northern sector of the North Falkland Basin (NNFB)
'thesnail' (fka Topdrive) makes reference to this interesting, but currently unlicensed area, 'north of sea lion and north of Johnson'. As mentioned in his post, there has been almost no comment by any of the Falkland exploration companies past or present.
I believe that some years before the Falklands drilling campaign, there was some 'speculative' 2D seismic carried out on the area to the North of the NFB (NNFB) - which appeared to show several potential hot spots for future exploration.
In 2011-12 RKH hired a brand new state of the art seismic ship (MV Polarcus Asima), which after completing the 3D seismic over Sea Lion steamed North and spent several days shooting seismic over the unlicensed area located above PL01 and PL032. No results were ever released AFAIK.
In 2019 three Geologists (Jones, McCarthy & Dodd) working for the British Geological Survey carried out a detailed technical analysis of the area.
Highlights
• Four main depocentres in the NNFB are identified in 2D seismic data.
• NW-SE and NE-SW trending faults controlled syn-rift graben development.
• Six tectonostratigraphic units are identified and described across the NNFB.
• Identification of hydrocarbon plays within early post-rift and syn-rift.
• The NNFB forms an extension of the proven NFB petroleum system.
See attached link to read the entire 12 page open source document:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264817219300832?via%3Dihub
The Northern NFB is currently unlicensed but I imagine there will be considerable interest if FIG include this new area in the next licensing round. At the moment - quite sensibly - I assume FIG are keen to focus on getting First Oil at Sea Lion.
I reckon they will still be drilling the NFB in 20 years time.
DEM
Evening OHT
Great to see you posting again - hope you are well and prospering.
ATB
DEM
Maybe substitute pseudonyms for vassals. (Groucho)
Particularly the 'empty' variety !
DEM
"Ovets seems like the majority of posters think you are evasive around a key question. If I didn't know better Id say you didn't want to provide an answer. Its quite funny. Ill tell you my view, the board's view and the market's view: NO chance of FID this year" (DL/Godders)
Please clarify which Board you are referring to ie RKH or NVPT or Ouija ?
DEM
'There's a reason we havent had an RNS in a long time' (DL/Godders)
Rockhopper issued 17 RNS' in 2023 H2, including:
New Chairman - industry heavyweight, ex CEO at Cairn (12 yes), responsible for collecting $1.2bn award from India.
New Non Exec - 30 yrs industry experience, ex COO at Cairn (10 yrs), oversaw 5 FID, now a Senior VP at ADNOC.
Monetisation of OM Award - likely to net c£100m to RKH in next 6-12 months.
Confirmation of 94% take up of Warrants - great vote of confidence in company.
Confirmation that largest II has increased holding.
Long term investors in RKH know perfectly well that Sam will only issue an RNS if there is hard news to report or if there is a statutory requirement. I know that there are many AIM listed O&G companies who will happily churn out multiple RNS' almost on a daily basis. Never was the expression regarding Empty Vessels more apposite.
As LTT correctly reminds us in his post - Navitas is the Operator of Sea Lion - and we therefore need to get used to regularly checking both the Navitas:
https://navitaspet.com/investor-relation/
and TASE (Tel Aviv Stock Exchange) web sites.
https://maya.tase.co.il/en/company/1688?view=details
DEM
Evening AC
Much as I respect your generally wise and informed posting, I interpret the meaning of Procedural Order 3 differently.
I think it simply means that this is the Third Procedural Order issued in the Annulment Proceedings of this case.
Please see the ICSID case database for this case:
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14
and click on the Procedural Details tab.
On August 6, 2018 'The Tribunal issues Procedural Order No. 3 concerning production of documents'.
ie The numbering of Procedural Orders is sequential and has nothing to do with the subject matter.
Please also refer to the ICSID CONVENTION, REGULATIONS AND RULES - 2006 version, which applies to this case as it commenced prior to the 2022 Revision.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/ICSID%20Convention%20English.pdf
'Chapter III General Procedural Provisions' - commencing on Page 111 - makes no reference to a Procedural Order 3.
'Chapter VII Interpretation, Revision and Annulment of the Award' - commencing on Page 124 - also makes no reference to a Procedural Order 3.
DEM
Good find Mogger. The Job Description (click on link in advert) includes under Main Accountabilities:
"Provide expert environmental policy and regulatory advice and development, as required subject to the
operational and policy mandates of other FIG departments, related to onshore and offshore commercial and
industrial activities, including for oil and gas development, aquaculture and other maritime activities etc".
"Lead in the evaluation of Environmental Impact Assessments subject to the operational and policy mandates of
other FIG departments".
I think the 'direction of travel' by FIG is becoming very clear, whatever some of the naysayers on LSE may claim to the contrary.
