Member Info for Daikihaku1

Reflecting further on the second fpso MOU… the more I think about this and how it was announced out of the blue, the more convinced I am that there is bigger plan being hatched. Navitas would look pretty silly if they end up having to scrap the idea due to their junior partner not being able to fund their share, when they know exactly how rockhopper stands financially.

I see three options:

1. Navitas raise money enough to fund Rockhoppers share similar to the current arrangement.

2. Navitas are in advanced talks with a partner, but not yet ready to announce an agreement. At the same time they want to avoid that securing an FPSO slows their expedited phase 2 plan down so sighs an MOU which they probably have to inform the market before it leaks. This is the most likely scenario I think. Rockhopper dropped that piece of news without any hint at how they might go about financing it, should a firm contract materialise. It has almost a casual tone to it I felt, and RKH are likely involved in talks IMO.

3. RKH funds phase 2 by a combination of raising capital (would explain the new appointments), loan from Navitas and perhaps by selling a further percentage to Navitas (or 3’rd partner).

I know an MOU is not binding, but at the same time I am sure it is not something you sign if you are not being serious. And coming back saying “sorry, our partner couldn’t afford it afterall” doesn’t strike me as professional.

I am more and more certain that things are moving fast beneath the surface, and RKH are in a good place.

If Navitas wants to expedite phase 2, then by all means let them offer us another interest free loan. I can’t see why this announcement of an MOU of a second rig sooner than expected is a bad thing.

Every asset class is taking an absolute pasting today. Stocks, Tech stocks in particular, crypto, gold and most other commodities.

Rockhopper is fine, we are just in a news vacuum and investors know that we are unlikely to see excitement return until drilling starts next year, so are chasing returns elsewhere. Have a good weekend all. At least we are invested in a tangible asset and not trading at a price/earnings over 50 on hopes and expectations

“ What's the catalyst for the three figures ?”

Garbled doubling down on his short!

Brightspot, how many years have the Sun been coming now you recon?

That’s one mean looking penguin of the front cover!

I’m thinking along the same lines Nick. I would feel robbed if we are taken out for 150p. I’ve been in this share long enough to understand what we are sitting on and just because it’s a 100% higher valuation than today, doesn’t mean it’s a good deal for us. Especially in light of what I believe is a multi year commodity bull market. But I must admit that I am increasingly getting the feeling that some bigger plot is being hatched, and that RKH may be too small a fish to fit into that.

250p would also be by lowest price without feeling shortchanged.

I have always planned to stay invested until after first oil, but if I am completely honest I think we are likely to be taken over before. And for that reason I don’t trade these. Imagine after all the frustration and heartbreak over the past 15 years you decide to sell Friday afternoon in case the market drops Monday morning, and then you wake up to a takeover offer and an instant re-rate. 😂

Lol, have to agree with you there Landman.. his smug, arrogant face is probably the most punchable of the entire US administration. Quite an achievement considering the competition 😂😂

Well good luck to them if they base their investment strategy on Trumps impulses. I now have a large part of my portfolio in oil and gas and commodities in general. Oil may drop short term if they agree to open Hormuz, but there will be some serious hangover to deal with. first the oil in tankers have to get to market, that’s a further 6-8 week delay. Insurance premiums will surely remain for a long time, governments will be filling (and increasing) their strategic reserves. Oil and gas has been in the naughty corner for 10+ years so reserves hasn’t been replaced, projects has been put on hold, profits has been spend on dividends and share buybacks rather than exploration and development. We don’t know how much of Irans production can get back to previous levels nor do we know how bad Russias oil industry has been affected by Ukrainian strikes.

The all time high crude price in 2008 is 147usd - adjusted for inflation that is around $200 today and we are currently half of that despite the complete mess we are in and a higher demand for oil today…!

The only scenario I can see that would prevent much higher oil prices in the coming years is a complete financial meltdown. I am past stressing over daily shareprice movements due to the latest insane rant on truth social. Eventually somethings gotta give… and it will. The longer it takes, the closer to first oil in the Falklands we get and the better the timing looks. Imagine what 150$ oil will do to our NPV calculation and our debt repayment timeframe?

I hope so too Nick. I would love to understand how it works though… obviously a 20 mio sell order doesn’t just get filled in a market with an average daily volume of 3 mio shares changing hands. So is it a transfer of share from one institution to another through a broker done outside of the marketplace that then gets registered into the ledger, or is is a 20 Mio sell ordered that has been open for a period of time and only register when the entire order has been filled?

If anyone could explain I would be keen to know?

