Member Info for Nastynick

From last RNS “Navitas has also updated that due to the conflict in Iran, it has decided to change the location for the upgrades of the Aoka Mizu FPSO from the Middle East to Asia. “

Unless Belfast is now in Asia, it’s probably on its way to Singapore or Indonesia.

GLA

Investors value shorter term production targets rather than jam tomorrow news which may need investment. Unfortunately that’s how it is.

GLA

You’re right I didn’t think as logically as you. I asked our friend ChatGPT they reckon about 50% have been sold and that the over hang can clear in anything from 1-3 months. That would be a great piece of timing with Aoka Mizu upgrade and share holder meeting if around 1 month. Once we break out of this will rerate to £1+ at last.

GLA

We are treading water at 80p, my thinking is the 80p warrants anchoring us to this. Meanwhile the US-IRAN fiasco stretches out and we know Iran are masters at stretching out negotiations, this means the higher pricing will bleed into 2028 and beyond. The market is still assuming some rapid snap back to $65-70 in my opinion.

Hoping for r a rerate soon - June /July.

GLA

This is such a scam, £70K traded and share price marked down 5% lol. Market makers at their usual manipulation games.

GLA

The elastic band can only stretch so far. For me we are trading at quite the discount (and too much). I should come into a tidy sum in 2 -3 months due to a business sale. If I do I will definitely be adding at this price. My guess though is we will be 30% higher. So on one hand I want a rise on the other I don’t, maybe that’s a win-win.

Enjoy the BH everyone

GLA

1. BW Offshore – most relevant redeployment pool (primary MOU source)

BW is the key counterparty implied by the Sea Lion MOU logic, because they explicitly:

• Hold redeployable FPSOs

• Actively buy/position units for future charters

• Specialise in mid-life hull reuse

🔵 BW Offshore FPSOs relevant to Sea Lion

🟢 BW Hurra (VERY HIGH relevance)

BW Hurra

• ~100 kbopd capacity (fits Sea Lion Phase 2 / 3 scale)

• External turret FPSO (important for Falklands metocean)

• Purpose-built FPSO hull (not tanker conversion → lower risk)

• Currently in BW redeployment pipeline

• Acquired specifically for “next project” positioning

👉 Why it matters for MOU:

This is one of the cleanest “plug-in” FPSOs BW has for a new frontier basin.

✔ Strong candidate for second FPSO in Sea Lion hub scenario

GLA

I can’t see £2 this year but end of 2027, assuming good execution and no major cost overruns I expect £1:60 to £2. Can be £2+ if oil price is over $80 at this point.

Of course news of a takeover or deal would mean completely different outcome.

GLA, it’s a boring grind right now, but we know how this thing can move

Mogger

In your views how many FPSOs would we need if PL001 and Sealion plus satellites brought into play?

GLA

With the acquisition of JHI and the partnership with Navitas going well, the aspirations of the NFB being and oil and even gas province are being realised. This is not going to be just a one field wonder. Excited

GLA

By then we will all be multimillionaires Mogger!

My logic is at present the 80p warrants issue is anchoring us to 80p share price. I’m hoping for a bump up rerating at Aoka Mizu sail away. Would also be good to know the finances and costs are all looking good. Then it’s all about timing execution.

Roll on £2 and late 2027 ;).

GLA

It’s about transfer of production back to the USA and making China a consumer economy - reversing the trend. That’s the big game I believe Trump is playing. Otherwise US empire is in inevitable decline. 3D chess being played out using resources such as oil.

Bottom line is that Trump doesn’t necessarily want a peace in my opinion. Oil will have a new base line price and it’s not $60 lol

GLA

Lol clown show garbled

Reason I believe is with the 80p warrant overhang. Should clear end of month / early June. At same time as FPSO sail away.

GLA

This is what I have been saying for a while. Pattern is to break to circa £1:10 (cup and handle). The trigger for this could be FPSO sail away. Let’s see but that’s my take.

GLA

Most likely takeover timing if it was to happen would be between FPSO sail away or in ship yard for upgrade and first oil. Can happen any time, but this is much the preferred phase.

80p warrants are probably getting consumed by early June, sail away likely same timing. I’m hoping we rerate as the project derisked further. Then between that event and first oil, we run the possibility of take over.

Personally I want £2, before I think if taking anything out but ideally we ride this through, produce and hopefully become a dividend machine in future years.

GLA

Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF37sufmyNg&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D

What Trump is really doing ?

GLA

I should have said Aoka Mizu sail away for upgrade.

GLA

I think the 80p warrants overhang will hold us around 80-87p until they are fully exercised/ consumed. My estimate is late May or early June. Will coincide with Aoka Mizu and potential rerate. The chart has been pointing to a cup and handle and if breakout circa £1:10. This is AIM and rumour/ news dependant.

GLA

Iran is considering USAs 14 point proposal so oil prices plunge 10%+ lol. This is going to take many months to a few years to resolve supply issues. The market is so sentiment based and reactive. I guess someone is making a good living day trading.

GLA

The next phase for Aoka Mizu.

The Bluewater FPSO Aoka Mizu is preparing to undergo a Repair Life Extension and Topsides Upgrade ahead of deployment to a new field in South Atlantic.

This development will enable the turret-moored FPSO to produce oil and reinject produced water and associated gas at its new location, in approximately 450 metres water depth, with an initial production capacity of up to 50,000 barrels of oil per day.

This project reflects a continued collaboration between teams and partners, combining operational experience with forward planning as Aoka Mizu transitions into its next phase.

Engineering and procurement activities are currently in progress, with yard arrival expected by the end of the third quarter this year. Following upgrade works and onshore commissioning, the unit is expected to depart in the fourth quarter of 2027 and begin production in the first quarter of 2028.

Every transition requires careful preparation. We look forward to the next stage of Aoka Mizu’s journey with focus and intent!

GLA