DEM
AlmaCogan
A memorable and elegant post with much good advice for Latics & Co - should he deign to dismount from his high horse. With respect, I think that your comments are more charitable than this individual deserves.
DEM
Any remaining doubts regarding President elect Javier Milei, were assuaged when I read the following.
Gideon Tadmor must be rubbing his hands with glee !
DEM
"While Milei's rock-star strutting and mod haircut are widely recognised, what's less discussed is his connection to Judaism.
Milei is a strong supporter of Israel, last year pledging to move Argentina's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, mirroring one of the first moves by President Trump when he took office in early 2017.
And the economist also has a strong tie to the Jewish faith as well as Israel. According to an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais from earlier this year, Milei reads the Torah every single day and regularly converses on Whatsapp with Rabbi Shimon Axel Wahnish, the Chief Rabbi of the Jewish Sephardi Moroccan Community of Argentina".
https://www.thejc.com/news/world/who-is-javier-milei-argentinas-trump-who-studies-torah-and-loves-israel-6VmK4MBPAWtOtE1cZKsfB0
"BUENOS AIRES (JTA) — Argentina has never had a Jewish president. But that concept could move a step closer to reality after a general election in October.
That’s because on Sunday, the leading vote-getter in national primary elections was Javier Milei, a libertarian who wants to convert Argentina’s currency to the US dollar and has made headlines for controversial comments on hot-button topics ranging from climate change to sex education.
He also wants to convert to Judaism".
https://www.timesofisrael.com/argetinas-far-right-presidential-frontrunner-wants-to-become-jewish/
No less than 5 articles in Mercopress reporting on the victory by the far right Libertarian Presidential Candidate Javier Milei over Sergio Massa in the runoff elections in Argentina.
https://en.mercopress.com/argentina
Milei succeeds President Fernández on December 10th. The Workers' Party left-wing leader had openly supported the losing Peronist candidate Sergio Massa. With 97% of the votes counted, Milei beat Massa by 55.76% to 44.23%. A convincing win - probably aided by strong support from former President Macri and former Centrist hopeful Patricia Bullrich, who failed to make the cut at the Oct. 22 general elections.
Since the return of democratic rule and in terms of percentages, Milei became the most voted candidate ever: Javier Milei (2023 - 55.7%), Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2011 - 54.1%), Raúl Alfonsín (1983 - 51.7%), Mauricio Macri (2015 - 51.3%) etc
During the final electoral debate before Sunday’s election, Milei praised Margaret Thatcher as one of “the great leaders in the history of humanity.” Milei – a self-described anarcho-capitalist – has frequently expressed admiration for Thatcher’s free-market policies. But she is still reviled in Argentina for ordering the sinking of the General Belgrano cruiser, killing 323 people on board, during the 1982 war with the UK over the Falkland Islands.
As regards the Falklands - Milei told La Nacion: "What do I propose? Argentina's sovereignty over the Malvinas Islands is non-negotiable. The Malvinas are Argentine. Now we have to see how we are going to get them back. It is clear that the war option is not a solution.
"What we are proposing is to move towards a solution like the one England had with China over the Hong Kong issue and that in this context the position of the people who live on the islands cannot be ignored. You cannot deny that those people are there. You cannot disregard those human beings.
"You have to negotiate with Britain and consider the views of the people who live on the islands. If I am saying that the Malvinas are Argentine, why are there any doubts? I am saying something that is in the national constitution. We are looking for a solution for the Malvinas Islands to return to Argentina through diplomacy, a solution that is viable, that is achievable."
All things considered, Milei's victory is probably good news for the Falklands. There was no way any of the Candidates were going to suggest dropping the Argentine claim to ownership of the Malvinas. In stating that the views of the Falklands population must be taken into account - I suspect that UKGOV and FIG will breathe a sigh of relief. In any case the outgoing government leaves behind annual inflation of 142.7%, poverty above 40%, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.2% lower than in 2019, negative BCRA reserves, and a negative foreign trade balance. So, I think that South Atlantic affairs will be be consigned to the back burner.
DEM
Good Morning Alma
Do hope your CT scan was uneventful - old age sucks but it sure beats the alternative! How very odd that the Jehova's Witness was allowed to mount a mini recruiting drive at the hospital.
You raise an interesting point. I believe that Fermi's Paradox refers to the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extra-terrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence. In short - where are all these alien creatures which supposedly should exist ?
The solution is very simple as anyone who has visited the RKH bulletin boards will know. The 'other place' (A*V*N) is positively heaving with weird alien life forms - barely recognisable to us as intelligent species and quite unsettling in their bizarre strangeness. Fortunately, we know that the Portal connecting our world with theirs only opened for a few days in the Summer of 2018 and then again in November 2020.
