Member Info for pauldrayton

Agree SH. SM said November for a reason - he was confident about that at the AGm and he’s stood by it since as well. That’s not too far away though now.

Buzz, no I haven’t. I closed some spreadbets I had open because they were well in profit and I wanted the money out to do some refurb work but I haven’t sold any shares. Last purchase was 12p a few days before the rise began - at the time i was a bit annoyed with myself because I’d paid 14p a few days before!

Still here donalb and spot on Alma!

Gazelle,

Yes whilst I’m loathe to discuss other companies away from their respective forums, RKH and SEA both seem to have had a positive run over the past year and I’m hoping they both have a bright future.

RKH obviously have a wonderful asset in Sea Lion and huge potential for growth with a large stake in the North Falkland Basin. SEA are behind in terms of routes to production but have a much smaller market cap at present. Two exciting companies entering growth phases - it’s AIM so anything can happen but hopefully these companies are in the right places at the moment.

I stand by pretty much everything I said Zengas, in particular the bit about Hammer & Ingrassia.

I will give some credit to Ingrassia for getting involved with Kertang but I credit Menzies mainly for the turnaround.

I think end of ‘26 or early ‘27 is realistic for Kertang and hopefully they will announce a firm rig slot soon.

It’s fine by me because they’ve got plenty of other bits going on and the crowds are likely to arrive prior to the big drill. By this time next year I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the share price heading towards £2 on speculation (plus the inherent underlying value of SEA’s other assets).

Don’t forget that there are still a lot of private investors who sold at various points recently only to see the share price rise.

Trump tariffs, oil price drop, OM annulment, AGM, fund raise etc all caused some investors to sell their shares, following which the share price continued to rise. Those same investors are now desperate for the share price to drop so that they can buy back in. Others are annoyed they didn’t buy in when the share price was lower so they want it to drop too.

I’m not convinced that will happen. In fact over the next few years I suspect canny Israeli institutions/investors will soak up the sells and slowly but surely RKH will transition from being mostly owned by PIs to mostly owned by institutions who have the patience to accumulate whilst others panic or attempt to trade it.

40 working days is 8 weeks which would be end of August.

LTT, you were at the AGM so I’m sure you probably heard Sam insinuate as much.

He seemed to suggest that FID is likely to be the start of lots of activity.

Comparing RKH & BOR is like comparing apples with pears. RKH had a fully appraised oil field with a number of cored wells, a flow test and years’ worth of FEED when Navitas farmed in. BOR have a single discovery well.

It’s interesting to hear the figures some posters are expecting/wanting but I’d be interested to know if any of them can point towards that sort of money being paid for a single untested discovery well anywhere in the world?

If all goes to plan and RKH can survive to Phases 3 or 4 then I suspect £6 will be cheap.

A lot needs to happen but they have 35% and the oil in place will keep growing.

Interesting discussion marlon.

Sam Moody is 55 so whilst he’s not a spring chicken anymore, he’s got a bit of time left in him and after all this wait I’m sure he will want to see the full value of Rockhopper realised.

Once Sea Lion is in production a lot of doors will start to open both in their current acreage and other parts of the NFB (and possibly the SFB).

I believe/hope the £6+ will come but like you say there are a few different ways to skin this cat.

Agree that walking away from Sea Lion was a massive strategic error, and thought so at the time.

Let’s hope the government sees sense on the North Sea but I won’t hold my breath.

I still think HBR have a bright future mind you.

Marunam/SH, I sincerely hope you are right.

I just fear that palms have been greased and it won’t be withdrawn now, but hope I’m wrong.

I suspect the conditional part of the placing is only conditional because they don’t have the authority to issue more than 25% of shares in issue without a General Merting.

Agree with SH, net to Navitas. 17,500bopd net to RKH in Phase 1:

Northern Area Phase 1 + Phase 2 peak production rate 55,000 bbls/day, increasing up to 150,000 bbls/day once all phases have been developed

· Production breakeven approximately US$24 per barrel (Phase 1, 2 and 3)

Phase 1

The Phase 1 scope is over the northern development area of Sea Lion and is designed to recover 170 mmbbls through the drilling of seven oil producer wells, one gas injector and three water injector wells (11 in total). Peak production from Phase 1 is expected to be approximately 50,000 bopd. Five producers and one water injector is expected to be drilled prior to First Oil. The wells will be tied into a leased FPSO.

The financing plans, including senior bank debt, for the Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Development are progressing well and Navitas is targeting FID by the end of 2025 with First Oil planned for the first quarter of 2028.

Thanks Stevo, always appreciate your analysis on the financials.

A steady rise to 220p at first oil would be nearly a three bagger over the next 2 and a half years so still quite a hefty return from here.

It feels reasonable for Sea Lion but I do think at that stage (assuming it all goes successfully) the rest of the license potential will start to get priced in as well.

Thanks for posting that JEBR - very interesting and useful.

I suspect by end of August.

RKH and SEA look like they are both on a far better trajectory than they were a couple of years ago. Difficult to compare the two side by side though.