Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Correction
In the second paragraph I stated that Shenandoah is onshore. This is complete rubbish!
It is located in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, US. Apologies to all.
DEM
"I think Navitas movement on Sea lion was dependent on freeing up capacity in their team that were working on Shennadoah field". (p777)
Apart from both fields being large and acquired by Navitas with no legacy costs (ie low break even point) - as Shennadoah is onshore but Sea Lion is clearly not - I imagine that they may require rather different skill sets? Also, whilst the former is a couple of years ahead of SL - it is still very much WIP.
With the exception of Chanan Wolf who was responsible for raising Navitas’ $1 billion financing for Shenandoah and has/will be relocated from the US to London to be Sea Lion Project Director and head up Navitas Falklands - the first three members of the team are all new hirings, having previously been employed by Murphy Oil. They seem to be exceptionally well qualified and are a good indication IMHO as to how seriously Navitas is committed to the project.
Ian Ramsay - Chief Operating Officer - Sea Lion Project
Ian was VP for Murphy Oil Corporation and led the corporations Global Offshore Development Portfolio from Discovery through to Production. Over 30 years of experience in managing oil and gas operations and delivering new developments. Ian graduated from Napier University, Edinburgh with a BEng (Hons) in Engineering with Management and from Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh with a MSc. in Subsea and Petroleum Engineering.
Thomas Stensgaard - Development Project Manager - Sea Lion Project
Role includes leading all front-end engineering design (FEED), bidding of the project, and execution of the development. Over 30 years of experience in Gas, Petroleum, Oilfield, Pipelines, and Offshore/Onshore Operations. Has a BSc (Hons) in Mechanical Engineering from South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. Strong leadership and project management skills with an MBA from Rice University.
Aleks Armstrong - Vice President Subsurface – Sea Lion project
Aleks leads the Reservoir and Geoscience functions. He began his career in Subsea Engineering, before pivoting to Reservoir Engineering where he specialised in Field Development Planning and Reservoir Management. Over 26 years of experience in oil and gas operations. Aleks holds a BEng (Hons) in Mechanical Engineering from Nottingham Trent University, an MSc in Petroleum Engineering from Imperial College, London and an MBA from Edinburgh Business School.
DEM
My thanks to jockosjungle, for posting up the full text of the FIG Press Release which does of course totally validate Market-Dealer's original post of the 4th March. I do not regret my 'Provenance' post seeking clarity as to the source of the information - it was a reasonable request politely asked IMHO. However, I am sorry that M-D's diligence in reporting an important news item was rewarded with 350+ posts over the next 10 days, many attacking his honesty, integrity and motives.
Whatever Garbled may have been guilty of in the past - in this particular case he was 100% accurate. Mea Culpa for setting that particular hare running.
I do regard the Press Release as extremely good news. As Sam has remarked several times 'It's a very complex deal with a lot of moving parts'. Well - the parts now seem to be coming together and the series of meetings between FIG, NAV, RKH and the FI business community - with the Deputy Director of Overseas Territories at the FCDO also present - would indicate to me that the blue touch paper has been well and truly lit.
The Navitas Chair, Gideon Tadmor - who by all accounts is a 'force of nature' not to be trifled with - met with FIG representatives last year and now again in the FI. The Chairman of Premier, over ten years, never got within a thousand miles of the FI.
Sam has travelled to the FI twice so far this year. I would imagine that whatever matters were discussed and agreed - the decisions taken between the FIG and the JV partners will need to be reported back to the full Company Boards for ratification and then codified into legally binding documents.
Over the previous 7 years there had been considerable work carried out on no less than six different versions of FEED (Front-End Engineering and Design). After six months of intensive work by Ian Ramsay and his expert team, building on their 'predecessor’s high quality work,' we are now almost certainly at the point where FEED is oven ready. The Heads of Terms (HOTs) between RKH and the Contractors must be close to expiry and this may be a significant incentive to NAV/RKH to expedite the FEED review in order to be able to lock into the pre-agreed contractor’s costs at 2019 prices.
FID is a firm decision taken in the Boardroom to proceed with the project – subject only to closing the finance and gaining Regulatory Consent. Once the finance details are all sorted and Regulatory Consent obtained – Project Sanction can take place provided NAV and RKH can demonstrate to the Senior Lenders that they are fully funded up to Project Completion.
Sam has never used RNS' as a PR tool - so whilst there will no doubt be RNS' once MOU, FEED, FID and Sanction are signed off - I doubt that we will get interim progress reports. I would expect that a full description of Sea Lion 'Lite' will be provided at the AGM in June.
In these uncertain times I'm sure both the UK & Israel will welcome First Oil.
Increased holding by 20% in recent weeks. Onward
Investegate has free registration and provides a very efficient RNS service.
