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Chess,

Firstly When I say you are short and I am long I mean in our thinking ie I’m a bull and you are now a bear.

The comparison with Harbour shows considerable nativity on your part. You have completely overlooked the tax position of the two companies which are at opposite ends of the spectrum.

Poor old Harbour could be producing 1 million barrels per day and would still not be making any money for shareholders because it’s all coming out of the North Sea and Rachel Thieves and the UK Exchequer are helping themselves to 108% of their profits.

For the record, Harbour reported a $93 million loss after tax for the full year 2024, primarily due to an effective tax rate of 108% driven by the UK's Energy Profits Levy (EPL), despite achieving a profit before tax of $1.2 billion. The business effectively makes no money for shareholders whatsoever in the crazy world of Ed Milliband and co..

Compare that with Rockhopper who will in Phase 1 will be producing 15k in a an area with tax rates of just 35% made up of 9% royalty on production 26% corporation tax on adjusted chargeable profits with the royalty element able to be reduced if required to encourage further investment.

15k a day when you get to keep 65% of their profits is one of the lowest tax rates in the world for oil production and means at $70 the Rock are making post tax profits of $175m a year, call it £150m a year or EPS of 17p. PE of 10 gives you a share price of £1.75. To conclude, Rockhooper will be far more profitable than Harbour.

Throw in phase 2 and 3 and you get multiples of this and the market is likely to put a much higher PE on Rockhopper given the potential to grow inexorably using cashflow.

Bring in a partner with deep pockets to accelerate the program and to explore Isobel and we’re talking higher multiples again.

The Rock has just become a superb investment opportunity versus a speculative play with the really big money likely to be made over the next 5 years.

And there is then the added fun of us being bought out.

Mark my words, this share price is only going one way over the next 2 years after the shenanigans of the last few days are behind us and the fund raise has been completed with the longer term focused investment banks and funds, more than happy to take the shares off your hands at these prices, assuming you’re naive enough to let them.

I’m here until first oil. Time will tell as to who turns out to be correct, however on this occasion I think it might just be me.

Finally from a technical perspective, 70p is bang on the trend line so after 3 days of losses we may well see a rally off this point on Monday.

Good luck to all whatever your strategy turns out to be from here on.

Oh I understand markets and I know value Chess. I’ve traded for over 35 years and have been able to retire at 56 on the back of it. Seen this kind of situation hundreds of times but thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I’m long, you’re short. Suggest we revisit in 12 months time and we can see who really understands value and how markets operate.

I’m as surprised as everyone else about the impact of FID and fall in the share price, however to date RKH has been a retail investor high stake gamble that has paid off with may of us making 500% + gains in the last 12 months.

It was therefore inevitable that the rise would run out of steam at some point and people would take their money off the table once FID was announced and RKH morphed from being a speculative trade into a longer term investment.

Some things for those with a clear head to consider before acting and the lesson of keeping your head when all around you are losing theirs.

1. Post fund raise there will be circa 900 m shares. At 53p Rockhopper would be valued at £465m of which £200 m will be cash on the balance sheet. So RKH with 2 years to first oil are going to be valued at £265m! Really? I don’t think so and as laughable as the people on here claiming we are headed to 53p.

2. The institutions offered the opportunity to pick up the new shares will be looking to invest long term with the 93p warrants a further inducement to hold. They aren’t stupid so getting in on an opportunity like this after meetings with the company and board with limited risk and downside at a bargain 53p and huge upside potential, is not to be sniffed and tossed away for a quick profit. Mark my words they will hold

At a pound RKH will be valued at £900m with £200m of cash on the balance sheet and 300m barrels of oil worth $18bn due to come out of the ground over the next 10 years.

And then there is Isobel and all the follow on opportunities to be financed from cashflow or new partners and the possibility of a takeover.

As the genius Warren Buffet said ‘Big opportunities come infrequently. When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble.”

Mark my words, once this period of redistribution is over, RKH are heading higher. Don’t therefore be pushed into selling and then being left on the sidelines as longer term investors pick your shares up on the cheap and take the share price up to levels that right now, you can only dream of.

Finally some lessons from the great Warren Buffet to consider…..

Staying Calm: The ability to "keep your head" when others are panicking prevents investors from making emotional, short-sighted decisions like panic-selling at or near the bottom of a market crash, which can lock in significant losses.

Seizing Opportunities: When the market is driven by widespread fear, quality assets often become undervalued, presenting extraordinary buying opportunities for investors with cash reserves and the courage to act against the prevailing sentiment. As Buffett puts it, "widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases".