Even our very own LSE (known as the 'Shire') has been invaded by shapeshifting entities who in the blink of a post can morph from an apparently amiable fellow investor into a hissing entity from Zeta Reticula. I was amazed to discover that our jolly, cricket loving - Moody hating, ex-friend Glen (Call me Mr Bumble) was only banned in theory - not in practice - as CFA Charterholders have some sort of 'Get out of jail card' and he had been able to return from the LSE vaults as Latics (Pay attention Boy) except, of course, for when he is Chessmaster (Actually I'm a genius) or any one of over 50 other Avatars which crawled through the Portal in 2020. Truly shocking and not a little discombobulating !
Even more surprising was the big reveal yesterday that Godders99 who we thought was away reprising his role as Marvin the Paranoid Android ("Pardon me for breathing, which I never do anyway so I don't know why I bother to say it, oh God I'm so depressed. Here's another one of those self-satisfied doors. Life! Don't talk to me about my Rockhopper shares) - has returned to LSE as 'Decidedleaverage' (or is the third 'e' really an 'y' ?)
All very confusing and quite disturbing for us private investors who perhaps unwisely believe that it is 'Better to be poor and honest than to be rich and lying'. (Actually 'rich & honest' is better still).
DEM
Paul
I seem to remember that back in the 2010-12 era, there were a lot of professional O&G guys - many working on the rigs - who were heavily invested in RKH. They mostly preferred to post on ADVFN, I think, because the Moderation was laxer than on III and LSE. So, if they wanted to tell a few jokes or swear a bit - nobody was bothered. Any supposed drilling leaks could be disguised by burying the info in impenetrable rambling posts - often in dialect. After the drilling finished the Board seemed to get taken over by the Boiler Room fraternity (the 'girls') who have been wreaking havoc ever since.
That particular Troll Swamp really needs draining and the individuals who run the Boiler Rooms need to be held to account in the High Court. It will happen - hopefully soon. A nice project for Sir Keir Starma (ex DPP) perhaps !
DEM
US judge says Argentina owes about $16 billion after YPF payout trial
NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Argentina suffered a big legal defeat on Friday as a U.S. judge ruled that the country must pay about $16 billion to minority shareholders of YPF (YPFD.BA) arising from the government's 2012 seizure of a majority stake in the oil and gas company.
U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska in Manhattan ruled in favor of Burford Capital (BURF.L), which funded the litigation brought by shareholders Petersen Energia Inversora and Eton Park Capital Management LP, and according to court papers was entitled to a respective 70% and 75% of their damages.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-rules-against-argentina-following-ypf-payout-trial-2023-09-08/
If Argentina are determined to grab Falklands oil they only have two options. Seizure by force is a complete non starter. An unintended consequence of this Judgement is that it should greatly reduce the risk of Argentina attempting any illegal Seizure through Legislation. In any case, lacking a navy or air force to enforce any seizure attempt means that it would be doomed to fail.
Another box ticked.
DEM
Chessmaster1234 on 21 August reminds us all that:
"my posts are not all opinion based, they are based on facts with some educated opinion thrown in to allow the masses a small insight into how the mind of a genuis (sic) works. The difference between me & most other investors is that a (sic) do more detailed research than the average man so I may better anticipate what & when significant events may be expected and thus gear up and profit from them".
Imagine my surprise when I read over the weekend that Chessmaster1234 is asking:
"Will it be Funding or a LOI on an FPSO, it's anyone's guess but we do know both should come before FID based on Shenandoah, where Navitas are also operator".
Navitas are NOT of course the Operator of Shenandoah. As a Chess Master with a brain the size of a planet - very surprised you made this schoolboy error. Take 100 lines.
"Shenandoah is an ultra-high-pressure oil and gas development located in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, US. Beacon Offshore Energy, an upstream production company formed by Blackstone Energy Partners in 2016, is currently the operator and holds 20.05% interest in the deepwater project. BOE II Exploration, another Blackstone Group portfolio company, holds 10.95% stake in the project. Other development partners of the project include ShenHai (49%), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Israel-based Navitas Petroleum, and HEQ Deepwater (20%), a company formed by Quantum Energy Partners and Houston Energy in 2021. HEQ Deepwater acquired 20% working interest in the Shenandoah development from BOE II Shen, an affiliate of Beacon Offshore, in August 2021".
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/shenandoah-field-development/
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/beacon-gives-out-another-contract-for-gulf-of-mexico-project/
DEM
PS
Shenandoah - discovery 2009 - first oil 2024
Sea Lion - discovery 2010 - first oil - 2026
Looks like Rockhopper's time frame is pretty much par for the course and not so shabby for an AIM minnow !
Hoorah for Sam !! He deserves a knighthood (Latics)
If Sea Lion's three Phases are on stream in a few years time producing 300,000 bopd from the three FPSO's + gas coming online in the SFB and the latest exploration campaign in NNFB getting underway - it won't be Sir Samuel - more likely Baron Moody of Stanley !
