Member Info for Nastynick

Here we are early June, almost 6 months after FID with FPSO contract and other main contracts all in place, FPSO sailing away for upgrade, project on time, oil prices circa 30% above December oil price and yet we are at least 20% lower in share price. Make it make sense.

GLA

I don’t see the connection, why side line your own oil output just because someone else is producing?

GLA

Central development Phase and the southern development phase. This is going to be accelerated at a rate much faster than previously thought. Not sure how all the funding works, farm in, placement etc but ultimately it’s a good thing so long as we don’t suffer horrendous dilution or give too much away but I don’t see why we should.

Very good find Mogger …as usual.

GLA

Which 3 figures do you have in mind Borgo?

500p or 100p?

GLA

Nope but it’s so disappointing

GLA

Sealion is an FPSO Aoka Mizu. That’s now on its way for upgrade in south east Asia. There is also an MOU for a second FPSO to accelerate and increase output significantly. Things will be taking off in the Falklands over the next 18-24 months dramatically.

GLA

Ridiculous

GLA

Rockhopper swings into loss…..talk about manipulating the narrative. Not Rockhopper transformational year lol , whoever came up with that negative title wants firing.

GLA

Share price doesn’t reflect progress. I guess it’s just the AIM curse. Unless we are literally churning millions of dollars immediately, nothing is really given a value. One thing we have realised as long term share holders is you need patience of a saint and balls of steel.

GLA

OM hearing expected late 2028, you have to be kidding me, WTF. Completely ridiculous

GLA

I can feel it in my bones.

GLA

Daikihaku,

Agree with all you write. The logic side of me says that Rockhopper will be absorbed / taken over, despite my hope to live off significant dividends for years to come. Either a mid E&P outfit or Navitas, yes they can buy us in chunks by taking a bigger % or the whole lot by financing (which they seem very adept at). I am hoping a mid size company farms in, we lose 5% but have derisked and much accelerated outcome. Making us more valuable in a take over situation at least.

GLA

Yeah £1:50 after holding all these years would suck when we are £2 doing nothing but holding until first oil. £2:50 would be my absolute minimum sell out but others may go cheaper and it’s all about who holds the majority.

GLA

Let’s hope more success than the Titanic

GLA

I disagree the current price can have a negative impact on RKH if future oil revenues are expected to be lower. The upside won’t be accounted for much if oil prices rise as we are still heavily discounted based on execution risk. So the impact is asymmetrical, more down side than upside unfortunately. The real game changer is success and confidence in timely execution without significant cost overruns. That moves the needle.

GLA

Aedos holdings has largest share and off loaded sone earlier this year.

So if Aedos were the seller, Friday’s volume alone would represent around 41% of their entire stake. Of course, not all Friday volume would have been Aedos stock — every share traded has both a buyer and seller — but it shows that a single holder of that size could absolutely create the sort of pressure we’ve just seen.

The interesting threshold to watch is 6%. If Aedos dropped from 7.845% to below 7%, 6%, or 5%, we should eventually see TR-1 notifications.

GLA

Maybe we just have one of the institutions off loading. Presumably they bought at 53p so making almost 50% profit. We know the share price is suppressed because of that placement price. In hindsight the price was too low as some said but we were so hungry for FID I guess it was acceptable. Hopefully after these are off loaded and behind us we can realise true value.

GLA (whatever might be going on)

I would rather us use OM payouts for funding stuff. This must be ticking away steadily in gone background?

GLA

Wow that was nuts. 53p sellers? Is that the end of the over hang pre results? Wasn’t expecting that kind of volume.

In my wildest dreams I am hoping end of the sellers and we can make upwards progress from here.

GLA

I just can’t see regime change happening. That takes a great deal of momentum and typically requires a land based uprising or battles on land. If the US commits “boots on the ground” it will be another Afghanistan, Vietnam, unwillable war in my opinion.

GLA