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93.9%.
640,578,764 Shares in issue. Let’s hope that’s the last of the dilution.
The windfall tax only applies to production in the UK, hence this move to diversify to other jurisdictions.
Sunak, Hunt & Starmer should take note, but they won’t.
In my mind the most simple way to calculate where the share price should be now is as follows:
HBR have 770m shares in issue that were trading for circa 245p prior to the announcement = Market Cap £1.9bn.
They are issuing an additional 920m shares = £1.69bn shares total after the acquisition.
They are paying £8.8bn for the Wintershall assets, plus Harbour’s previous value of £1.9bn = £10.7bn.
Subtract the debt they are taking on (£3.86bn) and you get a value of £6.84bn.
£6.84bn / 1.69bn shares = share price of £4.05.
If we take the view that Harbour was undervalued at 245p and true value was the 360p that Wintershall shareholders are getting then:
770m x 360p = fair Harbour value of £2.77bn.
£2.77bn + £8.8bn = £11.57bn - £3.86bn debt = £7.71bn / 1.69bn shares = £4.56
So assuming we don’t think Harbour have overpaid, I would expect a minimum share price of £4.05 and a fair value of £4.56.
This doesn’t factor into account any synergies, growth potential or the fact that Harbour might have got a good deal etc - it’s just a simple way of looking at how the company should be valued today. £4-4.50 seems right at the moment to me on a basic level, and I can see £5+ in the next 24-48 months.
You need to factor in debt into those valuations but £3 is clearly very wrong.
The market is quiet, lots of people on holiday. Also no time yet to digest the enormity of this deal. There will also inevitably be profit takers along the way with such a large uplift.
When the dust settles my guess is £4 by end of Q1 at the latest (possibly much sooner) and £4.50-5 by end of 2024.
Surely £3.60 is the ‘starting point’ here but I would have guessed £4+ on that news. Current share price makes no sense given the deal.
Could have been part of the reason they ditched Sea Lion. Huge deal.
In fairness to Rockhopper, whilst they may be criticised for their negotiations in the past, they’ve done a pretty good job here.
It’s a disgrace that the arbitration process will have taken at least 7 years to get a final decision, and would take quite a lot longer to secure payment. No wonder countries like Italy act the way they do, and Rockhopper should really benefit from the whole amount but in the end this is a pretty decent outcome should Sea Lion development go ahead as planned.
Don’t forget we are still 3 years away from first oil, and even further from potential shareholder returns in terms of dividends so don’t expect the share price to rise overnight.
This is still a medium-long term play with some obstacles in the way. Should Navitas proceed as we hope with securing finance & FID next year then we should see a gradual increase in the share price over the next 3-5 years but this isn’t a jam tomorrow share. The hot market money will be chasing other things for a while yet, but the foundations look strong now. No point watching the share price daily, it’s a matter of patience if you have any - if not then dabble elsewhere and try to get back in again later.
The hearing is scheduled for January and it can take anything from 1 to 12 months to hear the outcome.
Could they be warrants being issued?
More confirmation that neither this government nor its opposition have a clue what they are doing.
Shame on them.
SVM held 8.6% (second largest shareholding).
Looks like they are out completely.
Thanks Mogger, and headder for the translation.
Next steps FIG approval, rig LOI, FID and finance.
This time in 3 years Rodders!
Isn’t it plausible that if the warrants are largely unexercised, that RKH may be able to place at a higher price next year anyway should there be material progress on Sea Lion and a positive outcome with the annulment case? I guess the question is how long can they last without raising further?
This board is bad enough without borgo (BrightSpot)’s input.
The elections in Argentina are merely a sideshow and will have no impact on what Navitas are currently doing or will do in the future. If they do influence the timing of any announcements (which I personally doubt), then it would only be by a matter of weeks so it doesn’t matter anyway.
Meanwhile the Navitas Falklands office continues to grow.
Nothing new but no nasty surprises. Navitas still on track for FID next year and they are looking at all angles to monetise the OM award.
Majority of warrants remain unexercised.
RKH half year results are usually out towards the end of September so we may get a bit more info on the current status of both the arbitration and Sea Lion then.
Euribor has been above 4% for a few months now and will likely edge higher now.
This transaction won’t have any relation to Velocette. Still early days there.
The two new recruits seem very competent though and good to have on board.