Member Info for Nastynick

Let’s see what happens Monday before we dismiss. Today’s mark down is driven by the wider market sentiment.

The fact is days to do are getting few, so whether Borgo is right or wrong the probability of FID for each remaining day goes up. If you assume FID before Christmas then it’s about 6% chance any day, if before 12 Dec then it’s over 8% a day. so it’s literally 12 possible days when Israeli market and UK market are open at same time. 12 days of Christmas? 12 girls a dancing ?

GLA

Yup it’s quiet as a mouse and prone to the usual walk down MM manipulation right now. If it’s going to be Monday and Sam is in the Victory Bar sharing a few shandies with the locals then you would expect quite the rise in volume and share price.

Disappointing start but let’s see if Borgo has potted the right balls.

GLA

I called Sam I got redirected to “hold music”, it was playing “here comes the sun” on loop lol.

I am going to Falklands in January I hope to celebrate in the Victory Bar

Blue ball is 2, Purple is 4

24th would be great (November not December).

Happy/ Garbled you have been deramping this for many months. If you are invested why? If you aren’t, do you really think we are going to sell at this stage because of your glass half empty posts?

GLA

I got it wrong thinking TASE was closed during Hanukkah but that was wrong it stays open. so this does give an extra week for FID announcement which is after the FI election finishes. It is frustrating if we leave if literally down to the wire but this is rockhopper and they are here to test your stress levels and coronary arteries.

GLA

Hannukah is week before Christmas as well we have from now until 13 December

FI election is 11 December

I’m fed up with the waiting but even paint drys eventually.

GLA

Will be interesting to see to see what volume we have in first few hours. Not sure when Navitas announce Q3 results plus any other news ;).

Getting very excited.

GLA Impatience

Basin not baron dammit

This share has real possibilities to be £20+ as baron is developed and generating very healthy dividends. The fear is that we got bought out too cheap and too early. After FID we should be worth £2+ for a buy out easy.

Hopefully that doesn’t happen,

GLA

Rather than be a “denier” on the contrary I call the climate conspiracy theorists “activists”. funny how we are looking likely to have a cold winter, must mean global warming is over and ye ice age is coming again. I spoke to a n extremely well educated authority via email. I was surprised they responded and with such details. they said from 25-40 expect much cooling due to the suns activity. temps will drop on a mean global level by about 1 degree. He was unbiased and said overall temperatures will rise but not the next 15 years and after this it will be modest and not catastrophic for centuries.

GLA

Nm

Whole basin not baron…..curses the predictive text and my fat fingers

I know this idea often solicits a negative feedback on here, but I do believe they will appraise Isobel sooner rather than later (just needs 2-3 prods) as it opens up the whole baron and attracts a lot more interest. This will also expedite production.

Can’t wait for FID

GLA

Alisa looks cute…just saying

The value of Sealion phase 1 alone is circa £2:30 in share price, we are discounted significantly because of FID uncertainty, we are in AIM and execution to first oil. Don’t believe happy or garbled that FID is priced in. Theoretically we should rise anything from around £1:10 to £1:75 post FID, depending on sentiment. After this as we get to first oil we will approach true value of circa £2:30 assuming no major change to price of oil, an attempt to buy us, we appraise Isobel, farm in, etc.

GLA

Using 258million shares back in 2010 and approx £5 a share we were about £1.3billion market valuation. At that time we had much less shares and more equity of an unproven oil reserve. So yes there was quite a bit it if froth then given the journey that follows the initial discovery. Now we are on solid footing with well appraised oil field and much funding in place with many engineering and regulatory requirements behind us. This lazy and very incomplete article recommends a sell because we have had false dawns. With that we agree but this is at the very final stage it’s not a good comparison at any level.

I am looking forward to the hob nobs in Salisbury next year.

GLA

That’s an extremely lazy article and those who have held for a long time or done their due diligence know the upside is both imminent and potentially immense.

Who wrote this, Garbled?

14 Dec onwards is less than 5% due to Jewish Hanukkah and Christmas holidays.

Assuming we get FID this year then % probability is:

18-22 Nov 40-50%

25-29 Nov 25-35%

2-6 Dec 15-20%

9-13 Dec 10-15%

14 Dec onwards