Member Info for DeusExMachina

"Rule 37

Visits and Inquiries;

Submissions of Non-disputing Parties

(1) If the Tribunal considers it necessary to visit any place connected with the dispute or to conduct an inquiry there, it shall make an order to this effect. The order shall define the scope of the visit or the subject of the inquiry, the time limit, the procedure to be followed and other particulars. The parties may participate in any visit or inquiry.

(2) After consulting both parties, the Tribunal may allow a person or entity that is not a party to the dispute (in this Rule called the “non- disputing party”) to file a written submission with the Tribunal regarding a matter within the scope of the dispute. In determining whether to allow such a filing, the Tribunal shall consider, among other things, the extent to which:

(a) the non-disputing party submission would assist the Tribunal in the determination of a factual or legal issue related

to the proceeding by bringing a perspective, particular knowledge or insight that is different from that of the disputing parties;

(b) the non-disputing party submission would address a matter within the scope of the dispute;

(c) the non-disputing party has a significant interest in the proceeding.

The Tribunal shall ensure that the non-disputing party submission does not disrupt the proceeding or unduly burden or unfairly prejudice either party, and that both parties are given an opportunity to present their observations on the non-disputing party submission".

See page 117 of the 'ICSID 2006 edition ICSID Convention, Regulations and Rules'.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/rules-regulations/2006-rules-and-regulations/resources

Without knowing the grounds for the original Annulment Request - it is hard to know what the 'Submissions of Non-disputing Parties' might refer to. If Thenorseman is correct - then it may simply be the OM Litigation Funder wishing to get their name linked to the case in order to simplify future court cases against RoI.

However, I suspect that this is an Eleventh Hour attempt by RoI or more likely one of the Environmental Anti Oil Lobby Groups to derail the process or at least obtain a Partial Annulment.

Fairly certain that this is the last delaying tactic allowed under the ICSID Rules. Once resolved, the penultimate stage will be 'Case Concluded' (probably before Y/E but maybe Q1 2025). Approx one month later, ICSID will announce its 'Decision on Annulment' as to whether the RoI attempt to get the original ICSID Award overturned (Annulled) has been successful. Payment by the Litigation Funder to RKH of the Tranche2 monies should follow soon after.

The recent flurry of positive news articles suggests to me that somebody has pressed the 'PR START' button. I doubt that this would have happened if the proverbial ducks - including Ombrina Mare - were not all nicely lined up ready for the OFF !

Good Luck All

DEM

Diary of Dr Henry Jeykll

I am a University educated, professionally qualified member of the financial business community. I love modelling (not the Airfix type) and have more cunning plans than Baldrick. I am of course Certified but apart from the old 'Pseudologia Fantastica' problem am mostly sane and rational. I am confident that my financial qualifications exempt me from 'LSE's Terms and Conditions of Use' - which can be safely ignored. I earn an impressive salary but spend far more than I should on my secret obsession.

Most days, I adopt one of my Edward Hyde aliases and frequent certain fringe websites. I pretend to be a simple but honest fool - I am actually neither - and post pitiful 'Woe is me' pleas for attention and sympathy.

I seek to mislead, depress and frighten the inexperienced by rubbishing the company in which many have invested their lifesavings. Hopefully my persistent bleating convinces 'Sheeple' investors that I am one of them and share their misery - rather than often being the cause.

By creating a miasma of doom & gloom I not only scare off potential new investors, but more importantly, encourage sales by existing shareholders. This depresses the SP and I buy heavily on the Dips as do my fellow travellers. (Note to self - Must check precise legal definition of 'Concert Party').

My real aim, of course, is to distract and antagonise more experienced investors who should perhaps know better. This ensures that I am the 'topic of the day' - not the company. The more I can consume the 'oxygen' on the Boards, the easier it is to smother any 'factual' posts by those irritating investors who think that project funding, OM Tranche 2, Navitas and FIG news, identity of possible new JV member(s), FID & Sanction are key to the success of Sea Lion and likely catalysts for the SP.

I actually find constructive and reasoned discussion difficult and original research just plain boring. Much prefer Spreadsheets to people!

In confidence, dear Diary, I am 100% certain that Sea Lion is viable, will be delivered on time, under budget and is already proceeding 'At a Pace'. My only fear is if one of my professional clients or colleagues or family members becomes interested in the company, reads my posts and joins up the dots. It could all get excruciatingly embarrassing. Oddly, I get a strange thrill from deliberately being so careless - or is it arrogant - with my own personal data.