Focus on Fundamentals: Buffett's approach emphasizes focusing on the intrinsic value and long-term potential of a business rather than short-term price movements or the prevailing market sentiment. This independent thinking

I have to admit to being wrong footed on the performance of the shares today on the announcement of FID. The old age buy on rumour, sell on news springs to mind.

I think a few things have played out here and we may have estimated the amount of overhead supply in the stock from people who bought in at much higher prices years ago and are looking to get their money back. This coupled with a lot of people making the decision to sell on FID regardless has choked off the early rise we saw and give the 'bots' a field day.

I now expect us to re-rate upwards from here over the next few weeks as what has occurred here sinks in and larger investors look to take positions for the long term. plus the fund raise happens.

All good and whilst I would like to be looking at a share price of £1.25 this evening, it looks like we are going to have to wait a little longer.

One final thing in the RNS was that they have sorted out the tax position with FIG which is a real positive and had been a slight concern.

So to summarise, onwards and upwards from here ...... all going to plan nicely.

It's the 15th for me. Failing that the following couple of days.

That means just 3 more trading days to get in here. Anyone that sells now is clinically insane. We should get a pop Thursday into Friday which will take us through the troublesome 88p resistance level.

All shaping up nicely.

Like many I am convinced that Monday the 15th is going to be D-Day so we now have just 5 days of trading before the big announcement.

Anyone looking to get in has limited time so expect us to break out upwards into the nineties next week before we head up to a new significantly higher trading range.

Frankly anyone that sells now needs to see a mental heath specialist.

Good luck all ... the days of endless waiting are finally about to come to an end.......

You do speak some twaddle Happy.

Why on earth would anyone conclude that an event as critical as FID that hasn't happened yet would somehow be priced in? I genuinely can't figure out whether you're naive and stupid, or just playing some sort of game?

However, and to put the record straight for those who are still struggling to put together a plan, a vast new oil province is about to be opened up with multiple follow-on opportunities which will be funded from cashflow or the bringing in of other big players with deep pockets.

The Falkland islanders are about to become the richest people in the world per head of capita. Look at a Norway with its $1trillion sovereign wealth fund if you want an idea of how this turns out 10 years down the road.

Rockhopper are an AIM stock with very few shares in issue even post funding (circa 1bn shares), and when FID is announced and the news hits the markets we’re going to see a feeding frenzy followed by worldwide news and broker coverage which brings me to my point whilst bearing in mind the old adage that no one ever went broke taking a profit.

When FID is announced we’re going to see a feeding frenzy with the stock rising sharply probably into the £1.25 to £1.40 range from where it is going to bounce around a fair bit as people take profits and longer term investors start to take their positions rather than the speculators who have played with this stock over the last 18 months. We'll probably see a pull back and then a steady move higher into something above £1.50 by the time the funding is done and dusted.

As Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham like to point out, the road to riches is buying into growth stories and holding long term as companies like Rockhopper turn into cash machines that self finance inexorable growth and the compounding of dividends rewards long term investors beyond their wildest dreams. Rockhopper is exactly this kind of stock, and trust me they don't come along very often.

So by all means take profits but leave enough skin in the game for the life changing sums of money that are going to be made here over the next decade.

And Happy, please rest assured we all do our own research so need to remind us of the need to do this each time you post.

Can I also suggest you change IMHO to IMMO ...''in my misguided opinion would be a far more fitting as a 'get out clause' in the event anyone was idiotic enough to pay any attention your advice.

I think you’re underestimating the impact of FID Nick.

I’m expecting £1.25 to £1.40.

The charts support the price reaching this level too.

Have seen this kind of apparent weird behaviour in shares I have owned before ahead of break out news. This article explains it pretty well. Hold firm……

Stock prices may fall before a major upward breakout due to market psychology, institutional trading strategies, and technical factors. This temporary decline, sometimes called a "bear trap," can mislead traders into selling just before a price surge.

Factors contributing to the pre-breakout dip….kk

Institutional accumulation: Large institutional investors, or "smart money," may intentionally push prices down by selling shares to create a sense of panic. This allows them to accumulate a larger position in the stock at a lower price before the planned upward move.

Shakeout of weak hands: The temporary downturn forces less-confident retail investors to sell their positions, often out of fear of further losses. This "shakeout" removes excess supply from the market, making it easier for the stock to rise once buying pressure increases.

Triggering stop-loss orders: The price decline can intentionally push the stock below key support levels, triggering the stop-loss orders of many traders. The resulting cascade of forced selling further lowers the price, providing a better entry point for institutional investors.

