Member Info for Daikihaku1

Absolutely, BB3! Beers on me. If anyone clocks how I’m ballin’, we’ll call it top-tier stock picking and definitely not anonymous bulletin-board advice 😁

BB3, my sincere thank you from me as well, for flagging this on the RKH board. I’m sitting on a usd 60000 paper gain here currently, and I wouldn’t have had a clue of this company’s existence had it not been for your off topic post that got me curious to read up on it and take a leap of faith, while I wait for RKh’s next leg up. 😁

Very much appreciated mate 😊

As every explorer does…what’s your point?

This should trigger some buying activity today i would imagine, as some of those funds earmarked for extra shares will go into RKH shares at market price instead

Speaking of flow test.. how long does that take? It has been ages now haven’t it?

Well if there are plans to extract Helium from the moon, you’d think they might find a way do it from Minnesota too! 😁

Ontheslide

FYI: I am able to apply for oversubscribtion, both through my Saxo and retail bank. So it seems that either your bank provides a poor service, or i am less protected in case of foreclosure.. i have no idea which

Kind regards

D

To me it’s just as much the sentiment change a large upward rerating in oil would cause. Everyone hates oil and all oil related investments currently. That will change as soon as demand exceeds supply, talks of peak US shale production etc takes hold and there will be a stampede into oil from everyone except the hardcore Greta Thunburg worshippers. That sentiment change may add as much to the shareprice of oil companies as the increase in NPV, and go from undervalued to overvalued relative to NPV

A very Merry Christmas to all us tenacious rockhoppers.. I don’t know how you feel, but I’m closing 2025 feeing equally relaxed and vindicated. What a year this has been. At the start of the year we had just cleared 20p and the mood was already much improved here compared to the 10 years preceding.

Currently the price of oil is very depressed and there is a lot of talk about an oil glut. Well as we know that pendulum always swings back and forth, and I think that due the underinvestment in oil exploration combined with the rise in global demand, US shale oil facing a rapid decline, it won’t take much for oil to make a violent move north, when the tide turns. Remember how quick it has happened before. In late 2007 oil was usd 60 and early 2008 it was trading over 100.. a few month later.

Sealion has an NPV of USD 1,8b at usd 70 per barrel, you you extrapolate that to $100 oil you get an NPV of $2,5-3,0b, and that’s without the sentiment change that will surely occur in the investment landscape in such scenario. You can then throw the £2 shareprice prediction out the window, and revise it way up. I think the glut could perhaps last until the US midterms as the administration will likely do whatever it takes to keep the oil price low. But I feel more and more certain about that we are perfectly timed for a return of a commodity bullmarket.

This guy seem to agree with that:

https://youtu.be/i5jGbzDuErg?si=9tgz0-Y73MAB7IeE

Smac, it’s the same for me. Saxo appears to have added the rights as a separate position. I assumed it required me to actively decide to take up the rights?😳. Did you need to do anything, or did they just add them to your portfolio and withdrew the money without your involvement?

For diversification, personally I have bought a long term Uranium ETF and a stake in Pulsar Helium. Pulsar are my other high risk bet, now RKH have become a more stable and less nerve racking investment lol. Not a recommendation, just to answer your question(s).

Best, D

Moody blue

I can’t give advise on when to top slice, as RKH is impossible to predict (IMO ofcourse- others will claim to know the exact right time to buy and sell)

But a word of caution on using stop losses on this share. You may end up having your stop losses triggered during a brief drop, only to see the shareprice finish the day in blue. We have seen that many times in the past, most notably during the flash crash many years ago which cost a lot of people a lot of money.

I would advise to avoid stop losses, trust your instinct and research and don’t be overexposed.

We can all aggregate that the share price behaviour makes no sense. The shareprice short term is obviously not being valued on fundamentals, but on retail investor sentiment. Im not bothered, as that will gradually change as we get closer to first oil. There was probably some that banked on a quick profit at FID, and when it dropped sold out which in turn have scared others into selling. Perhaps it is even being manipulated by institutions who knows. But what I do know is that I sleep much better at night after FID was announced. It’s coming home.. at long last. I am of the opinion that we are perfectly placed for the next commodity bullmarket and in 2 years we will be multiples of today’s price, barring a collapse in oil prices and a world wide depression.

I am so delighted and relieved that we have crossed this massive hurdle. Shareprice short term is disappointing, but I was never going to sell now anyway, so it doesn’t really matter. The first hint of a buy out/ take over is going to light a fire under this, and if that doesn’t happen, I’ll just sit back and watch as we progress through each stage of development over the next 2-3 years.

