Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks Happy for your positive comments !
"If anything it stops Sam spending it on another stupid acquisition".
Unless of course the acquisition ends up netting the company £200m !
Very much doubt that Sam will be distracted from the main chance.
Plenty to keep the company busy for the next ten years opening up the North Falklands Basin.
DEM
From 1:1 conversations with Pierre Jungels and later with Sam, it has long been established that the legal fees & charges from King & Spalding over the past six years have been paid in full by Harbour Litigation - probably through monthly invoicing at a pre-agreed hourly rate. K&S have been paid for work done - irrespective of the final outcome.
From the RNS dated 31 Oct we know that it was also agreed, presumably by all parties, that RKH would pay K&S a success fee of £3m on 'establishing liability and an award requiring Italy to pay over €25 million in damages'. From the tone of the RNS it sounds like RKH and K&S have come to a mutual agreement that perhaps some or all of the £3m will be deferred until RKH itself receives monies from RoI - all conjecture on my part.
With the wisdom of hindsight it is now clear that RKH struck a cracking deal with Harbour Litigation in agreeing to a sliding scale of fees ranging from 50% for a small win (c£25m) to a very reasonable 20% for a mega Award. Well done Sam !
If ICSID do not agree to the 'provisional stay' of the enforcement of the Award then I'm sure RKH and K&S will waste no time in commencing the legal machinery of distraining (seizing) RoI assets - probably in the UK and USA but obviously not in the EU. There was a suggestion at least 18m ago that King & Spalding already had a list of Italian assets in the USA which could be targeted. I had assumed that they carried out this exercise obo RKH, but on reflection as K&S are the leading global player in arbitration litigation, acting on numerous ICSID cases, they probably maintain an up-to-date list of the Top Twenty US assets belonging to just about every country in the world. As K&S are a major US based firm of lawyers, it would not be a difficult task.
At least if the Tribunal has to be reconvened, all the legal work and submissions have already been done which should save both time and money.
Thanks to the success of the Placing, Open Offer & Warrants RKH has more than enough funds for the next 24 months by which time FID & Sanction should be agreed. I firmly believe that any Italian decom costs will be several years away and the Temporary Dock Facility (TDF), after some minor maintenance work to the footbridge, will likely be used by the Sea Lion construction traffic freeing up FIPASS for all other non-SL related shipping. So, no decom costs there either, at least not until SL is on stream.
If RKH need additional funds at any point - then they still have the option to sell or auction off part of the award - despite what the naysayers might believe, the Award already has real monetary value.
And then of course we have Sea Lion ....
DEM
Anyone familiar with Scott Adams brilliant cartoon strip 'Dilbert' will know that Dogbert is Dilbert's dog. Dogbert reminds me in so many ways of certain posters on this Board. Take a bow Godders, LaticsRule, Kurgan3, hydraides, Mirasol, ralph2010, Michael2021, not forgetting the late and unlamented GlenMcGonagall1879 and his dark legions.
Dilbert's anthropomorphic pet dog is the smartest dog on Earth. Often seen in high-ranking consultant or technical support jobs, he constantly abuses his power and fools the management of Dilbert's company. He also enjoys pulling scams on unsuspecting, and usually dull customers to steal their money.
Here are a couple of recent examples of Dogbert (Godders et al) explaining his posting strategy to Dilbert (Rockhopper's honest Private Investors).
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA13zCyE.img?w=800&h=415&q=60&m=2&f=jpg
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA13zCyw.img?w=800&h=415&q=60&m=2&f=jpg
DEM
Thanks for the correction PD
I agree that it seems much more likely it is the Partner at Aedos, who as RKH's largest shareholder already have 6.5%. I wonder if Jon Paul Wood is also on the Register?
Not at all sure precisely what is the status of Aedos - very little recent info online.
DEM
Whackford
The RKH website states that:
'As at 1 October 2022, the Company had been notified of the following shareholdings amounting to 3% or more of the ordinary share capital of the Company, in accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules'.
So, holdings of less than 17.4m shares (3%) will not be reported on the website. Also, like many of the smaller AIM companies, RKH is sometimes rather slow to update their web site.
