Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

Thanks Paul. That was my question so you know who I am now!

Worth adding that he mentioned that the ESG agenda in the UK contrasts with Israeli appetite and certainly hasn’t helped.

Reading the room they are all as pleased as punch and everything is very much going to plan. The board all looked very comfortable and relaxed.

Not sure we could have asked for more to be honest.

As Warren Buffett famously said, the Stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the inpatient to the patient.

Rockhopper are absolutely an example of this.

Thanks Supra,

Rest assured the right time is in the diary. I was posting late from memory which isn’t what it was!

Will be there for 9:45!

Much

I’ll be there.

Live between Bath and Bristol so will drive there with the aim of arriving at round 10:15.

Hopefully see a number of you there. Should be a fascinating session.

Much

I’m pretty sure if the shoe was in the other foot we would be seeing genocide.

The two of you genuinely support a nation who allows terrorists to build tunnels and ammunition dumps under hospitals and schools?

The Israelis have my unbending and complete support.

I guess there will always be winners and losers, which is why you support a terrorist organisation and you’re in Borders with their stranded assets whilst I’m invested in Rockhopper and Lloyds and support the Israeli right to self defence. :)

Bang on. 68p critical and currently holding.

AGM hopefully the catalyst to move higher.

There is definitely a seller off loading hence the daily uncrossed trade.

Hopefully once they go away we can move higher.

Except when you compare it over 6 months……

The AGM on Tuesday the 30th is going to be fascinating and should provide much needed clarity.

Don’t forget to get your broker letter of representation to ensure you are able to get in.

Much

Looking at the way the share price is behaving and given the finance representative from Navitas now on the Board, I reckon the fundraise has leaked from the underwriting investment banks hence the walking down of the share price over recent weeks.

No doubt shorting is going on as with a fund raise imminent and the inevitable dilution which will follow, the share price is only going one way.

70 p should have been a major support level but it’s fallen through it with no resistance whatsoever.

My thinking is that they have gone out to 3rd parties but that the terms they want have been unacceptable to Nav and Rockhopper and they have therefore made the decision to go it alone.

Assuming a cost of an FPSO at $500 million that would mean Rockhopper having to raise an extra $150 million which at 50p a share means an extra 300 million shares.

However, we now have 70,000 barrels of production a day from the 200 K which at $50 profit per barrel delivers $3.50 million dollars profit a day or $1 billion a year.

Earnings per share of circa 80pand a PE of 12 makes the shares worth £10 assuming everything goes smoothly, the project is perfectly executed and the oil all flows as planned.

It does however mean and even longer wait to realise full value for Rockhopper shareholders unless we get taken out beforehand.

Yes agree. There is no logic to the fall whatsoever. This is being driven either by a shorter with deep pockets taking advantage of the current malaise or fears of a fund raise for the second FPSO.

It would also be consistent with the addition of the Navitas finance representative to the Rockhopper board.

Does anyone have an idea around how much a second FPS is likely to cost and therefore the potential call on Rockhopper shareholders?

Personally, I’d rather be bought out than go through another (3rd) fundraise in as many years unless there is a really strong business case, which makes it a no brainer.

Brilliant find Mogger.

The tide is turning to the point that this is soon going to become a ‘no brainer” as people finally realise that this is going to happen and as LTT states, we start to see a continual stream of buyers wanting to be invested.

At that point the share price should go on quite a run.

Remember you get supercharged upside in the new entity so £1.50 now but with Navitas shares capable of rising inexorably as the new oil province opens up.

And yes you can trade shares in Navitas https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&hs=eyzp&sca_esv=163269b9f9bc3142&hl=en-gb&q=TLV:+NVPT&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRowS3w8sc9YSn9SWtOXmPU5OIKzsgvd80rySypFJLmYoOyBKX4uXj10_UNDdMMDQuSipMteRaxcob4hFkp-IUFhAAAU8qXmkkAAAA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjeloee6OaUAxWgQkEAHb-dAEYQoe4JegQIORAG&biw=834&bih=1045&dpr=2

And finally and for what it’s worth I have form as the one who predicted Rockhopper would take out FOGL 4 weeks before it happened.

