Member Info for pauldrayton

Not sure if these have been posted on here already. Apologies if so:

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Sea-Lion-2024-Economic-Impact-Assessment-Technical-Report-290525-final.pdf

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Sea-Lion-Project-Social-Impact-Assessment-June-2025-2.pdf

The NPV10 is £1.4bn. That’s £1.56 per share on a fully diluted basis (after placing shares and warrants are issued).

That’s the ‘current’ valuation from the CPR. It’s already been discounted by 10% per year.

So every year that NPV increases by 10%. This time next year that will be £1.72, the following year it will be £1.89 and the year after that it will be £2.08 (around first oil).

That is based on the project economics of Sea Lion development alone and excludes future exploration/appraisal/development.

Apologies Alma, you’re right. I meant NPV10.

It’s not my valuation buzz, it’s the independent expert (Competent Person’s). Like I said, even if you discount it 20% for operational risk and add zero value for anything other than Sea Lion then you still get a share price of £1.24.

The current share price is a 52% discount to NAV (which has already been discounted by 10%). That feels way too much to me but like I said you can apply whichever discounts you feel comfortable with and make your own judgement on value. The Israeli institutions and the market at large will do the same.

Buzz,

What was Navitas’ share price in mid 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025?

It doesn’t look to me like the rise all came at first oil (or even the 6-12 months preceding).

Https://fitv.co.fk/news-and-events/navitas-sea-lion-project-report-sets-out-positive-and-negative-impact-on-the-falkland-islands/

Agreed. With the excitement I personally see the share price closer to £1.50 than £1 at FID now but we shall see. It’s all about the future of the basin once Sea Lion gets the green light, it can’t be looked at in isolation.

40 days. If that’s working days it’s 8 weeks so end of August.

Surely the easiest way to calculate fair value is the recent CPR. An NPV10 of £1.4bn is equal to £1.55 fully diluted with the additional shares.

Whilst Sea Lion is a relatively simple development by today’s standards you could argue there should still be an operational risk discount. If we call that 20% we’d be at £1.24 at FID.

You could equally argue there should be a premium for unlocking the basin and future potential.

It all depends what discounts and premiums you want to add but FID certainly doesn’t look priced in to me.

Aoka Mizu.

ZYX,

MM is far better qualified than I am to comment on the Isobel reservoir quality but from my conversation with Sam at the AGM he seemed to have no concerns on that front (whilst acknowledging it needs appraising properly).

I can’t remember if the company ever released a follow-up to their initial well result RNS but no negative comment was made about the quality of the Isobel and Isobel deep sands.

They did comment that the reservoir quality was poor in the Elaine South and Irene fans because they were at the very edges, but no such statement was made about Isobel. In fact they stated that the Isobel/Elaine complex “is highly likely to contain a commercially viable quantity of recoverable oil.”

Although they obviously couldn’t log the initial Isobel Deep well, the fact it flowed naturally up the wellbore gives some indication.

I think the opposite to you and believe the partners see Isobel/Elaine as an exciting next step after Sea Lion. When they will appraise it I wouldn’t like to guess.

One thing that crossed my mind with RKH’s placing (and the continued buying in the background) is that Israeli institutions will hold a large portion of RKH and this might actually help in terms of defending predatory offers later down the line. The Israelis are generally shrewd and won’t be giving things away on the cheap. They could well end up being our allies.

I think I’d much rather have them on board than the likes of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and BoA.

It just gets better and better. Another piece of the jigsaw slots into place.

Full steam ahead now.

NastyNick,

The NFB is ‘relatively’ small at just 200km x 50km and thanks to the consolidation of the FI minnows (excluding Argos), Rockhopper own a sizeable chunk of it.

You’re right that not all of those 60 billion barrels will be on RKH’s license areas and not all of them will be recoverable but I think 5 billion barrels net to Rockhopper (yes net to Rockhopper) on their licenses will end up being conservative.

If those 5 billion barrels were all produced with a profit of $40/bbl that’s worth $200bn (£150bn). With a billion shares in issue that’s equal to £150/share. I’m sure (as others are) that Rockhopper will be taken out long before all those barrels are discovered let alone produced but the scale of the potential here is probably beyond even the most wild rampers’ imaginations!

Put very simply, Sea Lion FID is the key that unlocks a 60 billion barrel basin.

I suppose most of what’s written on here could be described as speculative buzz, although I guess that’s what a forum is for.

Don’t forget circa 185m shares (placing & warrants) were issued at 7p & 9p, and once the buying pressure started here they haven’t been too much of an issue in terms of resistance to share price increases.

I think we are likely to see the new shares and warrants being tightly held because the ground has shifted here. We are now looking at a basin which likely holds 60billion+ barrels of oil and could be producing for decades. This little AIM minnow is about to become a beast, and some of the hottest property in O&G.

I know you’ve been very negative since you sold out buzz, but I think you’re missing the point.

Why would the additional shares need to be “mopped up”? The Israeli institutions have bought them to keep, not to flip. And they’re buying even more now at higher prices.

Once those shares are in issue FID will have taken place and Rockhopper will be a very different beast. Sea Lion will be on its way to production and a new oil province about to be opened. Sea Lion FID was always just the first step - it’s the key that opens the door to an enormous oil & gas basin. Like I said, I doubt very much the Israeli institutions are going to want to flip their shares so that others can reap the rewards that follow.

We have an interesting dynamic here now.

We’ve all seen the standard AIM placings, following which the share price drops down towards the placing price as the institutions who took part flip their shares on for a 10-20% gain.

Despite the brief dip this morning, that doesn’t appear to be happening here. In fact, quite the opposite - we’ve seen immense buying pressure all day at prices well above the placing price. This leads me to believe that the Israeli institutions aren’t satisfied with just holding onto their placing allocations - they want more and they’re prepared to pay for it. Who knows what they’re prepared bid up to at this stage but their appetite is strong. They will know Gideon, they will know Navitas and they will know what’s happening behind the scenes.

It makes it a very difficult share to trade because at the moment they seem to be willing to mop up whatever people are wanting to sell. I had sort of hoped that this would be a private investor success story once Sea Lion reached FID given the lack of institutions on board during the fallow years, but the shares are slowly shifting into Israeli hands and I doubt they are here for a quick buck. A new oil province beckons and RKH is their vehicle to own a significant part of it.

I’d be interested in the response you get SpaceHoppa.

I’m as frustrated as you about the size and price of the raise given the obvious demand right now, but there is nothing I can do to change it now and I’m just looking forward to Sea Lion in production and the NFB taking off.

I still see £1+ if FID goes ahead (which is looking not and more likely by the day) and multiples of that in the years to come.

Also those 80p warrants will be expecting a serious return over the next few years.

Some people still aren’t quite grasping how big this is.