Next day ......

This morning I woke up in bed to find a head shaped object beside me - severely beaten & disfigured and covered in a black waxy substance. On closer inspection - a used Drill Bit, I think - probably a subtle message from my Arch Nemesis Moody.

Perhaps it is time to create a new identity - this time it must be simple and memorable, dignified but totally unrelated to my real life persona. After several hours deep thought I think I have the perfect alias - Oddglob !

DEM

Gosh TCM - never realised you had all these followers. Must be a source of constant disappointment that so few ever bother to 'Recommend' your posts. DEM

As predicted by most of the sensible 'grown-up' posters on this Board: 'All required precedent conditions to the Transaction have now been satisfied. Under the terms of the Transaction, the Tranche 1 payment is due within 5 business days'.

€15,000,000 = £12,670,000 divided by 640,580,000 shares in issue = 1.98p notional increase per share. So, once the monies are in the RKH bank account, in a few days time, we might expect to see a rise in the SP of c2p to c16p.

All investors - Godders excepted - welcome rises in the Share Price, particularly when resulting from an increase in the bank balance. However, there are other positive considerations.

Based on shares in issue - at 16p the Market Cap of Rockhopper will be £102.5m. This is rather significant as there are a considerable number of Unit Trusts, Investment Trusts and Pension Fund Managers who are not allowed to invest in sub £100m AIM minnows by their respective Articles of Association. Also, the great majority of 'serious' HNW private investors - members of organisations such as ShareSoc and attendees at Mello events - would typically set the filters to exclude sub £100m 'punts' when using Stock Screening systems such as Stockopedia and SharePad. These all now become potential buyers as RKH starts appearing on their Screens as a possible investment option.

The successful completion of the Agreement to monetise the Ombrina Mare Arbitration Award means that Tranches 2 and 3 will follow in due course. The Tranche 2 payment of €65m (c£55m) is very likely by the year end or very soon after and will be worth another 8.6p on the prevailing SP.

Consider - ten years ago when RKH was riding high - the company had in excess of 40,000 Private Investors. Today we have around 10,000. (This data comes from questions asked at various AGM's over the past decade and answered by the Chairman and Company Registrar). I strongly suspect that most of the absent 30,000 RKH investors lost money and probably still regard Rockhopper as 'unfinished business'.

Perhaps more importantly there is a long list of Institutions who have reduced down to token holdings who may decide to start buying back in.

Analyst to Fund Manager - 'Do you remember that funny little oil company in the Falklands which we bought at 20p and sold out at £3 - well it's all kicking off again but this time they have a great JV partner who is steaming ahead for first oil in 2026. Thanks to a smart monetisation of an Arbitration Award, RKH looks like it will have sufficient funds to pay its share of costs, but has an interest free loan facility with Navitas just in case'.

In short - it seems likely that we may be approaching a tipping point where many former holders decide to buy back in - plus of course a new generation of investors who neither know nor care about the history - but can spot a bargain when they see one.

DEM

Godders

You seem to have already forgotten the sensible advice given to you by AlmaCogan a few weeks ago:

"May I suggest you follow the example of that famous perjurer, Jonathon Aitken; accept your mistakes, retire from public life, take a vow of silence and join the priesthood as a penance. When you are meditating in your new life, just ask yourself - why did I use a familiar version of my name on the internet and think I was anonymous."

To which I would add:

Whatever you say in the first post of your new alias - do not use one of your pet catch phrases !

DEM

BTW - your memory must be fading as well - the second word in your catchphrase is ALWAYS upper case.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ojarj6nTM4

Although the 2015 Tax Settlement Deed's alleged tax liability is perhaps less poisonous than it once was and has been 'derecognised' by RKH - it still exists and is sufficiently complex, vague and material to the RKH balance sheet - to give any prospective predator pause for thought. There is, after all, no shortage of simpler T/O targets.

It should still be possible to find a form of words to satisfy all parties. By now, both RKH and the 'un-named Specialist Funder' will probably have lodged signed copies of the OM Monetisation Agreement with lawyers to be 'held to order' and subject to FIG's acceptance of the deal.

Whilst FIG do have a tendency to procrastinate - I do not think that the current delay is due to FIG's tardiness. I suspect that FIG will be happy to sign the docs, if and when, RKH request it and at the moment I can think of good reasons why it may suit RKH not to complete just yet.

