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I hope that's the case Flipper, maybe not sorted but certainly in the process.
The words "which is expected to".. would steer someone to think there has been talks and advice given that would bring about that "expectation", and an expectation in itself would also imply a non difinitive outcome curently.
Bb3
Apologies for the many I didn't namecheck.. you know who you are..
Fecm, space hopper, dazza the flash etc.etc.etc.
OilBrat, The poster that influenced me to get into the FI stocks, his overall assessment of the basin was spot on, but the blue sky financial outcome still has another 10 years to get there unfortunately (not his fault though).
MarlonMonkey, bar far the most knowledgeable results, drill and reservoir fountain of knowledge ever to grace the old iii board. Time for everyone and never lead anyone up the garden path for his own gain (as far as I know).
Gclark24?, or something like that.. the only person that shared information prior to an rns that seemed to know details that then checked out as true when the rns's finally came.. info was always very close to actual rns, but saved and made me a few Bob (thanks, I will always owe you a beer or two).
Blue horse, the best trader / investor on AIM I have ever met.. knew what he was doing and gave me plenty of advice around protecting capital being the no 1 priority for investing in exploration stocks.. very helpful and knowledgeable (on the information curve and always engaged).. however always had his own agenda and to this day I still think he was involved in the flash crash. Private chat groups and the infamous NM/sold post without explanation went some way to proving manipulation. Listen to but don't trust this one.!
Garbled - incoherent, no inside info, a massive fake that craves attention.
Borgo- utter wtat, professed to know inside info and knew Jack, dressed it up in cryptic stink to claim a different meaning after news.. wanted sheep, got sheep and proceeded to help loose the probably thousands. Would smash the guys face in if I ever met him (on behalf of others, never followed his utter crud).
Fezza, stu, rpoodle, jpdm, longtermthinker?, Paul Drayton, joe80?.. God so many good posters..
Anyways... IT'S FULL OF STARS 🤩❤️
BB3, been a long journey.
Anyone else on this.. been in it for a couple of weeks and seen a 100% move in the share price.
Confirmed a previous find with 12.4%, flow testing to follow as soon.
Not expecting news on Monday, but share price is building in anticipation of a massive helium find on US soil.. will be a takeover for many 100's of millions due to the location, size and concentration of the find.
DYOR as always.. but I know a few on here are also invested..
GO HELIUM
Going from memory,.. all taxes with the cash element of the pmo farm in have been duly paid and the remainder (the carry part) was set aside to be paid at the earliest of ..first oil / change in majority ownership (takeover) / upon payment of any dividend.
Rkh argued successfully that the tax on the carry benefit should only become due once benefit was realised (I.e. First oil) and thus this was not deemed payable in that tax year where as the cash element was.
Bb3
Ahh Thenorseman,
But nit like porn, at least you won't by embarrassed buying them. Lol
Bb3
P.s. love your native Norway.. visited many a time.
Ralph.. get it in an isa and load up your pension pot with it.. in my opinion, you won't be disappointed.
Bb3
Hi LTT.
45p I'm hoping will be an understatement at the start of 2026, because by the end of 2026 we should be producing a 35% share with production ramping up to 55k barrels per day with a gross profit of 50usd pb. Circa 1m per day based on 80usdpb (probably more like .5m per day in year 1 & .75m per day in year 2).. take off royalties of 19% and office overhead of 5m per year and you get around 290m usd (£225m) a year net profit
If 11.5p is a market cap of circa £75m then 45p will be a market cap of circa £290m (assuming the award money in bank has been spent funding development)
Not sure there are many oil producers trading at sub 1.5x yearly earnings..
I'd be looking for at least 8x earnings (considering the average s&p 500 oil and gas 10 year P/E ratio is north of 11.5×) which would give us a share price north of £2.50.
Granted your 45p+ hope is at the start of 2026 and my £2.50 is at the end of 2026... but I think we can both agree that there is substantial share price growth coming our way if this gets the green light.
That green light (FID) in my eyes will be a huge share price value driver and we will get re-rated northwards off the back of it, but highly likely the sp will have tracked a fair bit higher than it is now before the event... steady riser for the next 3-4 years..
BB3.. can't wait, its starting to feel like Christmas eve.
NEILIUS,
I too have broken every self imposed investing rule on this one.. but I've been braking them since it went from 60p-30p?? before they first struck (such a long time ago now).
Sold a bunch on the way up and on the way back down so already very happy with my returns.. however started getting back in big way too early and have been buying heavy since it went below 50p.
Have complete confidence this will one day be producing so will continue to break my investing rules and keep loading up in my, and my kids trading accounts.
P.s. I learnt on the way down some years ago, never recommend a stock to someone else, especially not a friend... buy them a pint or even a car if you have to, at least that way they will always be happy ( hence why I never mark my posts with an opinion - it is a stonking buy though!).
Bb3 - good luck to you Neilius
Hopefully FID would have already been taken, all approvals been given, and the production machine set in motion prior to any possible labour election win.
BB3
Not sure when the tipping point will be in terms of time, but I'm pretty certain that once this tips past the 12 month high (15p) it won't stop to look back.