You may find these websites more informative:
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=RKH:LSE
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROCKHOPPER-EXPLORATION-PL-4005463/company/
There are a number of other Subscription only websites which are updated daily.
Stockopedia is probably one of the best for serious private investors.
https://www.stockopedia.com/
Or, SharePad:
https://www.sharescope.co.uk/sharepad.jsp
I note with interest that Ian Andrew Barclay, based in Vancouver, is an ex President at Royal Bank of Canada.
I seem to remember that BOR also had an investor with a similar background. (ex Cenkos ?)
DEM
In the Mercopress article dated 21 Oct, it states that the Acting Director of Mineral Resources is Dr Andrea Clausen.
https://en.mercopress.com/2022/10/21/falkland-islands-lawmakers-committed-to-enable-oil-production
Dr Andrea Clausen is currently the Director of Natural Resources. Whilst she clearly has lots of senior Admin Experience in the FI incl Chair of the Public Accounts Committee for 8 years, the Chamber of Commerce for 3 years and been a Director of the Board of the Development Corporation for 5 years - not so clear what her O&G credentials are, so presumably only a temporary arrangement until the new DMR is in post.
https://www.falklands.gov.fk/fisheries/about-us/staff/admin-staff/29-dr-andrea-clausen
DEM
Over the past 10 years the Sea Lion team of 60+ full time staff and at a cost to PMO & RKH of c.$300m, have compiled at least two versions of the immensely detailed FEED documentation. ('Front-end engineering and design' is defined as the work required to produce process and engineering documentation of sufficient quality and depth to adequately define the project requirements for detailed engineering, procurement and construction of facilities and to support a ±15% project cost estimate').
The Regulatory interface is also well-advanced, the Environmental Impact Statement public consultation process completed, the Field Development Plan substantially agreed with final update at Sanction and alignment with FIG on key fiscal, commercial and regulatory items. FIG, RKH and NAV have met face2face.
Navitas will wish to read, review and check all docs and this will be carried out by the expert team led by Ian Ramsay. They will also be looking to reduce costs, from the $1.3bn Premier figure (was $1.8bn) to below $1bn. Using a leased FPSO instead of building a new one and seeking to reduce both overall and pre first oil capex. In 2018, Heads of Terms (HOTS) were signed with a number of key contractors with prices fixed, I think, for 5yrs - presumably the JV will be keen to lock in the work at the pre-agreed prices which may otherwise expire in 2023.
Once FEED has been completed and agreed - the JV will progress to 'Final Investment Decision' (FID) which is a firm decision taken by the Board to proceed with the project – subject only to closing the finance and gaining Regulatory Consent. Once these steps are both completed, Project Sanction can also take place.
I'm sure funding is already being actively discussed and once Chanan Wolf (Navitas Deputy CEO) is in London, this will be his main focus. I think CW was responsible for raising all the Shenandoah monies - early and in full. So hopefully no issues there. The larger than expected OM Award will also greatly simplify RKH's share of costs and will probably indirectly make Navitas task slightly easier. I would be surprised if gaining Regulatory Consent from both FIG and HMG is an issue - indeed we are now in the position where all parties want to see Falklands Oil as fast as possible. I think the main 'debating point' with FIG will be over tax rates. (Currently there is a Royalty of 9% on the market value of oil produced and 26% Corporation Tax).
The longstop date for Sea Lion FID and 'Project Sanction' is effectively end 2024 as that is the new end date for the relevant Licences. It is also the date contained in several of the earlier docs submitted to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). However, unlike PMO where unrelated financial issues delayed progress on SL, Navitas are the polar opposite and I will be both surprised and disappointed if FEED, is not completed in the next few months with funding and regulatory consents in place to enable FID and Sanction by the end of 2023 - at long l
Last para suggests FEED at end of this year - should be 2023 of course ! Apologies to anyone who has ordered new car etc.
