Member Info for DeusExMachina

Wise words from SecretBP and I concur 100% with his well-argued conclusions.

The facts of the case were very straightforward and the final outcome inevitable - barring some cunning legal sleight of hand. The prime objective of the RoI's lawyers has always been to challenge the ICSID Jurisdiction at every opportunity to try and avoid the collateral damage arising from a very clearcut Precedent and body of case law which will be quoted in ICSID ECT cases for years to come.

As regards timing - the Italian Elections are on September 25th, to be followed no doubt by weeks of haggling over the composition of the next coalition. This interregnum period might be a good time for the RoI to bury bad news.

It is interesting to see that on the RKH website both Ombrina Mare and Monte Grosso are still detailed as RKH Italian assets. A couple of interesting loose ends.

DEM

August 23, 2022
"The Tribunal renders its award; attached to the award is an individual opinion by arbitrator Pierre-Marie Dupuy".

I guess Dupuy was coming under intense pressure from his fellow Arbitrators and the RoI.
The ICSID Rulebook does mention that even in Unanimous Decisions, Individual Opinions are still allowed.

DEM

Hi Citizen - this should work
deusexmachina372@gmail.com

DEM

Thanks Citizen. Tried to send you an email this evening but it has bounced back. Not surprised as the address was probably at least 10 years old ! (It was name.name@talk21.com ) If you are able to let me know your new ISP that would be great - otherwise, I will let you have a 'throw away' gmail address tomorrow.

Would be good to have a chat about certain topics of common interest.
DEM

kr2009
No, there is no Telegram Group AFAIK - why are you so anxious to take discussion off-line. This is the third or fourth time you have tried to switch LSE posters to a Telegram discussion. This is not Russia - open discussion IMHO is both healthy and beneficial to all parties.

Couldn't help but notice that your LSE BB 'Birth Date' was 16th July 2020 - a memorable 24 hour period when over 20 posters registered. By an odd coincidence most seem to want to sack Sam Moody, the Board, hold an EGM, vote against Clause 8, share their inside leg measurement & other confidential private data with GlenMcGonagall1879 and generally rubbish the company.

Once again, I am reminded of how closely your posts ape those of both in style and content of he who was deleted and expunged from the Boards a few months back.

A friendly reminder that this is a Bulletin Board for Private Investors – not for ‘Professionals’.

But I think you will know this already from our earlier encounters.
https://www.lse.co.uk/terms-and-conditions.html

DEM

Hi Yeast - I think precedent is quite important in Arbitration being based on US/UK case law principles and not the Napoleonic codified system in much of Europe. So whilst a good win for RKH may not be a slam dunk for all other similar ECT cases - it would sure help.

I guess that there are more interested parties following this case - both here and on legal forums - than we might imagine.

DEM

I may have got the chronology slightly wrong but Liz Truss really does love karaoke !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7vWtW2RJ3U

DEM

Thanks Citizen.

Apologies if I have mis-remembered but I think we may have met at a Pre Covid BOR AGM at the IOD in Pall Mall. It was the AGM where there were only 3 Private Investors present and Harry Dobson refused to accept a question from a lady private investor - not sure whether it was because she was a lady or a PI or possibly both ! The three of us then retired to the basement bar to enjoy a few beers ?

DEM

“We to are in the middle of an election that will decide who runs our country and not a single candidate mentioned a world class oil field in the Falkland Islands. Despite our interest OM or sea lion isn’t important enough to people wanting to run a country”

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss sent a strong message in support of the Falkland Islands people right to self determination on the fortieth anniversary of the Falklands Liberation, 14 June 1982, while at the same time recalling the effort and sacrifices of the troops sent to ensure that aggression could not succeed.