The BIICL/Baker Botts study flagged that over 25% of Annulment proceedings were discontinued before the Committee issued a decision. 'The apparent reason for this is that many annulment applications are made on a tentative basis, in order to comply with the 120-day application deadline and/or to create leverage for settlement negotiations'. The RKH team must have got a reasonable steer, as regards timing and outcome, from the recent two day 'in-person' ICSID hearing in Madrid.

If RoI fail to get the Award annulled then they know that eventually - after much legal wrangling and delay - they will be faced with a huge bill. The original Award of €190 million + interest is now around €260m and is compounding annually at nearly 8% (3.7% EURIBOR + 4%). By 2027 it will be €320m and RoI will not be up against an AIM minnow - it would be a multi billion pound global litigation funder, red in tooth and claw.

With the new right wing Italian Government in place the RoI lawyers may now be allowed to cut a deal. If RKH were offered, say €200m in full and final settlement, this could save RoI around €100m + several years of legal fees. Even after paying Harbour Litigation €30m + the Specialist Funder's legal fees - RKH would still be much better off than under the Award monetisation deal.

If RoI think the Annulment will be rejected - they may be keen to agree a deal now and call a halt to proceedings before an expensive precedent is set for future cases. If RoI get the Award part annulled, resulting in a reduced pay day - then a deal could still be struck.

Whatever the outcome, RKH still has the Specialist Funder deal on the table and can trigger that by requesting FIG approve the deal so that RKH can complete prior to the 30th June. Further, if ICSID has not arrived at a decision prior to the 30th June - then RKH may opt for the Specialist Funder's Three Tranche deal as stage payments may reduce the risk of an opportunistic T/O bid.

It's complicated but most outcomes look good for RKH and OM is just the Overture for Sea Lion'

"The Navitas company registered in England and Wales is the one with the Production Licence from FIG. If the Gazetted strike off reaches conclusion in 60 days, Gideon will have no licence to produce oil". (AC)

Agreed. However, this assumes that GT intends to continue with this unlisted company as the vehicle for Sea Lion & other future developments. There are alternative scenarios - which may perhaps be connected with the recent frequency of visits to the FI by both Sam and the NVPT team. Just a thought.

DEM

Hi LTT

I think the FIG site merely records the names of the legal entities at the time the licences were issued. Desire and FOGL both still exist as legal entities and are 100% owned by RKH. See page 76 of RKH R&A's :

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Rockhopper-Annual-Report-2022-WEB-FINAL.pdf

Ditto Premier Oil Exploration And Production Limited (POEPL) which was the Premier subsidiary used to hold the Falkland licences - before being acquired by Navitas.

'Don't panic Mr Mannering' !

DEM

Northern sector of the North Falkland Basin (NNFB)

'thesnail' (fka Topdrive) makes reference to this interesting, but currently unlicensed area, 'north of sea lion and north of Johnson'. As mentioned in his post, there has been almost no comment by any of the Falkland exploration companies past or present.

I believe that some years before the Falklands drilling campaign, there was some 'speculative' 2D seismic carried out on the area to the North of the NFB (NNFB) - which appeared to show several potential hot spots for future exploration.

In 2011-12 RKH hired a brand new state of the art seismic ship (MV Polarcus Asima), which after completing the 3D seismic over Sea Lion steamed North and spent several days shooting seismic over the unlicensed area located above PL01 and PL032. No results were ever released AFAIK.

In 2019 three Geologists (Jones, McCarthy & Dodd) working for the British Geological Survey carried out a detailed technical analysis of the area.

Highlights

• Four main depocentres in the NNFB are identified in 2D seismic data.

• NW-SE and NE-SW trending faults controlled syn-rift graben development.

• Six tectonostratigraphic units are identified and described across the NNFB.

• Identification of hydrocarbon plays within early post-rift and syn-rift.

• The NNFB forms an extension of the proven NFB petroleum system.

See attached link to read the entire 12 page open source document:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264817219300832?via%3Dihub

The Northern NFB is currently unlicensed but I imagine there will be considerable interest if FIG include this new area in the next licensing round. At the moment - quite sensibly - I assume FIG are keen to focus on getting First Oil at Sea Lion.

I reckon they will still be drilling the NFB in 20 years time.

DEM

Evening OHT

Great to see you posting again - hope you are well and prospering.

ATB

DEM

Maybe substitute pseudonyms for vassals. (Groucho)

Particularly the 'empty' variety !