Just saying…….

The more I think about this the more certain I am about how this is going to play out.

We know there have been a number of approaches from companies wishing to farm in as stated by Navitas.

Navitas and Rockhopper through an RNS a couple of weeks go stated that a second FPSO would increase production.to 200k barrels per day at peak production, however neither have the money to deliver this.

Solution…….all share offer from Navitas @ circa £1.50 a share for RKH giving the new combined entity 100% control of Sealion.

External major with deep pockets farms in for 40% of Sealion and surrounding acreage providing the capital to bring forward development and bring in a second FPSO.

RKH shareholders can then sell their £1.50 a share value Navitas shares or stay invested via their new Navitas holding.

Thoughts?

Hey Ovets and yes of course you are correct in that TASE is now aligned to international markets.

Monday is going to be very interesting. The RNS of a couple of weeks ago re a second FPSO appeared strange unless there is a plan underway to make it happen.

It’s like me saying I could drive at 200 mph if I had a Ferrari except I don’t so why bother mentioning it????

Something is definitely afoot and given it’s against a backdrop of progress and a higher oil price it bodes well.

This is serious money being thrown around and I would take the price and whether it was a buy or sale with a pinch of salt.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Navitas take us out with an all share issue at say the equivalent of £1.75 a share and then bring in a new partner with deep pockets to accelerate a second fpso and open up the frontier sooner.

That way RKH shareholders have the option to take their money off the table by selling their new Navitas shares or stay in for the longer term as shareholders in the new entity.

Ultimately we’re a bit of a millstone around their neck that needs to be dealt with.

Tomorrow and Monday are going to be very interesting.

Big trades and price being played.

Tomorrow’s results should be interesting (assuming they are released as normal on the 29th).

Can’t help but think the RNS last week was priming the

Market for the introduction of a third party with deep enough pockets to make the second fpso to happen.

Otherwise why even bother to mention it?

Based on previous years, Rockhopper year end results should land two weeks today / tomorrow.

That’s just 10 trading days before we get a proper update which could propel us significantly higher after treading water for over 6 months.

Hopefully exciting times ahead!

EG you are bang on as I recall and yes, feels like both of these potential poison pills have been removed.

IMO any potential acquirer is likely to want to strike as early as possible or risk paying more whilst wanting to ensure Sealion is proceeding as planned.

At the risk of repeating myself, the year end results and AGM are likely to provide a catalyst for the share price with all sorts of information and updates being released.

Exciting times ahead.

Alistair Strang has kindly provided an update on II as follows…..

‘From a chart perspective, Rockhopper actually looks poised for some positive action. Above 91p calculates with the potential of an initial 94p with our longer-term secondary, if bettered, at 105p. Overall, a long-term 150p shall be regarded as exerting influence from the future.’

Make of it what you will….

Make no mistake and as stated previously, I firmly believe this will ultimately play out with us being taken out at a price north of £2.50.

My preference re timing is that fair value is more likely if we are at first oil and Isobel has been duly appraised.

However at the AGM last year I recall Sam being asked about the possibility of a takeover bid to which he responded that it would be unlikely until first oil due to the complexities of the arrangement with Navitas and FIG.

I can’t recall his exact reasons. Anyone else who was there remember the conversation?

Clearly happy to take your shares off you if you are stupid enough to give them up after shenanigans like yesterday.

These guys will be far closer to what is going on behind the scenes than we are so if they are adding, it should serve as a reinforcement of the buy and hold strategy many of us have adopted.

Let's also not forget that Navitas and co are going to be awash with cash given the oil price currently and over the rest of the year.

With our year end results in 3 weeks time and the AGM end of June, things could be just about to get interesting again.

Much