“We reject any questions over the Falklands' right to self-determination.” “We are determined to protect the Islands marine resources …” (Mercopress)

Liz Truss is well known amongst her Parliamentary friends for her love of karaoke and nobody was surprised when she seized the opportunity to actively promote Rockhopper on Prime Time television. See:

https://rb.gy/blzxly

DEM

Good Morning CitizenTS

The 2022 changes all seem very sensible and are designed to streamline and speed up the whole ICSID Arbitration process. However, your linked Enyo Law article in the last para, confirms that not only do the changes have to be adopted by the EC Conference in November 2022 but then must be ratified by 75% of the Contracting Parties:

“The draft text will now be sent to the Contracting Parties for adoption by the Energy Charter Conference on 22 November 2022. Following adoption, the modernised ECT must be ratified by three quarters of the Contracting Parties before entering into force. The outcome of this process is uncertain, with the decision likely to have significant consequences for future investor-state energy disputes”.

So, this is probably going to take another year or two before it replaces the existing 2006 Agreement.

In any case, the same ENYO article also states that existing fossil fuel investments will have a further 10 years protection:

3. A “flexibility mechanism”: this allows the voluntary exclusion of investment protection for fossil fuels. The EU and the UK have opted to carve-out fossil-fuel related investments from protection for both existing and new investments. Existing investments will have 10 further years of protection whereas new investments made after 15 August 2023 will have no protection.

Finally, even if all the changes came into effect tomorrow and there was no 10 year protection clause – I’m sure that all existing cases would continue to be dealt with under the rules current at case commencement.

So, no problems here.
DEM

The Borg RKH Collective strikes again - that sounds very plausible, Ovets.
DEM

Hi Cubane – yes I agree 100%. My earlier post was unintentionally misleading. Delete the three words ‘For this reason’ and it is slightly clearer.

What I was trying to say was that I wonder if the proximity of the Italian elections is the reason behind the RoI legal team – mostly State Attorneys etc employed by the Government - seeking to delay matters at every opportunity. I imagine the last thing that the existing Government wants, only a few days before the Election, is front page news about a major & costly award to a UK oil company.

If they are indeed trying to obtain a 60d extension – then as the wording of the Clause 46 is non-specific – the Minority Report (assuming there is one) might be used as a convenient reason to submit to the Arbiters ?

I agree that the looming Election will cut no ice at all with the Arbiters, although they will doubtless understand why the RoI legal team are delaying matters at every opportunity.

DEM

ps An English investing friend, commented in an email earlier today that "Sitting here in Italy, I would concur with your thinking. Equally, in my experience of awards following court cases, the ball of deciding the actual amount gets passed round as if a grenade whose pin has been removed".

I am slightly surprised that nobody has mentioned the following - quoted from todays Economist - which might just explain why the Italian team of Government lawyers are trying so hard to ensure that any Award be made after Sept 25th. Any award before the Italian elections will just become another stick for the Opposition Parties to beat the current outgoing Administration.

QUOTE "Italy’s politics can be bewilderingly complex. Five big parties and many small ones will compete in the general election on September 25th. Before that they will shuffle into an uncertain number of electoral alliances. Yet already the race to replace Mario Draghi’s fallen government is boiling down to one question. Is there anything her adversaries can do to prevent Giorgia Meloni (pictured), leader of the hard-right Brothers of Italy (fdi) party, from becoming the next prime minister?

Ms Meloni’s party is part of an alliance that also includes the nationalist Northern League, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and some smaller parties. Polling currently suggests that this group could win more than 45% of votes, which should be enough for a majority in parliament. On July 27th the alliance renewed an agreement which dictates that, should they triumph, the leader of the party with the most votes will become prime minister. Ms Meloni’s party is polling around ten percentage points ahead of the League and 15 points ahead of Forza Italia". ENDQUOTE

For this reason I suspect that the 60 day extension will be granted. 'Rule 46 Preparation of the Award' on page 121 of the ICSID Arbitration Rules states:

"The award (including any individual or dissenting opinion) shall be drawn up and signed within 120 days after closure of the proceeding. The Tribunal may, however, extend this period by a further 60 days if it would otherwise be unable to draw up the award".