DEM

"Ovets seems like the majority of posters think you are evasive around a key question. If I didn't know better Id say you didn't want to provide an answer. Its quite funny. Ill tell you my view, the board's view and the market's view: NO chance of FID this year" (DL/Godders)

Please clarify which Board you are referring to ie RKH or NVPT or Ouija ?

DEM

'There's a reason we havent had an RNS in a long time' (DL/Godders)

Rockhopper issued 17 RNS' in 2023 H2, including:

New Chairman - industry heavyweight, ex CEO at Cairn (12 yes), responsible for collecting $1.2bn award from India.

New Non Exec - 30 yrs industry experience, ex COO at Cairn (10 yrs), oversaw 5 FID, now a Senior VP at ADNOC.

Monetisation of OM Award - likely to net c£100m to RKH in next 6-12 months.

Confirmation of 94% take up of Warrants - great vote of confidence in company.

Confirmation that largest II has increased holding.

Long term investors in RKH know perfectly well that Sam will only issue an RNS if there is hard news to report or if there is a statutory requirement. I know that there are many AIM listed O&G companies who will happily churn out multiple RNS' almost on a daily basis. Never was the expression regarding Empty Vessels more apposite.

As LTT correctly reminds us in his post - Navitas is the Operator of Sea Lion - and we therefore need to get used to regularly checking both the Navitas:

https://navitaspet.com/investor-relation/

and TASE (Tel Aviv Stock Exchange) web sites.

https://maya.tase.co.il/en/company/1688?view=details

DEM

Evening AC

Much as I respect your generally wise and informed posting, I interpret the meaning of Procedural Order 3 differently.

I think it simply means that this is the Third Procedural Order issued in the Annulment Proceedings of this case.

Please see the ICSID case database for this case:

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14

and click on the Procedural Details tab.

On August 6, 2018 'The Tribunal issues Procedural Order No. 3 concerning production of documents'.

ie The numbering of Procedural Orders is sequential and has nothing to do with the subject matter.

Please also refer to the ICSID CONVENTION, REGULATIONS AND RULES - 2006 version, which applies to this case as it commenced prior to the 2022 Revision.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/ICSID%20Convention%20English.pdf

'Chapter III General Procedural Provisions' - commencing on Page 111 - makes no reference to a Procedural Order 3.

'Chapter VII Interpretation, Revision and Annulment of the Award' - commencing on Page 124 - also makes no reference to a Procedural Order 3.

DEM

Good find Mogger. The Job Description (click on link in advert) includes under Main Accountabilities:

"Provide expert environmental policy and regulatory advice and development, as required subject to the

operational and policy mandates of other FIG departments, related to onshore and offshore commercial and

industrial activities, including for oil and gas development, aquaculture and other maritime activities etc".

"Lead in the evaluation of Environmental Impact Assessments subject to the operational and policy mandates of

other FIG departments".

I think the 'direction of travel' by FIG is becoming very clear, whatever some of the naysayers on LSE may claim to the contrary.

DEM

AlmaCogan

A memorable and elegant post with much good advice for Latics & Co - should he deign to dismount from his high horse. With respect, I think that your comments are more charitable than this individual deserves.

DEM

Any remaining doubts regarding President elect Javier Milei, were assuaged when I read the following.

Gideon Tadmor must be rubbing his hands with glee !

DEM

"While Milei's rock-star strutting and mod haircut are widely recognised, what's less discussed is his connection to Judaism.

Milei is a strong supporter of Israel, last year pledging to move Argentina's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, mirroring one of the first moves by President Trump when he took office in early 2017.

And the economist also has a strong tie to the Jewish faith as well as Israel. According to an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais from earlier this year, Milei reads the Torah every single day and regularly converses on Whatsapp with Rabbi Shimon Axel Wahnish, the Chief Rabbi of the Jewish Sephardi Moroccan Community of Argentina".

https://www.thejc.com/news/world/who-is-javier-milei-argentinas-trump-who-studies-torah-and-loves-israel-6VmK4MBPAWtOtE1cZKsfB0

"BUENOS AIRES (JTA) — Argentina has never had a Jewish president. But that concept could move a step closer to reality after a general election in October.

That’s because on Sunday, the leading vote-getter in national primary elections was Javier Milei, a libertarian who wants to convert Argentina’s currency to the US dollar and has made headlines for controversial comments on hot-button topics ranging from climate change to sex education.