Congrats everyone…we arrived at the end of the beginning, against all odds.

Have a listen to this if you worry about depressed oil prices. He predicts oil companies with good assets will trade at 6-7 x cashflow sometime between 2027-2030 and that oil price will take out the previous high in 2008.

Oil investments has been in the naughty corner for a very long time, and I think we will be timing Sealion first oil perfectly.

https://youtu.be/KYxZOf5XiZ4?si=fxGtPSfww0EcyDm6

Santos, I’ll add to that, that RKH seems to completely fly under the radar as far as I can see. I think this bulletin board is a bit of an echo chamber. Try searching for Rockhopper Exploration in X for example. There is a few posts about RKH and its potential, but almost each and everyone has zero of very few views/likes. That doesn’t scream a red hot retail investor story to me, and makes me confident that FID is far from priced in. All of us long term holders are obviously conditioned to expect disappointment and shattered hopes, and some will sell at the likely spike when FID is announced. But they will likely regret this IMO. Nothing wrong in protecting your initial investment and take some profit, but the story is really just about to begin, and FID is where we move from hopes and dreams to real tangible realisation of unlocking our immense potential. FID will get massive coverage and mainstream retail investors as well as professional will wake up to this. How the shareprice will react the day FID is announced is anyone’s guess. Irrational investor behaviour is impossible to predict, but between announcement and first oil FKH’s shareprice will be far above today’s IMO.

Oil, how about dropping your condescending tone, it’s getting s little tiring

I asked the question: is global oil reserves being replaced at the same rate as they decline, and here is the answer I got. Love the fact that they use Navitas as an example of some of the companies that are in fact bringing new reserves and quote them as saying “they see supply risk emerging in the 2030’ies :

“In short: no, oil reserves are not being replaced at the same rate that existing fields are declining. Here’s what’s happening in more detail:

⸻

🛢️ 1. Decline of existing fields

• Mature oil fields naturally decline at an average rate of 4–6% per year (some even higher without investment in enhanced recovery).

• This means the world needs to add several million barrels per day of new production each year just to keep output flat.

• For example, if global production is ~100 million barrels/day, a 5% decline means 5 million barrels/day must be replaced annually.

⸻

⛽ 2. Replacement of reserves

• The reserve replacement ratio (RRR) measures how much new reserves are added compared to what’s produced.

• Over the last decade, global RRR has consistently been below 100% — meaning the industry is discovering or sanctioning fewer new barrels than it’s extracting.

• From 2010–2020, the global average RRR was roughly 40–70% (varies by year and company).

• The last time the industry consistently replaced all produced reserves was in the early 2000s.

⸻

🌍 3. Why replacement is lagging

• Reduced exploration spending since the 2014 oil price crash.

• Capital discipline: Companies are prioritizing shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks) over new projects.

• ESG and energy transition pressures: Many majors have scaled back long-term exploration for oil, focusing more on gas or renewables.

• Geological limits: Most easy-to-find “elephant” fields have already been discovered.

⸻

🔮 4. Implications

• The current reserve base supports 20–25 years of production at present rates (the reserves-to-production ratio, R/P).

• But with underinvestment, future supply could tighten — especially if demand stays stronger for longer during the energy transition.

• This risk is one reason why companies like Navitas, TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil still pursue new offshore and frontier developments — they see supply risk emerging by the 2030s.”

Interesting Sunday morning read :

From Relic to Renaissance: Why Oil’s Repricing Could Define the Next Decade

The world has decided it does not like oil. One would be hard-pressed to find another commodity so roundly scorned, so dismissed as a relic of another age. And yet, history suggests that such moments of universal disdain are precisely the moments when fortunes are made. We believe oil could well be the best-performing commodity of the next five years, perhaps of the decade.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/from-relic-to-renaissance-the-coming-oil-repricing?utm_campaign=21005594-2025%202Q%20Commentary&utm_content=353166342&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-940698796903878657

Somehow Stupid became Stoops.. you get the gist

I couldn’t understand why I was reading so many stoops posts suddenly, until it dawned on my that I have changed to Brave browser (what an absolutely delight!!) and had forgotten to log in. So I’ve had the unfortunate experience of reading posts from Rolf, HappyInvester and Awkward today. Now I’m seeing green boxes again and my day instantly got better. I can highly recommend it everyone!