Member Info for Nastynick

We have just returned the 80-82p range we were at for all of November exception being a short lived spike by a few pence then a downwards revision after JP Morgan forecasting oil surplus and oil price decline due to peace dividend of Ukraine / Russia war, which is a year plus in the unraveling, even if it fully happens and is going to be geo political tensions for many years after.

My guess is we will hover between 80-90p until FID announced then spike up 30%+ before settling around £1 to £1:20, before the rise starts towards £2:30 and first oil which is about the full value for Sealion Phase A.

GLA

We are currently 65% below the NPV of market cap for Sealion phase A. After FID discount should be 50% or less and towards first oil should realise full value. Share price should be £2:20 to £2:30 on first oil and the discounts apply from there.

Remember this is only phase A. not Phase B and all the rest Isobel etc.

In theory the future annual dividends once this basin is fully opened up will pay out the value of the shares today.

GLA

“The Partnership is working to obtain the final approval from the Falkland Islands government (FIG) for the project's detailed field development plan, which is expected shortly prior to the final investment decision (FID), following the approval in principle, which has already been given."

This is exactly what I thought and posted previously the finance has been approved and FIG approvals given in principle but they want a ceremonial rubber stamping by FIG. Once that’s done within hours or days they can announce FID. I think this is why we now need to wait until after the election. That said the dates of the rubber stamping and hence FID announcement are probably already set,

GLA

Iandman , I suggest you stalk someone else. You sound the town of Rolf who is also a weirdo.

GLA bring out the normal folk please

Lol

Land man - are you Rolf in disguise?

I’m not frightened of younger people or women I love them.

I don’t need therapy I can just see through all those lying politicians.

What’s the difference between facts and a conspiracy theory ….about 6 months

GLA come on Rock

I like at least 2 things about slide 6..

The exclamation mark after Sealion project - Nearing FID!

And “once FID is taken”…not if FiD is taken.

Excitement mounts

GLA here comes the sun and those beautiful dancing girls

The snow flakes are melting in this feminised world we live in. The pendulum always swings and the warrior mind set will return and hurry words will become just that.

GLA

I am on a cruise in January and visiting Stanley. Apart from seeing some penguins I am hoping for a pint in the Victory Bar and see if I can speak with some locals as I feel I’m an honorary citizen after all these years invested

GLA

Rolf please try the fruit and veg market. You may learn how to be less condescending and arrogant.

GLA Christmas is coming and the goose is getting fat

My take is (without any evidence) that the financials have been approved and in place (we part know of some of this anyway like Rockhoppers portion).

I think the regulatory stuff with FIG is also done.

Thererfire last stage could be the ceremonial approval by FIG after the election. FID can only be announced after government says yes and this is probably being controlled to a date for best publicity. This leads me to think a date has been set with FIG and it’s probably week if 15th December.

Then we have news flows up to and over the holiday period. The main contract awards for suppliers are all drafted and ready to send or partly started.

It all looks very positive to me.

GLA

I think FID will be week after election.

GLA

I’m with BB Hoppa, nanny state heading for communist control. All the signs are there for elitists running the down trodden with no incentive to do better. Communism always ends up like this.

Starmer and crowd just expedited the WEF agenda in UK. Conservatives are part of the uni party that executed it at a stealthier rate.

I would love Britain to be great again but we got betrayed and now we can’t even speak our minds in our own country….. f ing disgrace.

Come on rock ….mid December it is

Probabilistic Assessment

If we assign a rough probability based on these factors:

• Late Nov 2025: ~20%

• Mid Dec 2025 (15–19 Dec): ~60% → Most Likely Window

• Late Dec 2025 (22–31 Dec): ~5%

• Early Jan 2026: ~15% → Fallback Window

Takeaway:

• The most likely period for FID announcement is Monday 15 December – Friday 19 December 2025.

• Any earlier (late Nov) or later (early Jan) dates are less probable due to political sensitivity or holidays.

• For trading purposes, the best single days would be Tuesday 16 Dec or Wednesday 17 Dec 2025, as they avoid Monday congestion and allow investors to digest news mid-week.

Good old chatGPT

I am seeing a lot of. Unknown buyer/seller trades over last 3 months and especially last few days when there aren’t many the share price rises. I believe these could be broker to broker trades? Is this a way of suppressing the share price?

We got this late reported “unknown seller” trades which are substantial. This was same issue when we were stuck at 75p. Looks like some institutional transfer. not sure why but I think a lot is going on behind the scenes for positioning. Remember that 18M trade a few weeks ago out of the blue that didn’t even move the share price at the time. fundamentals for Rock are still great and its value will be shown, we just need the FID to be announced.

GLA

Quite high volume today again….interesting.

Drop for us is exaggerated because of the way the NPV is done. We are extremely sensitive to oil price $50 and at first oil we will be £1:20 -£1:70. At $55-65 we are £2-£3. At $70-80 we are £3:30 to £4:50.

All ways even low oil price we still should be well up on today’s price

When you are old you may not have too many tenths left.

Release the Kracken, let’s have that FID announcement

I’m a bit perplexed like the rest of us. if FID is delayed it would have been stated last week, was perfect opportunity. Also I can’t see them saying FID is not happening with 4 months to go before ESCROW deadline, given all the positive vibes, any wrinkles would be ironed out in 4 months.

Suspect manipulation at this stage.

GLA

I quite like it when they descend it usually is the signal that good days are close.

GLA Sharkeys will be reopening soon for a party