'The longstop date for Sea Lion FID and 'Project Sanction' is effectively end 2024 as that is the new end date for the relevant Licences. It is also the date contained in several of the earlier docs submitted to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). However, unlike PMO who sought to delay matters at every opportunity, Navitas are the polar opposite and I will be both surprised and disappointed if FEED, is not completed in 2023 with funding and regulatory consents in place to enable FID and Sanction by the end of 2023 - at long last.' DEM
Considerable work has already been undertaken on FEED. Premier & RKH have spent 5+ yrs and over £600m in compiling two sets of FEED documentation - with the Sea Lion team comprising 60 full time specialist staff who wrote and compiled the several thousand pages of immensely detailed text. ('Front-end engineering and design' is defined as the work required to produce process and engineering documentation of sufficient quality and depth to adequately define the project requirements for detailed engineering, procurement and construction of facilities and to support a ±15% project cost estimate').
Navitas will wish to read, review and check all docs and this will be carried out by the expert team led by Ian Ramsay. They will also be looking to reduce costs, from the $1.3bn Premier figure (was $1.8bn) to below $1bn. The RKH in-house team has continued to hone and refine a lower cost FEED. Using a leased FPSO instead of building a new one has been mentioned in Presentations, as has reducing the number of hubs. In 2018, Heads of Terms (HOTS) were signed with a number of key contractors with prices fixed, I think, for 5yrs - presumably the JV will be keen to lock in the work at the pre-agreed prices which may otherwise expire in 2023.
Once FEED has been completed and agreed - the JV will progress to 'Final Investment Decision' (FID) which is a firm decision taken by the Board to proceed with the project – subject only to closing the finance and gaining Regulatory Consent. Once these are both done Project Sanction can also take place.
I'm sure funding is already being actively discussed and once Chanan Wolf (Navitas Deputy CEO) is set up in London, will be his main focus. I think CW was responsible for raising all the Shenandoah monies - early and in full. So hopefully no issues there. The larger than expected OM Award will also greatly simplify RKH's share of costs and will probably indirectly make Navitas task slightly easier. I would be surprised if gaining Regulatory Consent from both FIG and HMG is an issue - indeed we are now in the position where all parties want to see Falklands Oil as fast as possible. I think the main 'debating point' with FIG will be over tax rates. (Currently there is a Royalty of 9% on the market value of oil produced and 26% Corporation Tax).
The longstop date for Sea Lion FID and 'Project Sanction' is effectively end 2024 as that is the new end date for the relevant Licences. It is also the date contained in several of the earlier docs submitted to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE). However, unlike PMO who sought to delay matters at every opportunity, Navitas as the polar opposite and I will be both surprised and disappointed if FEED, is not completed later this year with funding and regulatory consents in place by year end to enable FID and Sanction - at long last.
DEM
'Navitas have been privy to the number for 3+ years'.
Presumably 42.
DEM
Do your research - I did sell - I said so and said I thought it would be worth buying in once there is an FDP in place - maybe 12-24 months away. Mirasol 06-10-22
So why are you still posting here?
Stay with the majors is my advice. Mirasol 27-09-22
So why are you still posting here?
I agree - there is a definite risk of being left on the beach - but I can't see much happening soon and the next serious upwards shift will come when the FDP is approved - but that may be a year away -and first oil is even further away. We've been waiting over 10 years to see a decent return here. I reckon there are better stocks, even better oil stocks, for the next year or so. Mirasol 22-09-22 re RKH
So why are you still posting here?
That could be several years away - there si no agreed or approved plan of development with Navitas AFAIK. I'm afraid this stock will languish until they sign a rig contract - occasional spikes on "news" but its probably now a share to sell and come back in 24 months IMHO. Mirasol 21-09-22 re RKH
So why are you still posting here?
DEM
PS – In any case, have you been granted an exemption from the LSE T’s&C’s ? Specifically:
‘You agree that you will: not post, link to or otherwise publish any content with recommendations to buy or not buy a particular share’
https://www.lse.co.uk/terms-and-conditions.html
Thanks Citizen for your helpful comments.
The Award RNS dated 24 August states that ‘The arbitration panel unanimously held that Italy had breached its obligations under the Energy Charter Treaty entitling Rockhopper to compensation. The award is final and binding on the parties’.