In the My Alerts section you can list up to 50 companies - Investegate will email RNS' within minutes of release.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/about.aspx
DEM
Good Evening Market-Dealer
A rare honour to have you posting on the RKH Board, after several years of talking up your substantial ARG and BOR holdings, under your various previous monikers.
It is widely known that both Navitas and Rockhopper have been very busy travelling South in 2023 and no doubt multiple meetings have been held with Teslyn Barkman, Andy Keeling and others.
For the avoidance of any doubt can you please clarify whether you were actually present at the meeting you so eloquently describe - or was it an account provided by a third party? Or, perish the thought, was it a skilful piece of creative writing of a meeting which may or may not have taken place?
Whilst the statements attributed to our Israeli friends may well be quite plausible you will appreciate that they will carry more weight if uttered by Gideon Tadmor than imagined by Garbled.
DEM
Que?
DEM
Good Evening SecretBlueprint
I was sorry to read your post of yesterday. The 2010 ii Cohort never really migrated across to LSE and there are few left from the 'good old days'. I always felt that the 'villains' who used to post on ii and the various other private boards were more akin to loveable rogues, whereas today I think that even the second word in the epithet would flatter most.
IMHO anybody investing in AIM should be prepared to speak to the Directors 1:1 and undertake research using source material. With many AIM companies - the deeper I research, the less I like the company. With RKH the opposite is true - I firmly believe that the pace has quickened since the arrival of Navitas and there are multiple elements which are being progressed at speed. (SM will only ever RNS definites and will rarely report on possibles, maybes or WIP).
Your penultimate paragraph made me flinch. I firmly believe that the acceleration of time as one ages is an as yet unrecognised element of the Theory of Relativity. With parents who were fortunate enough to reach the ages of 95 and 93 - I hope to enjoy the sunlit uplands of all three phases of Sea Lion in full production, despite having reached the Biblical allotted span.
Always enjoyed and respected your posts - invariably well informed, written with both wit and logic, and never afraid to call out those with a dubious Agenda. Thanks also for the support on those occasions when I have talked myself into a corner. Hope you will perhaps retain a few RKH shares in your Non Trading Accounts and will occasionally visit the Board as an Honoured Visitor.
Live long and prosper !
DEM
'Good riddance to bad rubbish,'
On 6 December 2022, she was sentenced to 6 years in prison for corruption. The failed assassination attempt in September due to the gun jamming may or may not have been a genuine attempt. Her health is also not good. Kirchner is nearly 70 and whilst she may avoid prison, surely her political career is over.
Maximo Kirchner - son of two Presidents - is 45, politically active and probably a bigger threat.
DEM
Hi Mogger
Whilst the ICSID text is reasonably easy to read and understand - I will be spreading the detailed line read over the next few days. Too much excitement in one go could be dangerous and like you, I have no desire to have to repeat the exercise. Will post up anything which I find of interest but as you comment - nothing so far which might give the Respondents any hope of a happy ending.
My initial Skim Read turned up the following:
Para 307, Page 110
In its Post-Hearing Brief, the Respondent writes in a footnote that “sovereign debt bears more default risk than ICSID awards, and Dr. Duarte-Silva thus concludes that that [sic] the appropriate rate under this hypothetical would be at most the rate on the sovereign debt of the Italian Republic.”148
Which if I understand this Clause correctly, suggests that RoI are saying that ICSID awards represent a lower risk of not being paid than Sovereign Debt. An interesting admission !
DEM
II. PROCEDURAL HISTORY
Para 5, Page 1
The Tribunal wishes to record, at the outset, that this arbitration is not, nor has it been concerned with whether or not the Ombrina Mare oil and gas field should have actually proceeded to a production stage from the completed exploration stage.
So, RKH winning the ICSID case does not necessarily mean that OM can or will be developed.
Para 7, page 2
The Claimants have never sought, through this arbitration, to overturn that ban (re offshore production close to shore) and force Italy to permit oil production in Ombrina Mare. (Their) claims are solely directed towards the securing of internationally mandated compensation.
So, nobody is attempting to overturn 'Green choices' made by RoI.
Para 19, page 5
witness statements from Ms. Fiona MacAulay, Mr. Roberto Leccese, Mr. Samuel Moody, and Mr. Stewart MacDonald; and expert reports from Richard Boulton and Mr. Peter Velez.
All acting for RKH. Para 43 mentions second witness statements of Mr. Stewart MacDonald, Ms. Fiona MacAulay, and Mr. Roberto Leccese; expert report of Mr. Tim Chapman and second expert report of Mr. Richard Boulton.
See Paras 30 and 51 for RoI witnesses.