IMHO given the rather vague wording - some delay over the submission of the Minority Report could provide a convenient excuse to obtain an additional and final 60 day extension.

This Clause should not be confused with 'Rule 50 The Application' on page 125 of the Rulebook, which states the four grounds (improperly constituted, exceeded powers, serious departure, not stated reasons) for seeking a Post Award Annulment.
https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/ICSID%20Convention%20English.pdf

DEM

Buzz - I disagree.
If all 3 Arbiters agreed than it would be an Unanimous Decision. If 2 Arbiters voted one way and the remaining Arbiter voted a different way than that would be a Split Decision.

According to Clause 3 of 'Rule 47 The Award' on page 122 of the ICSID Rulebook:
"Any member of the Tribunal may attach his individual opinion to the award, whether he dissents from the majority or not, or a statement of his dissent".

If there were four Arbiters with 2 in favour and 2 against - then that would be a tied decision. Which is why there are three Arbiters.

DEM

Yes quite - Argentina and in particular Kirchner - have a long list of international companies who might well be bearing a grudge. Posted a while back but relevant:

Repsol (Spain) – In 2012 President Kirchner proposed the expropriation of 51% of Repsol shares in YPF. Long court case ensued and eventually Argentina were compelled to pay $5bn compensation.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/04/18/us-condemns-ypf-expropriation-as-spain-argentina-trade-war-nears/?sh=316fb9127352

Hess (USA) – US major global independent energy company, still run by the Hess family (one of the leading Jewish companies in NY). Never forgiven Argentina for the Hercules incident in 1982.

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/06/09/world/tanker-attacked-in-south-atlantic.html

DEM

Morning LTT - have a safe journey !

I think we all tend to view projects such as Sea Lion more or less in isolation forgetting that if SL was churning out 80,000 bopd then Argos becomes a no brainer - ditto the SFB fields like Darwin. It's all a question of timing as to when the 'knock on' effect starts to gain traction.

As I have mentioned before, whilst RKH is my largest holding in the O&G Sector, I do hold other companies as well including ECO Atlantic (possible multi bag in Q3/4), Kistos and Serica (two mid cap gas producers in the North Sea with exceptionally strong mngt teams).

Now the reason I am mentioning the above relates to one of the Comments made on LinkedIn concerning the appointment of Ian Ramsay. (Wow! Congratulations Ian. This is a key development for the people of the Falklands. This field is so good. I can't wait to see you and the team develop it. There's going to be tanker traffic anyway now with all the discoveries in Namibia! )

Tanker traffic - hmmm!

Now considering that the most desirable 'post code' in the World for O&G exploration and soon production is the never ending Exxon Discoveries in off shore Guyana, followed by some very prospective fields in offshore Namibia and the Orange Basin in South Africa (see Gazania-1 well spudding in Sept) - not forgetting Brazil - all of a sudden the South Atlantic begins to look extremely busy and the 'Go To' destination for production for the next 20 years.

The Falklands could surely become the Southern Hub for this new South Atlantic Region, rather than being currently perceived as in a far away, remote location on the edge of nowhere.

I reckon Gideon Tadmor knows exactly what he is doing !

DEM

Good Morning SecretBP and many thanks for your kind words. I recall an investor who posted regularly on the II Bulletin Board, who had a vaguely similar name to yours who wrote the Text Book on the subject of Elegant Take Downs. Hope he is well and prospering.

According to Wiki there were no less than three Great Defenestration's of Prague - one of which sparked off the Thirty Year War. So, Defens. do actually happen and have consequences. I guess there is little chance of luring ValleyMan to a RKH Investors Meeting in the Spire of Salisbury Cathedral but I do still have the bucket of tar if the goose can be rounded up !

DEM

ValleyMan claims “Whilst another interesting piece of information there is still a long way to go. I can remember excited announcements in the past of hiring Jungels and it led to nothing”.