He also wants to convert to Judaism".

https://www.timesofisrael.com/argetinas-far-right-presidential-frontrunner-wants-to-become-jewish/

No less than 5 articles in Mercopress reporting on the victory by the far right Libertarian Presidential Candidate Javier Milei over Sergio Massa in the runoff elections in Argentina.

https://en.mercopress.com/argentina

Milei succeeds President Fernández on December 10th. The Workers' Party left-wing leader had openly supported the losing Peronist candidate Sergio Massa. With 97% of the votes counted, Milei beat Massa by 55.76% to 44.23%. A convincing win - probably aided by strong support from former President Macri and former Centrist hopeful Patricia Bullrich, who failed to make the cut at the Oct. 22 general elections.

Since the return of democratic rule and in terms of percentages, Milei became the most voted candidate ever: Javier Milei (2023 - 55.7%), Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2011 - 54.1%), Raúl Alfonsín (1983 - 51.7%), Mauricio Macri (2015 - 51.3%) etc

During the final electoral debate before Sunday’s election, Milei praised Margaret Thatcher as one of “the great leaders in the history of humanity.” Milei – a self-described anarcho-capitalist – has frequently expressed admiration for Thatcher’s free-market policies. But she is still reviled in Argentina for ordering the sinking of the General Belgrano cruiser, killing 323 people on board, during the 1982 war with the UK over the Falkland Islands.

As regards the Falklands - Milei told La Nacion: "What do I propose? Argentina's sovereignty over the Malvinas Islands is non-negotiable. The Malvinas are Argentine. Now we have to see how we are going to get them back. It is clear that the war option is not a solution.

"What we are proposing is to move towards a solution like the one England had with China over the Hong Kong issue and that in this context the position of the people who live on the islands cannot be ignored. You cannot deny that those people are there. You cannot disregard those human beings.

"You have to negotiate with Britain and consider the views of the people who live on the islands. If I am saying that the Malvinas are Argentine, why are there any doubts? I am saying something that is in the national constitution. We are looking for a solution for the Malvinas Islands to return to Argentina through diplomacy, a solution that is viable, that is achievable."

All things considered, Milei's victory is probably good news for the Falklands. There was no way any of the Candidates were going to suggest dropping the Argentine claim to ownership of the Malvinas. In stating that the views of the Falklands population must be taken into account - I suspect that UKGOV and FIG will breathe a sigh of relief. In any case the outgoing government leaves behind annual inflation of 142.7%, poverty above 40%, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2.2% lower than in 2019, negative BCRA reserves, and a negative foreign trade balance. So, I think that South Atlantic affairs will be be consigned to the back burner.

DEM

Good Morning Alma

Do hope your CT scan was uneventful - old age sucks but it sure beats the alternative! How very odd that the Jehova's Witness was allowed to mount a mini recruiting drive at the hospital.

You raise an interesting point. I believe that Fermi's Paradox refers to the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extra-terrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence. In short - where are all these alien creatures which supposedly should exist ?

The solution is very simple as anyone who has visited the RKH bulletin boards will know. The 'other place' (A*V*N) is positively heaving with weird alien life forms - barely recognisable to us as intelligent species and quite unsettling in their bizarre strangeness. Fortunately, we know that the Portal connecting our world with theirs only opened for a few days in the Summer of 2018 and then again in November 2020.

Even our very own LSE (known as the 'Shire') has been invaded by shapeshifting entities who in the blink of a post can morph from an apparently amiable fellow investor into a hissing entity from Zeta Reticula. I was amazed to discover that our jolly, cricket loving - Moody hating, ex-friend Glen (Call me Mr Bumble) was only banned in theory - not in practice - as CFA Charterholders have some sort of 'Get out of jail card' and he had been able to return from the LSE vaults as Latics (Pay attention Boy) except, of course, for when he is Chessmaster (Actually I'm a genius) or any one of over 50 other Avatars which crawled through the Portal in 2020. Truly shocking and not a little discombobulating !

Even more surprising was the big reveal yesterday that Godders99 who we thought was away reprising his role as Marvin the Paranoid Android ("Pardon me for breathing, which I never do anyway so I don't know why I bother to say it, oh God I'm so depressed. Here's another one of those self-satisfied doors. Life! Don't talk to me about my Rockhopper shares) - has returned to LSE as 'Decidedleaverage' (or is the third 'e' really an 'y' ?)

All very confusing and quite disturbing for us private investors who perhaps unwisely believe that it is 'Better to be poor and honest than to be rich and lying'. (Actually 'rich & honest' is better still).

DEM