Para 57, pages 12/13
The Hearing was held at the World Bank offices in Paris from 4 to 8 February 2019. The following persons were present throughout the Hearing:
There were over 50 individuals present for the entire 5 day hearing - representing the Parties involved. Apart from RKH and RoI the list also includes the entire legal teams, all the expert witnesses, representatives of Harbour Litigation, interpreters etc. Must have cost several million.
Para 68, page 15
The Hearing on Post-Hearing Briefs (“October Hearing”) was held in Paris on 30 October 2019. The following persons were present throughout the October Hearing:
'Only' 17 present at this second 'in-person' meeting.
Paras 75/76/77, page 17
75. On 8 June 2020, the Claimants (RKH) submitted an inquiry to the Tribunal regarding the timeframe within which the Tribunal anticipated issuing its final Award.
76. On the same date, the Tribunal communicated to the Parties that it was too soon to forecast when the Award would be finalized, given the difficult circumstances presented by the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic.
77. On 19 October 2020, the Tribunal informed the Parties that deliberations were advancing steadily, and the Tribunal hoped to be in a position to indicate soon whether the proceedings were to be closed. The Tribunal provided further updates on 30 March, 13 May, and 1 July 2021
I know that over the past two years several posters have been snapping at the heels of SM to try and speed up the process. The above confirms that ICSID were aware of the pressure.
Para 80, page 18
The Tribunal refers to the Respondent’s application to add the CJEU judgment (and Opinion of the Advocate General) in C-741/19 to the file of this case,
But, the Tribunal allows only 5 days and 5 p
So the award is pre-tax and might be 111m euros after tax it seems?
You refer to Para 268 on page100, I think. The following Para 269 states:
Claimants request an award on a pre-tax basis, and make their claim for compensation on pre-tax, fair market value for Ombrina Mare. The Claimants write that “taxation on profits in Italy and taxation on any award in Italy are broadly commensurate” and Mr. Boulton writes that “Rockhopper would be able to deduct or offset certain amounts from its tax liabilities, which further renders appropriate a damages calculation on a pre-, rather than post-, tax basis.”
The Half-Year Results published on 29 Sept 2022 also states:
"Further analysis is required to establish the tax treatment on any payments related to the award".
So, whilst RKH may be liable for tax on the Award - we are probably some way from knowing in which jurisdiction the tax will be paid, how much and when.
When RKH eventually are in receipt of their €194m +€36m interest - I think I can live with Harbour Litigation being paid their 20% share and probably HMG a similar amount. Nice problem to have in a few months time.
DEM
Thanks Mogger - first with the news as always !
Too wet for sweeping leaves - so I think I know what I will be doing today !
DEM
SpaceHoppa
I suspect that Arbiter Dupuy and the RoI legal team are under no illusions as to the futility of the case and understand only too well that further delaying tactics will be increasingly counterproductive. However, such is the churn rate of Italian Governments - even a delay of just a few months will ensure that it is the next PM who has to take the blame and not the present incumbent. Senior Civil Servants will also be anxious that the €250m payment is not made on their 'watch'. Meanwhile, Prof. Maria Malaguti will continue cracking the left wing doctrinal social responsibility whip.
If the RoI lawyers were retained on a No Win - No Fee basis, I think the towel would have been thrown into the ICSID ring a very long time ago. However, as Government employed Advocates they will be happy to continue picking over the entrails of the case until all possible delaying tactics have been exhausted. The penalty interest payable is probably of only minor consideration.
For the same reasons, I think it extremely unlikely that RoI will either make or consider accepting any type of 'deal' - even if common sense dictated otherwise.
DEM
Big thanks to CantSellNow for posting up Prof Dupuy's 'Opinion'. Prof Dupuy's text is interesting if somewhat challenging to the lay reader - I'm reminded of the comment by the Austrian Emperor to Mozart - 'Quite brilliant but too many notes'.
It reads more as an Apologia in which the good Professor seeks to justify why he very regrettably was forced to cast his vote in favour of the Claimants Rockhopper, despite the RoI occupying the moral high ground and deserving to win.
Further, I do not see any compelling argument proffered which might form the basis of a successful claim for Annulment.
But what do I know as a simple but honest non-Academic layman?
I'm sure Latics or one of his doppelgangers will bring their formidable intellects to bear on interpreting Dupuy's verbiage.
DEM
'Can anybody link to a copy?'
Paul Drayton
As mentioned in GAR, it would seem that the Award Doc + presumably the Minority Report have now been released by ICSID. It would certainly be interesting to see a copy as it should give a good indication as to how strong or weak the arguments might be for the requested Annulment. Still tricky actually getting a copy. Whilst the Arbitration lawyer community has access and probably City firms as well - Private Investors will be at the bottom of the food chain.
