Member Info for pauldrayton

Desperate Divi with his imaginary shorts is back.

I suspect that those who took part in the placing are far more likely to want to forward sell their 80p warrants than their 53p placing shares. They would probably look for a 10-20% premium so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some resistance around 88-96p once the share price starts rising again.

FIG aren’t hanging around with their recruitment now either:

https://www.falklands.gov.fk/humanresources/fig-job-opportunities

There wasn’t any ‘market moving’ news between last November and FID two weeks ago, yet the share price rose 6x. It’s because FID within 12 months became inevitable. I suspect the same will happen with first oil - there won’t be any ‘market moving’ news over the next couple of years. A rig will head down, the FPSO will get upgraded, development wells will get drilled etc. it’s no longer about ‘market moving’ news (unless for example another partner joins) but a process towards first oil. Yes there are technical and macroeconomic risks but in general I suspect the market will begin to price in first oil as that milestone gets closer. And yes, just like at FID, there will probably be some shareholders who sell on the news. But the important thing is where the share price goes between now & then.

Excellent news. All systems go.

That would be the ideal scenario nikb.

There is a good chance that Sea Lion FID has been timed to perfection.

Gardie,

Several reasons. Firstly lower oil prices reduce inflation and also drive economic growth. Higher economic growth = higher demand for oil.

Secondly lower oil prices generally reduces the amount of exploration and also the number of development projects getting to FID. That means lower supply in the future.

Higher demand and lower supply means oil prices are subsequently likely to rise (once Sea Lion is on stream).

The one thing I’ve been concerned about is an oil price spike before Sea Lion is in production - I would much prefer that happened 3-4 years from now.

A low oil price for the next couple of years is ideal for RKH buzz. The important thing was getting FID over the line.

It’s shaping up to be the perfect storm for Rockhopper.

If all goes to plan development-wise then I suspect £1.80-£2.20 at first oil.

Sam felt (when I asked him) that it’s highly unlikely an offer would come before first oil. His opinion was that should they get Phase 1 on stream successfully then they could well become a target at or before Phase 2. I’m inclined to agree.

Phil I’ve never told anybody to sell BOR (or any other share for that matter). I’ve just given my honest opinion on the likelihood of BOR getting a deal that benefits shareholders. I may end up being wrong but I haven’t been yet.

Noble Endeavor is the rig.

I doubt any company would wait until they’re going to run out of cash in 2-3 months before raising again. I (for a change!) agree with Anth - if there is no dealin the next 3 months then they will have to look to raise more funds again.

Tom Campbell (ex Cairn) is Logistics Manager:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-campbell-6877b81a?

It does often happen in December p777. Now that FID is in the bag I’d be very happy with a $55-65 price range for a couple of years. It won’t delay Sea Lion and when RKH are producing prices are likely to be much higher.

Desperate Divi - I’m not sure reminding you of your trades could be considered personal abuse, as much as you may be pained by them.

Buzz you’ve made the point again - Sea Lion won’t be producing for 2.5 years.

Divi I explained yesterday why you’re desperate.

You sold out at 42p and then put fantasy shorts on.

Ovets is right, you’ve answered your own question and somehow come up with the wrong answer there buzz!

Desperate Divi is back.

The danger for RKH was an oil price collapse delaying FID. Now that FID has been taken, there is no going back and the last thing Navitas will want is to slow things down.

An oil price of $55-65 over the next couple of years would be ideal for Rockhopper as there will be less exploration and fewer development projects sanctioned, leading the way to demand outstripping supply when Sea Lion is ramping up.

I certainly don’t want high oil prices now.

Now that FID has been made a couple of years of low oil prices would be ideal for RKH.

Well Divi you sold all your shares at 42p when you panicked over Trump’s tariffs and then shorted at 48p, 53p and 56p. You haven’t closed those shorts or bought any shares so I suspect you’re pretty desperate for the share price to come down now (hence your poor attempt to scaremonger).