Misleading technical signals: A bear trap can be characterized by a temporary drop below a significant support level, creating the illusion of a continued downtrend. This false signal attracts short sellers, who are then forced to buy back shares when the price reverses, adding momentum to the breakout.

Market volatility and low liquidity: Bear traps are more common during periods of higher volatility or low liquidity, where smaller trades can have an outsized impact on the stock price. This makes it easier for larger players to manipulate prices and set off false signals.

I hope you will all agree that this is exactly what we are seeing here.

Nasty falls at the moment across the sector and we seem to be bearing the brunt. Surprising given what is imminent but with volumes low its an opportunity for traders and Bots to make a killing and for the weak to have the stock shaken from their hands.

To remind everyone this has traded in a range between 87p and 72p for some time now so it may well test 72p before finding any real support and bouncing back strongly ahead of FID.

As Warren Buffet often like s to remind us, 'be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful'

This may well be one of those moments.

Keep holding, almost there.......

Nice strong rise this afternoon currently up 5p.

Nice little pennant forming and the top of the handle from the cup and handle pattern which fell into shape 10 days ago at 84p.

Make no mistake this is absolutely primed to blow. £1.20 to £1.40 my prediction on FID.

So finally after years of suffering in the wilderness, we finally stand on the edge of greatness and potentially untold riches.

Had I been permitted to wax lyrical and paint a near perfect scenario, it would be pretty much the current situation albeit with a better result from OM.

As others haves stated, a vast new oil province is about to be opened up with multiple follow-on opportunities which can be funded from cashflow or the bringing in of other big players with deep pockets.

The Falkland islanders are about to become the richest people in the world per head of capita. Look at a Norway with its $1trillion sovereign wealth fund if you want an idea of how this turns out 10 years down the road.

Rockhopper are an AIM stock with very few shares in issue even post funding, and when FID is announced and the news hits the markets we’re going to see a feeding frenzy followed by worldwide news and broker coverage.

Which brings me to my point whilst bearing in mind the old adage that no one ever went broke taking a profit.

When FID is announced we’re going to see a feeding frenzy with the stock rising sharply probably into the £1.25 to £1.40 range from where it is going to bounce around a fair bit as people take profits and big longer term investors start to take their positions rather than the speculators who have played with this stock over the last 18 months.

As Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham like to point out, the road to riches is buying into growth stories and holding long term as companies like Rockhopper turn into cash machines that self finance inexorable growth and the compounding of dividends rewards long term investors beyond their wildest dreams.

So by all means take profits but leave enough skin in the game for the life changing sums of money that are going to be made here over the next decade.

Life changing opportunities like this don’t come around very often so make sure you don’t sell and regret what could change the lives of you and your heirs for generations to come.

Whatever you decide to do, enjoy the coming weeks and months. Things are about to get very, very exciting……

Bang on Mike. I had spotted the same pattern emerging.

It's certainly ready to blow ...... yesterday was interesting to say the least.

I expect it to go into the £1.20s / £1.30 s on FID, drop a bit on profit taking and then trend upwards with steady rises to £2.00 at first oil as investors and big money starts to roll in for the long term, not to mention the press coverage that its going to get.

Much

Correct LT (as always).

The Falklands will be the richest nation on the planet per head of capita in 10 years time.

Its exactly why they will do everything they can from their end to get this over the line as fast as possible.

Much

Thanks for posting offshore.

Not sure any of us were aware of this so I would expect an RNS this morning.

Given all the legal arguments have been had, I would estimate the process to take a maximum of 18 months.

LShould serve to be a nice ‘following wind’ / bonus dynamic as we work towards first oil,

Divi, the cash raised will sit as an asset on the balance sheet. So you have more shares but the company becomes instantly worth £150m more due to the cash held.

It's also the enabler to FID which of course will more than offset the increase in equity in terms of the value it adds to RKH.

Should add there is an awful lot of bot trading going on here.

Down 6p as I type at 67p. Had a feeling this was coming.

70p should have seen a bounce. Would imagine stop losses being triggered.

Very odd and extremely perturbing.

I fear something is going on but can’t for the life of me imagine what it is.

Https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/177790-Project-Rec-Form-of-Proxy-CL.pdf

Just a reminder that the EGM passing all the resolutions and enabling the capitals raise is due to take place Tuesday at 10 am.

As soon as the resolution is passed then the money for FID is effectively confirmed and we are financed.

Whilst the pull back from 91p has been painful, it was almost bound to happen ahead of this vitally important catalyst.

Monday likely to be the last opportunity to top up at these prices.

Expect some nervous trading Monday and then a strong rally Tuesday as the news of the successful funding hits the market ps via an RNS shortly after.