My source was the Global Arbitration Review (GAR) - Free Trial available but only if you have a 'Company' website.
https://rb.gy/invsfw
The following legal data bases all carried the 2019 OM Judgement re Jurisdiction, so will almost certainly also carry the 2022 Award docs:
Investor-State LawGuide (ISLG)
https://rb.gy/ibxrz7
italaw:
https://rb.gy/x13ncl
JusMundi :
https://rb.gy/l6wgdh
Also of interest - the JusMundi Annual Review of O&G Arbitration:
https://rb.gy/fs4elk
I assume that those legal firms who follow the OM case and other ECT cases, will publish articles concerning the Award on their own web sites/blogs, in due course. The following have all commented on OM in the past: King & Spalding, Charles River Assoc, Reed Smith, Duane Morris London, Aceris Law, Kluwer Arbitration Blog, Oxford Academic 'ICSID Review' etc.
Good Luck !
DEM
A high-profile Energy Charter Treaty award requiring Italy to pay €190 million plus interest to a UK oil and gas company over a ban on offshore drilling is now publicly available. (Global Arbitration Review)
DEM
Thanks Mr.Scar. Tomax appear to supply quite a range of drilling tools. This is their post. I'll leave it to the drilling experts on this Board to draw any conclusions.
Tomax
10h ·
(CAPE TOWN) Three of our tools on way offshore to operator Eco Atlantic on Island Innovator and the Gazania-1 exploration well. Gazania-1 is being drilled approximately 25 kilometres offshore the Northern Cape in the Orange Basin. The basin straddles the offshore waters of Namibia and South Africa. Our tools have done very well in this basin over a long period of time. (Photo: Afrishore)
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=610110084243201&set=a.558625286058348
DEM
I agree Ovets - but if the naysayers are wrong, as I think we both believe them to be, then the equation changes. Timing is everything.
When AIM listed companies get taken over the buyer rarely seems to pay more than a 40% premium to gain control. With a Mkt Cap of £85m - price might be £120-150m.
However, with an almost certain £200m net within two years, the initial price is fully covered. The 35% interest in a fully appraised 500m barrel field is 'bunce' and the real prize.
However, fairly certain that FIG reserve the right to pull the licenses if there is any change of ownership to RKH and the Tax Settlement Deed would also be tripped. HMG might also take a dim view of any bid. BTW I do not accept that Navitas poses any threat. I would be amazed if the company lawyers have not inserted a 'No hostile bid' clause into the Farm In Agreement.
DEM
QUOTE:
"Well, if any potential investor read the posts on this Board they would think RKH is a POS and would be put off.
Share prices are very much driven by the demand for the stock; people wanting to buy into the company's prospects. This BB has become dominated by a small number of posters most of whom state they are shareholders posting regularly; sometimes several times a day; expressing extreme dissatisfaction. Sometimes colourful abusive descriptive terms are used. Distrust of the management expressed in the most explicit way.
I have been disappointed that progress to development has been very slow. I don't whinge every day about how unhappy I am. What do you guys think possible new investors pick up from the repetitive negative postings?
I see light at the end of the tunnel and, that the balance of probabilities is now into the odds-on side as does EDISON. There are never guarantees and I am here with my eyes wide open. If I am wrong, I will not blame anyone else for my decisions".
END QUOTE
Bravo! Wise words indeed - couldn't have expressed it better myself. Time perhaps for Cyan2 to follow his own advice - particularly as the company is in a much stronger position today than it was in 2019 !
Unless of course Cyan2 has a different Agenda to most ordinary folk who celebrate when their company is on a 'roll'. If you are one of those clever, hard and calculating Hedgies with a brief to keep the SP depressed so a 'topiary' of hedge funds can build a platform to launch a hostile bid - then I urge you to take up residence on the 'other' Board who I'm sure will welcome you with open talons. Just a friendly thought to ponder!
DEM
Mrs M
Hello Sam - you're late getting home - another difficult day at the office?
SM
You could say that - big *******ing from Keith at the Board meeting.
Mrs M.
Oh! That's terrible - why? Did he not like your new hairstyle?
SM
Well - you know that investor who wants to micromanage everything we do and demands to see all the contracts before we sign them and insisted that we buy a cheaper brand of coffee?
Mrs M
Ah yes - nice Mr Cyanide? Wasn't he the investor who challenged Gideon to unarmed combat.
SM
Near enough - anyway, he's now out of hospital and is on the warpath.
You recall that Chantelle was arranging for the office to be painted whilst we were away on holiday.
Mrs M
Yes, I remember.
SM
Would you believe it - she forgot to ask Mr Cyan's permission. And worse, she got confused by my Post it note and the ceiling, walls, floors and furniture are now all painted. Wait for it ....
Cyan !
DEM