Member Info for Nastynick

The share price has dropped almost 25% over the past few months despite oil prices being much higher than in February pre war, and progress being made left, right and centre on Sealion. The fundamentals remain and I am struggling to see how the traders have managed to drive down the prices so much of oil stocks …….but it is what it is. Hoping the elastic band snaps back soon and hard.

GLA

I am staying at the bear hotel Woodstock near Blenheim Palace tonight and saw the Antiques of Woodstock shop. Reminder of that poster on old bulletin board days and those other greats. Hope all get to see the big pay out happen in 2028 and beyond.

We long term holders truly deserve it.

GLA

The train has well and truly left the station…..all aboard. I also like the timings and especially second FPSO in 2030, I assume therefore no dilution and finding out of phase 1 cash flow.

GLA

This share is asymmetrical, which is why it’s so good. Downside is probably 50p, at a disaster situation 40p. Upside in 1 year is potentially £1:30, 2 years £1:75, 3 years £2:50. I think these are realistic not wild but in a bull situation could be higher.

GLA

Oil Prices Set to Keep Rising Even After Iran Conflict Ends, Shell Boss Says

Wael Sawan says prices are going to move up, looking five to 10 years ahead

GLA

Brent oil cycle path (2026–2035)

• 2026 → ~$78

• 2027 → ~$85

• 2028 → ~$92 (tightening phase peak acceleration)

• 2029 → ~$88 (mid-cycle volatility)

• 2030 → ~$98 (renewed tightening)

• 2031 → ~$105 (supercycle peak zone)

• 2032 → ~$112 (peak scarcity)

• 2033 → ~$100 (normalisation starts)

• 2034 → ~$95

• 2035 → ~$90

Potential oil price profile given where we are on the cycle.

To predict this accurately is guessing game but if we are heading for a super cycle then this is the kind of profile we would get.

Wouldn’t that be perfect timing ?

GLA

Must be snapping back some time soon.

GLA

Here we are early June, almost 6 months after FID with FPSO contract and other main contracts all in place, FPSO sailing away for upgrade, project on time, oil prices circa 30% above December oil price and yet we are at least 20% lower in share price. Make it make sense.

GLA

I don’t see the connection, why side line your own oil output just because someone else is producing?

GLA

Central development Phase and the southern development phase. This is going to be accelerated at a rate much faster than previously thought. Not sure how all the funding works, farm in, placement etc but ultimately it’s a good thing so long as we don’t suffer horrendous dilution or give too much away but I don’t see why we should.

Very good find Mogger …as usual.

GLA

Which 3 figures do you have in mind Borgo?

500p or 100p?

GLA

Nope but it’s so disappointing

GLA

Sealion is an FPSO Aoka Mizu. That’s now on its way for upgrade in south east Asia. There is also an MOU for a second FPSO to accelerate and increase output significantly. Things will be taking off in the Falklands over the next 18-24 months dramatically.

GLA

Ridiculous

GLA

Rockhopper swings into loss…..talk about manipulating the narrative. Not Rockhopper transformational year lol , whoever came up with that negative title wants firing.

GLA

Share price doesn’t reflect progress. I guess it’s just the AIM curse. Unless we are literally churning millions of dollars immediately, nothing is really given a value. One thing we have realised as long term share holders is you need patience of a saint and balls of steel.

GLA

OM hearing expected late 2028, you have to be kidding me, WTF. Completely ridiculous

GLA

I can feel it in my bones.

GLA

Daikihaku,

Agree with all you write. The logic side of me says that Rockhopper will be absorbed / taken over, despite my hope to live off significant dividends for years to come. Either a mid E&P outfit or Navitas, yes they can buy us in chunks by taking a bigger % or the whole lot by financing (which they seem very adept at). I am hoping a mid size company farms in, we lose 5% but have derisked and much accelerated outcome. Making us more valuable in a take over situation at least.

GLA

Yeah £1:50 after holding all these years would suck when we are £2 doing nothing but holding until first oil. £2:50 would be my absolute minimum sell out but others may go cheaper and it’s all about who holds the majority.

GLA