In any case, let’s hope today marked the grand finale for our 80p seller 😁

“ Well that was costly, and 4 bigger bore wells to drill”,

Well they must think it’s worth it 😉 I would be more concerned if they were offloading acreage

Why so vague about the flowtest results? What about flowrates, connectivity etc?

I don’t think the warrants itself have anything to do with us being stuck in the 78-82 p range. Instead I think the institutions that took up the 53p placing shares are systematically offloading their ordinary shares for a quick 50% proft while keeping the warrants as a 4 year duration, risk-free upside exposure. That a sensible approach to reduce risk, bank a profit and stay exposed the potential upside. While it feels frustrating currently being stuck here, I think that the shareprice holding up as well as it does, is a sign of strength. Of course we have no idea how aggressively they might be offloading, but when they are done is when we will see the next leg up. Let’s hope that is sooner rather han later..

D

I’ve read that too, but the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival, I have no doubt they will endure a great deal of suffering and hardship before they bend the knee to Trump and Netanyahu.

“ I think WTI is going to 70USD once war is done. One school of thought is that Trump wants a deal sorted before his meeting with Xi on Thursday.”

Good luck getting the Iranians onboard with that idea. Another school of thought is that the longer this drags on, the more it favours Iran. The more they can disrupt the energy markets and the closer we get to November, the worse it gets for Trump.

As for 70$ oil after the war. My opinion is that the glut narrative was false even before the war. Years of underinvestment will come home to roost, and depleted strategic reserves not only needs to be refilled after the war, but many nations will need to rethink their reserves and increase them. I don’t see 70$ oil again for a long long time unless we have a massive financial meltdown

Asked chatGPT to list the top 5 highest Helium concentrations ever recorded (nice to see us in the top spot 😁):

Here are the highest helium concentrations ever recorded in natural gas reservoirs (ranked roughly by confirmed maximum levels):

⸻

🏆 Top 5 highest helium concentrations ever recorded

🥇 1. Minnesota, USA (Topaz project)

• ~13.8–14.5% helium

• Type: Primary helium system (not tied to natural gas)

👉 The current world record holder—far above typical fields.

⸻

🥈 2. Rukwa Basin, Tanzania

• Up to ~10% helium

• Type: Primary helium system

👉 First major discovery of helium independent of hydrocarbons.

⸻

🥉 3. Hugoton Gas Field, USA

• ~8% helium

• Type: Natural gas-associated

👉 Historically one of the richest helium-producing regions.

⸻

4. Panhandle–Hugoton Field, USA

• ~7–8% helium

• Type: Natural gas-associated

👉 Supplied a huge portion of U.S. helium for decades.

⸻

5. Saskatchewan helium fields, Canada

• ~2–7% helium

• Type: Helium-focused (low hydrocarbons)

👉 Modern exploration hotspot with consistently high-grade wells.

⸻

📊 Perspective (why this matters)

To put these numbers in context:

• 0.3% → minimum for commercial extraction

• 1–3% → good field

• 5%+ → rare and valuable

• 10%+ → extremely rare

• ~14% → unprecedented

⸻

🧠 Key takeaway

• The jump from ~10% → ~14% is massive in geological terms

• There is a huge gap between #1 and everything else

• Most of the world still operates far below these top concentrations

“ In 2021, for example, the exploration company Pulsar Helium acquired land near Babbitt, Minnesota, where a company searching for nickel had previously found gas with high helium concentrations. Pulsar Helium drilled a well down to 2,200 feet (670 meters) in early 2024 and found a huge gas reservoir with helium concentrations up to 14.5% — the highest the industry has ever seen in North America.”

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/geology/a-huge-helium-shortage-is-looming-but-ancient-rocks-in-earths-crust-may-be-hiding-massive-reservoirs

I agree Ovets, should Nav announce a JV partner on Sealion, that would instantly put an exact market value on RKH’s 35% ownership (assuming they are not involved in the deal) and cause a rather significant rerate I think.

Fair comment BB hoppa, I usually refrain from expressing my political views here, but I am alarmed at what is happening and I am exasperated by the lies and the gaslighting by Trump and his cronies. So I’ll apologise for the comment about his maga followers, but not my views. Enough is enough!

Schlemiel, I’m not sure who that was for, but I am certainly not a lefty. I hated the Biden administration and most of what it stood for, so despite Trumps offputting personality, I was supportive of his reelection. But the guy has clearly lost his mind and we are all about to pay for it. Americans not least, but I suspect about 30% of them haven’t realised it yet.