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Buffet,
I suggest you read the rns again.. its quite clear in terms of timeline. It also isn't telling italy to lodge any money anywhere... just for ROI and RKH to come to an mutually agreeable way to protect any monies paid / assets seized or frozen in relation to the payment of the award until the annulment process is complete to mitigate any issues with recovery of said assets.
BB3..
" within 30 days of the date of the decision " - the tribunal's decision ( 24/4 ) or the RKH/Italy decision ( if any ) on lodging money in a bank ?
Agreed Paul,
I think enforcing the payment via the courts by freezing and seizing assets will have to be funded externally, but this is a different cost schedule (probably quite costly) from the annulment process (which should be a relatively light cost) and can be handled / financed differently, it may not even need to be lawyers familiar to the arbitration/anulmwnt case but probably will be.
The bigger point being, this may not be needed to be undertaken as it may curently be a case of who blinks first! With RKH not needing to blink untill after the 40 days, and ROI possibly preferring to not to be subject to the actions post 40 days thus blinking first...
Either way, recovery of award only needs to be funded once possible which hasn't been the case until this 40 days plays out.. will be interesting.
If ROI don't fold (settle with RKH in full or part and withdraw from the process) and decide to pay into an escrow, then we can read into this their confidence in gaining a full or partial annulment. Allowing RKH to go after assets would be stupid either way (but I guess its still possible, just can't see the logic on their part).
BB3
I disagree regarding funding and don’t think Rockhopper can fund the whole process (including fighting the annulment proceedings and enforcing payment) from their current financial reserves.
I asked the company about it this afternoon and the response I got was “there are no current arrangements in place but we are considering a number of options”.
I suspect they will now wait to see how the next 30-40 days go before making any decisions on how to proceed. As I have said a few times though, I think they will settle at a discount if Italy are willing.
Happy, your original post.
ISDIS will not have any want or wish to throw out an annulment attempt, its completely ROI right to seek one. They will purely be following the procedural steps to conclude ROI's option to seek one. There won't be any care towards either party, just a middle of the road and fair approach as you can see in the RNS.
If any settlement were to happen it will be when the game is over and in ROI case this could be:
1. At or just before the time the stay is lifted - Likely in the next 30-40 days (if they were just trying it on to delay for as its still in their interest to do so- having assets seized or frozen wont be in their interest) 95%-100% of award IMO as RKH will have them by the short and curlies.
2. At the end of the failed annulment process next year (if they truly believe they have a chance/case to have it part / fully annulled) 100% pay out to RKH if they loose.
The time for 80% or sub that, would have been before the award was rendered in August 22 as thus would have prevented a president being set for future cases against them and fully worth the point to settle.
Again All In My Opinion
BB3
Re. Legal costs and why RKH are self funding this.
I don't believe the costs will be high as this is not ROI battling with RKH on the merits of an annulment. The annulment will be against the award so thus against the process and ICSID actions, inactions and judgements... RKH are basically there to bat down any miss truths, and object to anything nonprocedural which is a far cry from trying to prove ROI had wronged them in the eyes of the law and how much it had cost them (that bit is already done, dusted, and decided upon), this is not an appeal which would aim to reopen evidence etc.
So a much smaller legal team and a lot less strategy, mitigation tactics, and evidence that need to be prepared, reviewed and submitted.. I would imagine 2 lawyers involved in the original arbitration on 10 hours per week would be sufficient (the arbitration would have needed 8-10 fold with many more specialists).
All just my opinion
BB3
Step by Step is how I see it;-
"Tribunal orders Rockhopper & Italy to mitigate the risk of non-recoupment by Italy with the anticipation of the Stay being lifted".
With interest building nicely;-
"As announced on 24 August 2022, the arbitration panel unanimously held that Italy had breached its obligations under the Energy Charter Treaty (the "Award") entitling Rockhopper to compensation of €190 million plus interest at EURIBOR + 4%, compounded annually from 29 January 2016 until time of payment (except the four-month period immediately following the date of the Award)."
Source: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/RKH/update-on-arbitration/15930295
The arbitration result, is what I originally bought back into RKH for, which is progressing nicely,.....since buying back RKH shareholdings, Sea Lion has now also progressed nicely,....back in Sea Lion discovery days, RKH got to £5+ a share before dilution, when RKH didn't have the old DES or FOGL acreages,.....I'm looking for pounds a RKH share, once Sea Lion developed.
