Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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CitizenTS, I like your logic.
Bloody 'ell - 'lifted' NOT 'listed'
LTT, how about we take the afternoon off? Meet you at the pub!
Not 'afford' - should be 'affect'.
LTT, is your condition contagious?
Good point - my understanding is that if Italy fails to pay the ICSID award, that will materially afford the RoI's ability to borrow. The usual outcome of that is they'll have to pay higher interest on loans, so it's really VERY important.
From the Italian PoV, to try and annul this annoying award to a tin-pot nothing of a company based in Salisbury, well known to Russian tourists for its spire.
From a RKH PoV, as long as we can keep holing on (and the II shareholders will help to ensure they do) we've more-or-less got the macaronis by the borrox, because the unanimous award decision virtually rules out an annulment and probably any award reduction too. So we just harvest the monthly interest and if the stay is listed, K&S can move-in on Italian assets.
All.
Just out of interest; what happens to the ICSID award if Italy defaults on it's sovereign debt?
Not beyond the realms of possibility for Italy (and others) when looking at the amount of debt and decreasing ability to service it!!
Mike
I think Rockhopper should argue the risk of Italy not being able to pay their existing debt , let alone the ICSID award, is increasing just look at the Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread.
So money should be paid to escrow now. Maybe if we go on and on about this the macaronis will pay up not to rock the bond market
Agreed LTT - clearly you had a good night's sleep, which is more than I had.
CitizenTS,
That makes a lot of sense. RKH have been waiting 6+years now for a payout and got a unanimous decision, how could they allow ROI to kick the can down the road again without some caveats. If one of the judges had gone against I could imagine the Stay being upheld but as all 3 agreed in our favor, it should be an open and shut case, they must realise what the ROI are trying to do.
So if they leave the Stay in place, the least they can do is say all the funds have to be deposited in escrow until Jan 2024, that means that when the decision is made, we get all or part ( incase they reduce the amount) straight away. If however ROI don’t set the funds for payment aside then the Stay in cancelled and RKH can go for the money. That would be the fairest outcome all round IMHO.
LTT
Thanks for that.
Regarding the other comments, while it would be great if the stay is lifted, it doesn't really matter too much, at least for the moment. Far more important is the progress being made by Navitas, who are clearly very focused and with the right people to do it. And I agree about Navitas getting on with the job, rather than making empty promises
rogue trader has another youtube video up where he has bought back in
We may see an OM announcement any time, could be tomorrow. Any speculation will soon be out of date so this post might have very little shelf life. Inevitably the outcome will reflect legal arguments but will still have to be chosen from the practical possibilities. So to organise some thoughts, and for now not pursuing further the no change/stay remains alternative, I'd suggest three possibilities -
In principle one option is for ICSID to lift the stay on the basis that anything rkh collects goes into escrow. This would be to follow RoI's submission that "because" rkh is a small company they should not be allowed to retain the funds, whether to invest in SL or whatever mumbo jumbo RoI offered.
Whilst lifting the stay would be a big win, this course would assist RoI's bullying approach of seeking advantage from their state level size versus rkh's smaller company position. RoI are nothing if not consistent having targeted bankrupting rkh for years. To withold access to funds because the appellant is small would be the polar opposite of ICSID's purpose, which is to level the playing field for corporates facing otherwise unaccountable, powerful and often corrupt governments. Funds would be spent on recovery without being able to access the proceeds. RoI would be playing the same game they have for years, as if they never lost the case.
Whilst lifting the stay would be a landmark moment, any funds collected would be accessed in 2024 all being well, and selling (a part of) the award would be both hugely assisted and better priced, I nevertheless still see this as the least favourable and most unlikely outcome. I may be wrong, but ICSID is simply not in the business of enabling states to throw their weight around.
Perhaps most obviously ICSID could lift the stay with no strings. This is quite a natural thing for ICSID to do and simply replicates the normal position where a defendant has lost a case, exhausted any appeal process (albeit there are no appeal routes in ICSID arbitration) and is seeking some sort of after-the-event judicial review. That pretty much describes where we are. A huge win for rkh if that's the way it goes.
The other option is to keep the stay on the basis that RoI put the whole award into escrow. To my mind, though the stay would remain, this would be even better than lifting the stay. No hassle, rkh assured of the whole award all being well in 2024 and no cost of collection! Is this the most likely outcome? Would it finally draw the teeth of RoI's ability to bully? And if so would it really be that good?
The risk must be that RoI might see it in much the same way and would not comply, but then whatever happens next would be their own doing. If RoI renège on the arbitration they have to expect the stay would be lifted!!!