As the Award was Unanimous, I assume that the RoI’s nominated Arbiter Dupuy must have accepted the jurisdiction and power of the ICSID Tribunal to issue an Award. This surely wreaks any claim by RoI for an annulment on the grounds that ‘the Tribunal has manifestly exceeded its powers’.
In any case, the Jurisdiction challenge has already been raised and defeated twice before anyway.
IMHO none of the other four grounds (not properly constituted, corruption, serious departure from rule of procedure and failed to state the reasons) seem likely to have been committed. But of course, I have not had sight of the Award itself.
One further point, for which I unfortunately cannot track down the source but think it may have been mentioned at an AGM, is the fact that the Claimant is apparently allowed to simultaneously lodge several Seizure Notices, or whatever the correct legal term is, in different jurisdictions – even if the total claimed is far in excess of the total value of the Award.
So RKH’s lawyers might end up lodging Notices in London, New York, Toronto and Canberra – to seize £250m of Italian assets in each jurisdiction. At this point most Respondents pay the debt to stem the flow of court hearings, legal fees and negative news stories in four countries.
DEM
I particularly like 'Sea Lion alone is capable of producing at over 120,000 barrels of oil per day with significant upside'.
That's a 50% Uplift on previous estimates - 'we're going to need a bigger boat' !
Onward & Upwards
DEM
Wise words from SecretBP and I concur 100% with his well-argued conclusions.
The facts of the case were very straightforward and the final outcome inevitable - barring some cunning legal sleight of hand. The prime objective of the RoI's lawyers has always been to challenge the ICSID Jurisdiction at every opportunity to try and avoid the collateral damage arising from a very clearcut Precedent and body of case law which will be quoted in ICSID ECT cases for years to come.
As regards timing - the Italian Elections are on September 25th, to be followed no doubt by weeks of haggling over the composition of the next coalition. This interregnum period might be a good time for the RoI to bury bad news.
It is interesting to see that on the RKH website both Ombrina Mare and Monte Grosso are still detailed as RKH Italian assets. A couple of interesting loose ends.
DEM
August 23, 2022
"The Tribunal renders its award; attached to the award is an individual opinion by arbitrator Pierre-Marie Dupuy".
I guess Dupuy was coming under intense pressure from his fellow Arbitrators and the RoI.
The ICSID Rulebook does mention that even in Unanimous Decisions, Individual Opinions are still allowed.
DEM
Hi Citizen - this should work
deusexmachina372@gmail.com
DEM
Thanks Citizen. Tried to send you an email this evening but it has bounced back. Not surprised as the address was probably at least 10 years old ! (It was name.name@talk21.com ) If you are able to let me know your new ISP that would be great - otherwise, I will let you have a 'throw away' gmail address tomorrow.
Would be good to have a chat about certain topics of common interest.
DEM
kr2009
No, there is no Telegram Group AFAIK - why are you so anxious to take discussion off-line. This is the third or fourth time you have tried to switch LSE posters to a Telegram discussion. This is not Russia - open discussion IMHO is both healthy and beneficial to all parties.
Couldn't help but notice that your LSE BB 'Birth Date' was 16th July 2020 - a memorable 24 hour period when over 20 posters registered. By an odd coincidence most seem to want to sack Sam Moody, the Board, hold an EGM, vote against Clause 8, share their inside leg measurement & other confidential private data with GlenMcGonagall1879 and generally rubbish the company.
Once again, I am reminded of how closely your posts ape those of both in style and content of he who was deleted and expunged from the Boards a few months back.
A friendly reminder that this is a Bulletin Board for Private Investors – not for ‘Professionals’.
But I think you will know this already from our earlier encounters.
https://www.lse.co.uk/terms-and-conditions.html
DEM
Hi Yeast - I think precedent is quite important in Arbitration being based on US/UK case law principles and not the Napoleonic codified system in much of Europe. So whilst a good win for RKH may not be a slam dunk for all other similar ECT cases - it would sure help.
I guess that there are more interested parties following this case - both here and on legal forums - than we might imagine.
DEM
I may have got the chronology slightly wrong but Liz Truss really does love karaoke !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7vWtW2RJ3U
DEM