Member Info for Daikihaku1

Amen to that Norseman!!

It seems to me that the amount raised covers the eventuality that we won’t get the insurance money. I suspect RKH have been pressured to raise funds pronto and couldn’t wait for the insurance funds. Just me speculating, but if I am right I think it is prudent of Sam to manage the risk of having to do another fund raise shortly after this.

I don’t recall the exact calculations in the report, but surely their shareprice estimates was not based on the financing for RKH’s share of getting to first oil appearing out of the blue? It may be that the dilution is slightly higher, but that shouldn’t adjust more than a few pence down I would think..

Marlon, so good to have you posting again!! No one deserves to prosper from this more than you and I wholeheartedly hope you will. Especially if you can find the grit for giving us your insights during the upcoming drilling campaign😁

What a day this has been. I have been out hiking in the mountains all day so have a lot of catching up. Markets seem to like the capital raise- in fact Markets starts to feel like it is slowly falling in love with RKH all over again… at long last I might add!

Congrats everyone, we have just removed at biggest hurdle imo and whether we could have squeezed a few pence more out of the funders or not will soon be irrelevant and long forgotten 😊

D

Paul is correct, Synchrouk it was 👍

I believe the term was coined by “Syncroich” (not sure the spelling is correct

Another box ticked! 😊

Try and prompt ChatGPT with the following phrase. I think many here will find the answer interesting 🙂

“ Which publicly traded small-cap oil companies have the highest upside potential in 2025 from exposure to frontier offshore exploration and development opportunities?”

Have a good day all

Initial flowrates are projected at 120.000 bpd

Neilius, I was curious about the same a while ago and asked ChatGBT. The risk of initial disappointing flow rates are not insignificant according to Chat:

Key Insights on Flowrate Underperformance

1. Global Studies and Trends:

• A Wood Mackenzie study (2016) found that nearly 50% of global oil & gas megaprojects faced production shortfalls at start-up—many due to reservoir underperformance or facility issues.

• A 2013 Deloitte review on upstream project delivery found that over 60% of large E&P projects failed to meet initial production targets.

• Deepwater and frontier offshore projects are especially prone to early flowrate disappointments, due to subsurface uncertainties and engineering complexity.

2. Typical Reasons for Lower-Than-Expected Flow Rates:

• Reservoir complexity: Heterogeneity, unexpected pressure drops, or compartmentalization.

• Drilling issues: Fewer productive zones than modeled, lower permeability, water breakthrough.

• Well performance: Mechanical issues (e.g., sand production, poor completion efficiency).

• Facility constraints: Bottlenecks in processing capacity or commissioning delays.

• Over-optimistic modeling: Early reservoir simulations often rely on sparse data, leading to optimistic assumptions.

3. Examples from Offshore Projects:

• BP’s Thunder Horse in the Gulf of Mexico initially produced far below nameplate capacity due to reservoir and equipment issues.

• Tullow’s Jubilee field in Ghana had early flowrate issues related to well productivity and gas handling.

• Projects in Brazil’s pre-salt fields have also seen flowrates swing significantly, both higher and lower, due to complex geology.

4. Mitigation Strategies:

• Use of extended well tests (EWTs) to improve pre-FID forecasts.

• Conservative planning with phased development (like tiebacks or modular FPSOs).

• Flexible infrastructure design to manage variable production rates.

⸻

🎯 Ballpark Estimate

• 30–60% of offshore projects may initially underperform vs. flowrate expectations.

• However, many of these recover or exceed expectations over time as wells are optimized, new wells are drilled, or facilities are debottlenecked.

Topdrive, and this time the rig is not heading down there to find out if there is oil like last time, but to prepare to produce. The Falkland story is no less tantalising today as it was then. Perhaps even more with all the trials and tribulations that have happened in between, so I think the media coverage will be at least as big and FOMO will set in even worse when the press starts to make comparisons to when oil in the North sea was discovered some 60 odds years ago… we ain’t seen nothin’ yet 😎

Fredman, as far as i remember we will keep 15% of free cash flow until the debt is paid off, but the vast majority of that debt is interest free.

But I am also of the opinion that there will be no dividend until we are debt free

*tick up, I meant

I agree Ovets. Nikb, if you read the link P777 posted at 9.30 this morning, if you haven’t already, it is a reminder what FID unlocks. So raising the very modest amount required by issuing more shares, will likely be seen positive by the market, and I wouldn’t be surprised that we will see another pick up on the back of a successful raise.

P777, thanks for sharing that. Thanks an excellent read. I especially like the sound of :

“ Rockhopper offers a chance to invest in a mini-major in the making”

Credit where it is due.. that was an excellent example of proactive risk management Sam!!

Excellent news! The 31 mio makes everything easier, but I am particularly pleased that they have decided to request a new arbitration. Not that it matter in the short term, but my sense of justice was having having a hard time accepting it if they accepted defeat on this.

Now I wonder if they are granted a new arbitration, if the same insurance company would be interested in going again..? lol

Great start to the week 😊

“ Navitas aren't an exploration company - they're a development outfit (thank god!)”

No but RKH is, and I think what a lot of us is hoping is to see is Sealion developed as planned, then with RKH underpinnned by steady cashflow and the help of additional partner ( by giving up a minimal percentage of Sealion), we get to appraise Isobel, prove up another massive oilfield and then either get taken out at multiples of today’s valuation or farm down further and rinse/repeat. That’s my hope anyway.

Oldscouser, you are an absolute legend for having saved that! Thanks so much for sharing, that was a great re-read😊

To this day I’ll never understand how someone of Marlonmonkeys caliber found the time and inclination to share his knowledge and research on a bulletin board. I truly hope he is well and ends up riding into the sunset feeling vindicated and with a massive bag of Sealion generated money at long last…

I would encourage others to prompt questions into ChatGBT to get unbiased estimates of the value of Sealion to RKH. Those number are just ridiculous:

“ Even Phase 1 only, at $80/bbl, could justify a $2–3 billion valuation for Rockhopper.

• If the full field is developed and oil rises, Rockhopper’s share could generate $15B+ in net cash flow.

• Current market cap: ~$480 million

➤ This implies 5–10x upside potential if development is unlocked and derisked.