The thing is LTT, we've all hastily read something and hastily posted, only to hastily regret that we didn't proof read. It's all good.
Regarding news, yes ICSID should report soon, I am surprised we have not heard anything already!
Regarding Navitas, well the SL update just shows they are very much on the case quietly in the background with no fanfare until they have to report.
Unlike Premier, who promised much and delivered little, Navitas say little then BANG,
Capex to first oil $1.3m and extraction costs down $27.6 per barrel.
I much prefer the Navitas way :-)
Hiya Ovets, SpaceHoppa, yep I freely admit I felt a right numpty after I posted it. Just shows how long ago I logged into my Linkedin account, it was labeled as an "Upcoming Event" LOL, hope I didn't get anyone too excited!
Something has to give soon anyway, should hear about the OM Stay this week or next with a bit of luck. Then over the Summer we should get some idea of how things are progressing with Navitas, if not least on the rig front. 65days + per well, 11 prior to first oil, plus rig mob time which if from the NS could be 2/3 months and we are looking at a possible 2.5years rig contract. That's something you don't book in with a month of twos notice!
Suppose it all depends on whether they want to get the funds in the bank before starting to source equipment or they start getting the ducks lined up as they go along. Hopefully the later.
LTT
There will be some day we will look back and laugh at all this, it’ll all make sense by then. Hopefully anyway.
In the meantime I’m going to do the only useful thing that can be done in this sort of situation, head off into the back garden, say a few kumbayas, and sacrifice a frozen chicken to the God of the 12p resistance…
Losing it a bit tonight…hehe…
Lol. Times like that one wishes, if only there was a delete button !
and you call yourself 'Long Term Thinker' !
Something gone wrong with the wiring and/or like the rest of us, desperate for someone to say something meaningful?
Blooming heck, please ignore my last post, it was last year! LOL, back to work, nothing to see here!
Sorry about that.
LTT
Just thought I would share this, not sure if it's been posted before but on Wed, May 18, 2022, 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM Navitas are having an investors conference, here is the event link below (if it works),
https://bit.ly/3N9ExR7
Should be interesting.
LTT
Ask 15p????????
mute moot
Interesting-investing
Totally agree Ovets.
Was just making comment on it being possibly a hindrance on multiple fronts re. Finance and farm-in partner options and value to date. This can easily be imagined when investment criteria of some, financial or oil related, may have not been interested or barred from investing due to policy of interesting in regions with the assurance of the energy charter. Same could also be said for investors in the stock and thus lacking the extra impetus on the sp it could have also supported.
I'm thinking along the lines of, why hasn't this share seen more interest from a wider range of investors over the years, very private investor and hedge fund orientated.. this may well be one of the reasons, and each step until the oil flowing removes more of the risk as we go (can probably include the argies in that risk pot as well).
100% the FI would never pull the plug because of a knee jerk reaction e.g. an oil spill in a similar environment and public support going the other way... but we all know politics, revolution and world events play their own tune and can rarely be predicted in the whole...
Anyway it's a completely mute point, as if they were signatories and pulled the plug, it would bankrupt the island if awarded against at arbitration... and thus highlighting my point of value not being reflected in the sp due to risk factors which are being and will be reduced to very little by the time the oil is flowing.
Onwards and upwards... BB3
I think we've gone off-piste, I don't think there's a snowflake in Hell's chance of FIG pulling out, so the ECT thing is a total distraction.
I'm sure the FIG is completely aware of the parlous state of their finances, despite some speaking publicly about the magnitude of their reserves.
If FIG pull the plug on SL, so it doesn't go ahead:
- Navitas will have wasted quite a bit of time and money, they'll probably get Shenandoah going before too long, but they'll never find another opportunity like this;
- RKH will have to rely on its OM award + interest and that'll be all;
- The FI will start its inevitable decline to oblivion and it's very likely that one day the Argies will move-in, rename it 'Las Malvinas' and then grab all the abundant oil & gas, which we know is there.
None of the participants can afford to let that happen.
The FI not being a signatory could be part/one of the reasons big oil hasn't piled in during early stages of exploration & development so far etc.
No doubt this dynamic would change if the risk of regulatory rug pulling was mitigated massively once producing.
Risk of all different sorts will have been removed once producing. This company and its acreage is going to be worth a fortune and be in big demand once the oil is flowing ?? ?? ?? ??
BB3.. looking forward to the day we get taken out at a huge premium.
BB3
Application to territories (Article 40 of the Energy Charter Treaty)
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northen Ireland applies the Energy Charter Treaty to The Isle of Man, The Bailiwick of Jersey and the Bailiwick of Guernsey