BW
Ice-cream pitches are worth a LOT, however I don't think the Republic of Italy own them :)
From the Rns,
''This is to mitigate the perceived risk that,
in the event the Award is annulled,
Italy may not be able to recover ''Italian assets seized or frozen'' by Rockhopper''.
''seized or frozen''
I don't know how this will play out, but as it has been said before, it seems likely that Rock's lawyers will have identified overseas assets, gold bullion, shares in banks or enterprises, embassies, consulates etc.
The embarrassment factor for Italy is of no concern to lawyers, and assuming Italy's annulment is thrown out, Rock will have legally seized assets to log on their books. I do not think it will come to this. After todays RNS, I feel Italy will realise their 'Stay' protection is very time limited, and their options unpalatable.
A face saving settlement for Italy, or the agreement to place funds into escrow, has likely increased, as the prospect of ''seized or frozen'' assets come into prospect. If Italy perceive their annulment case as pretty pointless, which it probably is, then a financial settlement this year is now I feel, much more likely.
This also need to be seen as a side show. As important as $200m is, the main prize is Sea Lion production !!
Tell her to just
“Blow the bloody doors off”
I have been explaining the OM decision and the escrow and seizure of assets issues to my wife and she has posed the question how many Italian ice cream vans and parlours would they need to be seized to cover the award?
Nothing wrong with what he said. One broker (Zeus) has an unrisked NPV of £1.88 for 2C alone!
Fakey. Garbage. Market no dealer. Essex etc etc etc. I’ll not post again till 20p. More lies from the heartbroken and skint investor. Just yet another gut feeling matey.
Nothing to do with OM....IMHO DYOR
This ICSID process isn’t necessarily like normal legal procedure (which can differ from one jurisdiction to another), but i sense the ad hoc committee is sympathetic with RKH, but mustn’t be seen to be taking sides.
Hi LTT, I’m not sure that’s how it works..? If rkh wins the case, then surely 100% of their legal fees are to be paid by Italy irrespective of the amount they win. That’s how I understand it anyways
Have to agree Much, even if the annulment reduces the award for some strange reason by 30%, then I would presume the costs would be split 70% paid by ROI and 30% paid by RKH.
Either way, I feel RKH will have something in place to cover the costs such as giving up a percentage of the award. As was said earlier, 1.2m Euros a month covers more than enough representation fees and then some. IMHO
LTT
The way I read it is that so long as RKH win then the costs of the annulment case will all fall on Italy.
Yes they have to pay for their representation in the run up to the hearing but this should be recoverable so long as the appeal and final judgement remain in their favour.
I suspect the enforcement proceedings and court fees as well as the legal costs for the rest of the annulment case will be more than Rockhopper can afford.
So I would agree a settlement now to get it over & done with, but let’s see what the next update is, probably mid June now.
I’m thinking that the larger legal costs are done with, yes there will be some going forward but this isn’t weeks and months in court.
Yes but Rochopper do not have the money to pay the legal costs, so that means yet another placing, or a funding arrangement. I don’t think anybody wants more dilution, and a funding arrangement will mean giving away a % of the award I suspect.
“ If Italy agree to pay 80-85% now I’d take it, but given how they’ve played this so far I’m not convinced they will.”
I disagree! Italy have had over 6 years to negotiate a settlement. They did not, so that train has left now IMO. They’ll probably be cheeky enough to try, but why would we settle now after a slam dunk? I don’t see Italy having anymore options now…
Canaccord thing the latest Ombrina Mare news today is positive for RKH and reiterates their risked NPV 15 target price of 37p and speculative BUY rating!
Paul Drayton
Can’t see the legal costs outweighing the interest on the award so RKH should hang on in there for 100 %
Someone quoted £1.5m per month- that’s a lot of legal work
GLA
Boboil
This is a good outcome.
As others have noted, Italy and Rock will agree a neutral account for the award payment, or failing agreement Rock will put one in place iaw ICSID guidance.
Heavy hints that eitherway the stay will be lifted in 40 days or so.
Italy have the choice to pay up soon, negotiate a settlement soon, or face proceedings. All are acceptable outcomes for Rock.
The pressure to settle putting monies into a neutral account might be more preferable now than being dragged publicly through courts, ultimately with the same outcome. Main takeaway, the stay is unlikely to stay.
Also noted Rock paying all legal fees, so have rejected the offers to underwrite the annulment case.
Didn't Vinny Jones do something similar to Paul Gascoigne a few years back ?.
The Court has to be fair and reasonable but ....