DEM
Good to see that Sam's decision to extend the Open Offer of Shares & Warrants to retail investors in last years Placing was very much in line with best practice.
I have no doubt that any future Placing - in the unlikely event that one is required - will follow the same approach. I am confident that neither the Board nor the great majority of Private Investors will succumb to the daily hectoring and bullyboy tactics of certain elements on this Board.
A gentle reminder to the clever individual(s) who are CFA Charterholders or who have other finance qualifications - you are in no way exempt from the LSE 'Terms and Conditions of Use' nor of course the Laws of Libel. You might also wish to review the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct' of your own professional bodies, including:
https://www.cfainstitute.org/en/ethics-standards/ethics/code-of-ethics-standards-of-conduct-guidance
Extract from todays interesting & relevant Editorial in the Investors' Chronicle online by Rosie Carr, Editor:
"In the UK, too, attitudes towards private investors are changing. There has been a notable shift in official support for broader retail investor inclusion in UK capital markets, including in last year’s Austin Review, which stated that the default presumption should be for retail inclusion alongside institutional investors in both IPOs and follow-on fundraisings, and Rachel Kent’s Investment Research review, published in July.
Platform PrimaryBid says regulatory tailwinds are set to accelerate inclusion, and that while some retail participation is still limited by legacy EU rules, these caps are expected to be removed. It points out that in 2022 there were 13 FTSE 350 offers, of which 85 per cent were open to retail, while seven of the nine offers so far this year from the 350 have been open to retail.
That’s a sea change from just three years ago, says James Deal, head of UK at PrimaryBid: “Best practice now demands that companies include retail investors when they raise capital.”
There is still a long way to go – retail investors are frozen out of many fundraisings, and even when they are included, the speed of execution (often overnight) can rule them out, but Deal says that PrimaryBid is an advocate for bookbuilds being open for as long as possible, and that better notification channels will be key to improving retail access".
DEM
Hi Zen
Yes - all fair comment. Plenty of options available.
DEM
I think the lack of a formal Announcement stating that the Stay has been lifted were dealt with in the RKH RNS dated 13 July 2023 headed:
'Update on Arbitration - Stay of enforcement to be lifted once Rockhopper put in place relevant escrow arrangements'
After a brief summary of the key events to date the RNS continues:
'On the 11 July 2023, and having received additional comments from the Parties the Committee issued the following orders with regard to the provisional stay of enforcement:
1: That the provisional stay of enforcement shall terminate 5 business days following the provision by Rockhopper to Italy of documentation that escrow arrangements in the form proposed have been established, provided that Italy does not within those 5 business days submit a reasoned written objection in these annulment proceedings that the escrow arrangements established are not in accordance with the proposed arrangements'.
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/2023/07/update-on-arbitration-2/
In the current (2006) version of the 'ICSID Convention, Regulations and Rules' - 'Rule 54 Stay of Enforcement of the Award' on pages 126-7 provides a concise set of rules and procedures as to how ICSID will deal with Stays.
Clause 3 in Rule 54 states:
'All stays shall automatically terminate on the date on which a final decision is rendered on the application',
https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/ICSID%20Convention%20English.pdf
On July 10, 2023 'The (ICSID) ad hoc Committee issues Procedural Order No. 2 concerning the termination of the stay of enforcement of the award'. ie Final Decision. Click on Procedural Details tab:
https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14
I am certain that Rockhopper will have been guided by their retained arbitration lawyers King & Spalding - one of the top global firms in this field. If K&S say the Stay is lifted then I'm sure the Board will be delighted to be able to start considering 'next steps'. These will include choice of jurisdiction(s) to present the Award, composition of in-country legal team, strategy regarding which assets to target, costs and timing. I doubt that there will be an RNS announcing these details in advance - as there is no need to give RoI advance warning.
Lifting of the Stay is yet another box ticked and will, I imagine, increase the value of the Award - should some of it need to be sold to cover Rockhopper's share of Sea Lion costs. In previous posts I have suggested a figure of around $36m as RKH's likely contribution - assuming a total project cost of $1.2bn - but this may be reduced if a third party joins the JV. With Ombrina Mare now worth over $200m net to RKH after paying Harbour Litigation's fees - $36m (£29m) seems very 'doable' - even if any part sale of the Award is heavily discounted.
DEM
CJ1986
The style is rather reminiscent of another banned alias from your murky past.
Reported to LSE for multiple breaches of the LSE T's & C's - good riddance to bad rubbish !
DEM
"I do not want the board dominated by these whingers, who offer nothing constructive but simply constantly whinge & moan about all things Rockhopper, without putting any realistic, relevant, balanced & critical arguments forward". (Glen69)
https://rb.gy/okwdo
DEM