Member Info for pauldrayton

True Stevo but would those existing holders have piled in for more shares at 53p had the Israelis not done so. And would they have driven the share price so high in the first place?

I think long term shareholder could have been offered a bigger piece of the pie but ultimately they got what they needed at the appropriate time and we all had plenty of opportunities to buy sub 53p if we wanted.

Not sure when individual shareholders find out their allocations and when any ‘excess’ payments are refunded.

If Menzies knows him well and trusts him that’s good enough for me.

FWIW by the way my opinion differs from Alma’s. I think RKH will see first oil.

Navitas have maintained since the start that they want to remain Operator in the Falkland Islands and that they would only negotiate the entrance of a third party from a position of strength (ie. With funding secured). Even the “future phases of Sea Lion will be funded from cashflow” is telling the market they don’t actually need anyone so they have to pay the right amount to get involved.

I think the tie up at 65% with JHI enables them to farm down 15-25% of significant E&P assets across the NFB whilst still remaining Operator and being the majority holder.

I don’t think a RKH takeover would happen until after first oil, and the demonstration that production is in line with expectations etc, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another partner come in for a portion of Navitas’ share before then.

Alma - the best poster on these boards since the video days.

Very sorry to see you leave.

Keep us updated when your books are published.

All the best and thanks for all the laughs and insights.

Great news for the basin. Do RKH need any more for the time being? Plenty to go at for now in their licenses. Not sure if Marlon has changed his mind since but I remember him being unexcited by the Argos acreage a few years back.

I see this as a big positive for the NFB and therefore RKH though.

I can’t imagine there will be many shares left for the oversubscribers. My guess would be 5-10% but nothing significant.

Disagree with what exactly gus0?

By well connected, if you mean your cosy off the record chats with Harry then I’m afraid I view them with the scepticism that you ought to as well.

Sunk costs discovering Darwin are irrelevant to its value and therefore BOR’s value.

A company could spend £2bn in exploration and find nothing. That £2bn has gone.

The discovery is only worth what the discovery is worth and all the money getting there has no relevance whatsoever.

So in the worst case scenario should BOR’s licenses be revoked, the company would be worth nothing.

I’m not convinced that will happen because FIG have been pretty lenient in the past but there is no guarantee that won’t change should fresh interest arise and BOR have done nothing for years other than cover the license fees.

I don’t think heavy oil in Venezuela has any impact on gas in Malaysia.

Desperate Divi, you spent the best part of two decades posting daily on the Falkland Island message boards. So obsessed with the related companies that when you got banned and had to change your username, you changed it to ‘falklandinvestor’ and ‘fablkandi’ etc. You ramped DES & ARG as they disappeared into oblivion and then focussed on BOR who still haven’t managed to find a partner.

Just as it was becoming obvious that one of the companies involved had finally (15 years after discovering Sea Lion) got close to FID, you wet yourself over Trump’s tariffs and sold out for 42p and told everyone that FID would be delayed. As the share price continues to rise you claimed to have shorted at 48p, 53p and 58p - each time telling everyone here that the share price was going to fall. But it didn’t, it kept going up and you were wrong on every occasion.

Now you’re telling people the share price will drop again and expect people to listen you you when you’ve got everything else wrong.

The share price may go up or down from here but one thing is for certain - you haven’t got a clue.

Desperate Divi, why do you keep repeating your nonsense?

Can you ask AI where it got the information from?

I’m slightly confused as to why it wouldn’t be neutral if the market has known about this for some time.

Also, are we certain the shares haven’t already entered the market?

According to this morning’s RNS, ION Fund Management issued a TR1 Holdings notification stating they held 33m shares on 31st December (the date RKH said the shares would hit the market) and that represented 3.9% of the company. 33m shares is 3.9% of the diluted 847m.

It’s very difficult to predict where the share price will go this year.

Whilst there will be activity preparing for first oil, we are still a couple of years away and drilling won’t start until next year so although the NPV on a fully diluted (placing & warrants) basis is £1.52/share, logic says that the share price won’t get there for now because traders will look for the next quick buck and there is of course some execution risk remaining.

I think the current share price at 72p is too much of a discount on that £1.52 (53%) and my guess is it should settle something in the range of a 30-40% discount so roughly 90p-£1 once the dust has settled.

As first oil gets closer that NPV will rise, and the discount to NPV should decrease as well so if all goes well next year my guess would be £1.20-£1.50, rising up to circa £2 at first oil in 2028. If everything goes smoothly then Phases 2 & 3 plus exploration potential will also start to get priced in so who knows from there.

The market is unpredictable though and this development phase is often the stage at which institutions start to take more control as smaller shareholders chase gains elsewhere. We saw the share price move sharply upwards last November (a year before FID) on “no news”. I know people who sold out at 18-20p thinking they would buy back at 12p. Others did the same at different prices yet the share price kept going up. Some are still trying to get back in but the same could easily happen again from 70p and none of us can predict how and when it will happen. This isn’t a share controlled by bulletin boards anymore, there are bigger players behind the scenes.

We know there is always risk in terms of project execution and reservoir performance but there are also potential upsides with both of those as well. “Ahead of schedule and under budget” is what Messrs Ramsay et al are known for so let’s hope for the best but there is no shame locking in profits.

There are some curveballs that could change things like a partner joining, activity in the SFB or even a bid for the company so I won’t make any exact predictions but I’d expect 90-100p to end up being the range this year (give or take), 120-150p in 2027 and 200p+ in 2028. Final buy out price 600p+.

Good luck all whatever your strategy.

It’s the Open Offer that is not available to those who took part in the placing. Existing shareholders were of course allowed to take part in the placing.

New recruit to start the year:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/keith-palmer-92740388?

I suspect the market has already priced in the dilution, cash for development and higher market cap.

Hope everyone had a good Christmas.

Nothing we don’t know but I think Navitas have updated this:

Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd (NPDP), a UK based fully owned indirect subsidiary of international oil and gas organisation Navitas Petroleum, and Rockhopper Exploration plc have now reached Final Investment Decision (FID) on the Sea Lion Northern Development. This means that all the necessary approvals and funding for full-scale project execution have been secured.

Sea Lion’s activities will be run from NPDP offices in London, Aberdeen and Stanley and production is expected to last for over 30 years, creating jobs across the FI & UK supply chain over that period.

NPDP is taking a staged approach to Sea Lion. Having secured the required regulatory approvals and finance for Phase 1&2, it will commence drilling 11 subsea wells, tied back to a redeployed floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel. Phase 2 will commence approximately three years after first oil, with 12 further subsea wells to be drilled and tied back.

NPDP, which owns 65% of Sea Lion with partner Rockhopper Exploration plc (35%), plans to produce first oil in early 2028.

https://www.navitaspet.com/project/the-sea-lion-field/

Thank you for your Christmas cheer nikb.

Let’s all hope you’re right!