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Thanks Redcain. Much better now.

Forgive the lack of clarity. Navitas don’t have the means to take out Rockhopper.

It’s their partners in Shenandoah who are looking to sell their stakes. Question is why and what do they intend to do with the $10+ billion they are set to realise?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-giants-show-early-interest-us-gulf-deepwater-field-stake-sources-say-2026-04-02/

Apologies Redcain.

No holidays, just been unwell.

Technical analysis is fraught with danger when predicting prices and timescales as there are just too many variables so I would be setting myself up to fail.

JPDM has had a good stab today and I would refer you to his posting, none of which I would disagree with.

However I think the one thing that he is missing is the higher oil price and bid premium which I expect to gradually put some froth on the share price.

The imminent sales of the stakes by Navitas’ lead partners in Shenandoah is a surprising development which will realise many billions of $ for Beacon. My question is why would they want to sell a cash cow unless something even better has come along? They are obviously close to Navitas who have commented that they have been approached by a couple of majors interested in getting involved in the Falklands. Maybe I am just putting 2 and 2 together and making 4 but why sell up a cash cow and realise billions if you have nowhere to employ all that spare capital?

I expect someone to show their hand soon and more to come out at the half year results and AGM.

After all, if you want to get into the Falklands and have billions in cash, the only route is to take out Rockhopper for say £3 a share or £2.7bn and then use the other £2bn to develop the province exponentially for say 14% of Navitas’ stake so they have 51% and you have 49%.

I would love us to get to first oil and a full appraisal of Isobel, however I can’t see us existing in 18 months and believe a takeover at £2.50 + is now how this is going to play out after Trumps games in the Gulf and the new world order.

Excellent Redcain.

I’m sure we can learn from each other in that case.

Welcome to RkH. I look forward to you sharing your insight based upon your experience over the coming weeks and months.

Out of interest, what has drawn you to Rockhopper and to come on board?

Redcain,

To quote you ‘I really couldn't care how successful you've been with your investments’

A shame as you might actually learn something that could make you a lot of money, however I guess that is how you and I differ.

There are some very clever and well informed people on this board who are kind enough to share their expertise for free.

Only a fool looks a gift horse in the mouth.

Redcain, my postings will often have spelling and punctuation errors due to autocorrect and operating on mobile devices during busy days.

It doesn’t stop me being a Grade A English student or a very successful investor. Core holdings over the last 24 months Lloyds and Rockhopper. You can do the maths.

My point is that picking apart people’s postings based on grammar etc is a cheap shot. This board is generally of a very high quality with people from all backgrounds and levels of knowledge and experience free to comment, add value and learn from each other.

Let’s try and keep it that way please…..

A great day and not before time.

The close above 88p is extremely important on a technical basis. However don’t take my word for it, have a read of Alastair Strong on II.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/what-next-rockhopper-exploration-shares-ii537659

In his words, a close above 88p opens the door to £1.19 and then if broken, £1.58.

Given where we are with less than 2 years to first oil, the lassonde curve and oil higher for longer, only a fool would bet against £1.58 in the medium term and considerably higher if someone takes us out in order to buy into the project.

Exciting times ahead.

Much

.

I would imagine he has had firsthand experience of a bear squeeze.

Got to hurt.

‘What price a Rockhopper takeover ? Probably not as such as we would hope, but a fifty to seventy five percent premium would most likely do it in a friendly manner’.

300m barrels worth £21bn at $70 plus in the lowest taxed area in a safe British protectorate plus Isobel and all the other follow ons for $1bn Borgo?

No chance. They would need to pay at least £2.5bn or £2.75 a share and even then they would be getting an absolute bargain, i.e. their hands on all that oil for less than the 10th of its value.

I absolutely expect us to get taken out, but definitely nothing short of £2.50 a share.

Plus, there is the likelihood that if one party moves another might as well so we could end up in a bidding war.

Worth listening to the following from 16 mins if you want to get a proper insight into the latest re Sealion from yesterdays Navitas update.

Trust me it will blow your mind.

https://youtu.be/rQJgIwlw2c8?feature=shared

Unfortunately you’ll need a Babel Fish for the rest of it.

Oh and they also mentioned later on that a number of majors have approached them to discuss farming in.

Rockhopper is where it is at for the next 18 months.

Courtesy of II Alistair Strong who is technically very good.

‘However, for Rockhopper, the immediate situation demands closure above 86p to justify some considerable hope, apparently opening the doors to a medium-term ambition at 119p with our secondary, if beater, at 158p and the need to re-run the numbers should the market sneak above such a level. Presently at 76p, it is one heck of an ambition.

From a near-term perspective, there are some potentials.

Allegedly, above just 77p should bring a boost to an initial 80.3p with our secondary, if bettered, at 87.5p. This should give the market the opportunity to decide whether to close above 86p and kick open the door to a Big Picture perspective’

So there you have it. Exciting times ahead…. It’s an ill wind…..

Thank you for sharing Ladigue.

People if you do nothing else this year, watch this video from 16 mins until Ian has finished and then do not sell a single share until 2030 by which time most of us will be millionaires.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQJgIwlw2c8

The potential here, quality of the project team and planned development to get to 150k barrels a day is nothing short of extraordinary.

Life changing stuff…..

I’d love to play Trump at chess.

Something tells me he is incapable of thinking even one move ahead.

I can only imagine that it’s the Israeli association / involvement / reliance.

The market clearly regards this as being more relevant than the fact that the value of RKHs share of the oil in the ground has increased by more than $4bn since Monday, or an extraordinary 6 x our market cap.

Wise words as always LTT.

I completely agree.

Much

Interesting to note that over the last 48 hours the vale of our circa 300m barrel share of Sealion has increased in value by $3bn or 5 times our market cap!

Yet today the share price heads down as the ‘Bots’ do their thing and keep us in the trading range of 70p to 75p so they can keep manipulating the share price up and down to make a quick buck here and there.

Annoying but when you do the numbers, you realise that at some point true value will be realised be it via a huge re-rating or a takeover.

In the meantime we continue to watch paint dry to amuse ourselves.,

Thanks for sharing Norse.

Fascinating essay. I would recommend that everyone puts aside the time to read this over the weekend. The next 10 years could be fascinating not to mention very, very rewarding…..

A strong capable lead partner is vital with a project like this.

The fact that Navitas are hitting all time highs tells you volumes about what a great company it is and what investors think. Sam played a blinder when he got them on board.

Just matter of time and a bit of news flow required before the Rock starts to head upwards on the back of the Navitas rise.

In the meantime, we appear to have very solid 70p support with 75p being key to any breakout upwards.

My prediction was 92p and we touched a high of 93p which I think was pretty damn good.

This guy is good.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/what-next-rockhopper-exploration-shares-ii537659

Resistance at 86p, £1.19 then £1.58 after which anything is possible.

Hi Nikb..... thanks for confirming.

Same for me and family and I guess everyone else out there.

I can't help but think we're going to see some serious price action when the money comes back in.

Should leave the 'bots' scratching their little heads!