Member Info for pauldrayton

I stopped off in Woodstock the other day. His shop is still there but he’s retired to France now.

The Argentina thing is boring now. Milei and subsequent presidents can say what they like to garner public support but they aren’t going to do anything. The Israelis are spending billions of dollars, the UK supports self-determination across the political spectrum and that’s the end of that.

William Perry and Barak Mashraki.

Both in finance.

The RNS was perhaps a bit confusing for those not familiar with the case. Rockhopper took out insurance in case their award was annulled. When it was annulled they claimed on that insurance and received a payout. They are making the point that should they win the resubmitted case and receive payment from Italy then the insurers will be reimbursed.

Has anybody mentioned the return to Q1 2028 for first oil compared to H1 in the previous RNS? It seems the change of location hasn’t delayed things after all.

My guess is we end up with something along the following lines;

Navitas: 40%

New Partner: 32.5%

RKH: 27.5%

Phases 2 & 3 fast-tracked.

For an institution to sell 20 million shares another institution would need to buy them. Not sure that would be possible with some kind of leak.

I think there are only a few institutions holding that many so there should be a Holdings RNS to explain in due course.

In conjunction with the release of its full year results for the year ended 2025, James Menzies (Executive Chairman) and Nick Ingrassia (CEO) will provide a live presentation via Investor Meet Company as part of the Company's forthcoming Annual General Meeting which will be held on 25 June 2026. The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders and further details on how to join the meeting will follow.

“Seek to bring a strategic partner into Temaris during the first half of 2026”.

That’s an interesting schedule given we are only a few weeks away from H2 now.

I personally think the additional cost to have the work done in Asia is minimal in the grand scheme of things and well worth it. Imagine this war had started once Aoka Mizu was already in Dubai and it got stranded, or even attacked. This change makes a lot of sense and was something I’d been worried about (can they get a slot in Asia at short notice and would it cost significantly more?). It turns out they can and it’s much less of a cost increase than I thought.

Also the comments regarding a second FPSO are not an attention-diverter. That may be how some CEOs operate but anybody who has followed RKH over the years will know that’s not what Sam Moody does, and neither do Navitas. If they are talking about a second FPSO now and an expedited second phase then you can be pretty certain it’s going to happen.

Thanks both, I must have had February in my head for the ‘award’ rather than Q2 for the ‘signing’.

As you say only a few weeks to find out now if they’ve been successful.

The beauty of Seascape at the moment is that Kertang offers enormous upside but it’s not all about exploration and it’s not priced in at all. If they deliver the FDPs for DEWA & Temaris this year as planned then the current market cap is way too cheap for those alone, so I would expect the share price to be higher without even taking into account Kertang (which will no doubt create a stir when the drillbit starts turning).

Does anybody know the reason why the allocation of blocks PM507 & PM509 didn’t happen in February and it still hasn’t been announced now? I would guess that would hold up any farm out discussions as well.

Https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-fletcher-b202123?

Trump also said the conflict would last only 4 weeks and that Iran had agreed to a “great” deal.

It seems as though he has lost control of the situation.

There weren’t many gulf states with significant spare capacity were there? And probably fewer now. UAE were already regularly exceeding their quota - any real cuts were made by Saudi anyway. It’s still not in any producing country’s interests to push prices down.

It’s difficult to predict what will happen to oil prices in the short, medium and long term at the moment because it really depends on how much demand destruction there is and how the global economy fares. But the reality is that the ‘glut’ has disappeared and strategic reserves are drawing down at alarming rates. Those strategic reserves will need to be replenished when all this is over and that in itself will boost demand.

I also suspect that sources of supply outside of the Gulf will be in demand.

I still don’t see a takeover offer coming until after first oil. Not many companies were interested in the Falkland Islands in the first place, and although the finance is in place and development sanctioned, I think predators would wait until it’s been producing for a while. That’s not to say a third party won’t join beforehand but in that instance I’d expect it to be for a portion of Navitas’ ownership rather than RKH’s. £6 in 5 years rather than £1.50 next year imho.

Presumably the new acreage (if they are awarded it) would be part of any farm out deal. So is it likely there would be a bit of a delay between the two announcements…?

I’d be interested in nikb’s take on this given he expected $100 Brent sooner or later regardless.

Is the market now pricing in expectations of an end to the conflict or a global recession with massive demand destruction? Given the indices haven’t dropped like a stone it seems to be the former, but a lot of damage has already been done to global supplies which could take years to resolve. If Iran’s criteria for opening the Hormuz Strait is genuine then I can’t see an end to this soon - there is no way the other Gulf states (or their customers) would agree to a tariff. Where does Trump go from here? Who knows a crisis is unfolding and oil reserves in safe(r) jurisdictions are going to become even more sought after I’d imagine.

I’m encouraged that both Navitas and Rockhopper are reiterating first oil early 2028 despite the current global headwinds/turmoil.

I’m sure Ian Ramsay & the new COO are working hard to ensure everything goes to plan.