In John Buchan's 39 Steps an important plot element is the Music Hall performer Mr Memory who had a prodigious ability to recall facts. He now has a rival – Mr Valley Man – who not only remembers facts from 17 years ago, but even recalls “excited announcements” that never happened!

The company was founded by Sam Moody and Richard Visick in early 2004, and Pierre Jungels (Chair) and Peter Dixon-Clarke (FD) were appointed to the Board of the still unlisted company in Feb 2005. When it listed on AIM in August 2005 the Board was already in place.

So Mr Valley – do you really remember Pierre’s hiring and were you really following the fortunes of an unlisted Company 17 years ago ?? I think not.

As for your comment that the hiring of Pierre Jungels led to nothing – are you not overlooking the Drilling Campaign in 2010/12 with 8 Discovery Wells out of of 10 drills, including the 517mmbls Sea Lion complex.

After 23 posts – all entirely negative – I am once again reminded of how closely your posts ape those of GlenMcGonagall1879 both in style and content - who was deleted and expunged from the Boards about the same time as your latest alias popped up.

And of course the definition of ‘Glen’ is a ‘secluded narrow valley’ – but I think you probably knew that.

DEM

Round up of the most interesting comments from the 95 posted on LinkedIn, including two references to Ian Ramsay getting ‘to finally work on Sea Lion’ plus a reference to Paul Culpin who those who attend RKH AGMs will be familiar with:

Christopher Hulse - Chief Accounting Officer & Controller
Congrats Ian, another project in safe hands!!

Amy Garbowicz - NIRI Rising Leader Under 40, VP of Investor Relations Advisory and Special Situations at Corbin Advisors
Congratulations Ian! So glad you finally get to work on Sea Lion!

John Weber- Retired from Murphy Oil
Congratulations Ian! All the best in your new role. You have all the skills to get your new project online.

Sam Algar - Group Executive Exploration and Subsurface at Beach Energy Ltd
Good on you Ian, good time to be progressing that development. With your energy I’m sure you’ll get it over the line. Good luck.

Glenn Bixler - Offshore Subsurface Manager at Red Willow Production Company
Congratulations, Ian! You finally get to work on Sea Lion! Sure to be an interesting project.

Luis Costa - General Manager at Murphy Oil
Congratulations Ian Ramsay! Navitas has set itself up for success on Sea Lion.

Dave Luetchford, P.E. - Project Manager at DRL of Oil & Gas Projects
Ian - you and Paul Culpin at RH will be a dynamic duo……

Brian LeCompte - Sr. Petrophysicist at Murphy Oil
Wow! Congratulations Ian. This is a key development for the people of the Falklands. This field is so good. I can't wait to see you and the team develop it. There's going to be tanker traffic anyway now with all the discoveries in Namibia!

James Wiseman - Pikka Project Director & Senior Vice President (Alaska BU) at Santos Ltd
Wow! Huge news Ian! Congratulations and I can’t wait to see Sea Lion firing up and getting going. Sea Lion and the area around the asset has so much potential to unlock.

Aleks Armstrong - Subsurface Manager, Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
Congratulations Ian, I’m sure you’ll make a great success of it - under budget and ahead of schedule no doubt!

DEM

Thanks PD - the 60+ comments on Linked In from his Ex-colleagues at Murphy Oil are also well worth reading.
https://rb.gy/yj5im5

Brian LeCompte - Sr. Petrophysicist at Murphy Oil
Wow! Congratulations Ian. This is a key development for the people of the Falklands. This field is so good. I can't wait to see you and the team develop it. There's going to be tanker traffic anyway now with all the discoveries in Namibia!

James Wiseman - Pikka Project Director & Senior Vice President (Alaska BU) at Santos Ltd
Wow! Huge news Ian! Congratulations and I can’t wait to see Sea Lion firing up and getting going. Sea Lion and the area around the asset has so much potential to unlock.

Aleks Armstrong - Subsurface Manager, Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
Congratulations Ian, I’m sure you’ll make a great success of it - under budget and ahead of schedule no doubt!

DEM