So I'm my mind the question is what will make this share get above 15p and when is that likely to be..!?
Day volume on the frankfurt ticker.. is a measly 5000 shares, so circa 100 euros worth.. likely to be over the counter matching and hence the large disparity between opening and closing price (someone maybe sold a couple of shares too cheaply at the end of play yesterday, extenuating the gain for today)..
It realy is irrelevant, just like the us traded stock..its just not big enough volume to make the main listing move from an arbitrage perspective.
Bb3
Good luck with this lovely,
All going well that 22k should turn into 100k by the end of the year, and 220k a year or so after that... ISA is the right place for it.
BB3
I don't think a takeover is even possible, there aren't enough main shareholders to build a consensus prior to any bid and the high % of private investors means the outcome of any bid will likely be a gamble.. and in my experience takeovers are only attempted when the buyer pretty much knows they will be able to succeed and at what price prior to starting the process.
The question I ask myself is why would someone attempt a takeover now, when last year would have been a much better opportunity. There is still just as much risk but the company is in a far better position to fend of an unwanted approach. Added to that is the unknown nature of the FIG reaction and approval along with the tax liability of some 60m that would become instantly due to them (not sure this has been formally negotiated away so still effectively in play, even though RKH lawyers don't think they will have to pay due to not receiving the benefits from the premier carry - no tax if there is no benefit/gain)
Navitas.. I would imagine there is a blocker in the farm in agreement to a hostile takeover, and unless the price is right for RKH shareholders then why would this gain any momentum.. added to that if offered in cash would hammer the navitas cash and funding position that would detrimentally impact the development of SL - not therefore advantageous unless its an all share offer, which would be even less appealing to RKH holders, as they have a bigger slice of sealion and the Falkland's through RKH etc.etc.
That said, I think a hostile approach could be made once FID has been taken as it would tick a lot of boxes for any would be suiter from a risk removed perspective that would ultimately allow them to have a go at the SP.
50p would be an insult, but I suspect anything north of 70p would get a lot of holders wanting the deal rather than waiting for £1 ON FIRST OIL 2 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.
Just my opinion.
BB3
Interesting to see others thoughts on when to sell.
I have a plan and hope to stick to it (veered off course many times before and both been rewarded and burnt because of it.)
At 50p I intend to sell 600k of my 3m shares (due to a lot of averaging down over the years) and then sell a further 5% of the remaining pot on any 10p rise thereafter.
If I make it to the date when RKH finally pay dividends then I'll be a happy man, if not and my shares are all sold before then, I'll still be a happy man.
Roll on FID. Been a long long long road to get there.
Bb3
At least give the background facts... yes 20 years, but can't keep up with demand, and it produces a lot of unwanted / low value gas with it.
The Shute Creek Treating Facility (SCTF) processes the gas produced from the LaBarge field. The gas composition entering Shute Creek is 65% CO2, 21% methane, 7% nitrogen, 5% hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and 0.6% helium.
Yana..
I suggest AIM is not the market for you at all... stick to ETF's or large cap stocks if you want more exposure... clearly waiting for next news on this is not the angle to be taking on this as is demonstrated by the curent volume on this.
Do you even know what next news is likely to be? What are you expecting as next news? They have given the market the main meal menu already and its a big fat jucy steak... starter, pudding, side dishes and drinks all to be decided.. but you either like steak or don't.
BB3
Placing shares were sold to large companies that specialise in funding companies via placings.. they in turn would have been selling the shares they already own at the current market value to fund the purchase of the new discounted shares... Once new shares are admitted to the market they will replace the ones already sold by the placing partners.
Placing partners may also choose not to forward sell them, but the business aim of Placing partners is not to gamble and to make a set minimum gain and thus there is usually a discount to the stock price which is negotiated.
You can't buy the Placing shares, they are /have not been offered to all shareholders.. this would be called an open offer if so.
Simple..
One could say that the market cap is over priced and another say its underpriced.
For example.. if the asset is worth 2 billion after tax and it only costs 5 years and 500 million to get it to market, then what would you rate the market cap of that opportunity at the start of the 5 years, assuming they started with no money?.
On balance the market says this opportunity is worth circa 100m.. a few weeks back it looked much more like 10m ... if a jv is announced (speeding up the timeline or reducing the cost) or a further exploration well is announced (potentially adding another asset) or a flow test (reducing risk and possibly increasing estimated asset value), then 100m could seem very cheap indeed...
Market says what its worth at that moment in time.. when more people think its worth more than the share price tends to move up as there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa..
Seems to me that a lot more people think the market cap is to low in comparison to the asset / value creation opportunities that this company has in hand.. thus the large volumes traded and price rising...
Simple really.
BB3 (works the same way down as it does up strangely - it's called a market!😂)
I disagree.
Very few shares have been purchased above the current SP in terms of % of shares in issue and thus any takeover attempt, north of the current SP, would likely be warmly received by the vast majority of shareholders.
With regards to any takeover attempt being above or below fair value, well that's another question entirely and I suspect if it were a lowball offer then it would be quickly followed by a competing offer (such is the need and demand for new resources in this area).
BB3... roll on the Takeover!!