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Started: Barney182, 4 Apr 2024 11:27
Last post: Clank, 18 May 2024 08:15
10% is a lot of a portfolio to hold in BATS
Whilst the yield remains a key lure, recently it hasn't been enough to compensate for capital losses.
Current short term valuations are also quite weak so keeping the share just for the dividend doesn't make financial sense to me as an investor.
Sliced mine again this morning now BATS down to 10% of my protfolio, will grab back again if it drops back, if not will just hold remaining small stake for divi.
I decided to take a few off the table for a small profit. Still quite a bit overweight here, but more comfortable adding those back, should we get a retrace to the 23's on no company-specific news.
Still my largest holding and fairly relaxed at the time of print, which probably means you should all run for the hills :) GLA.
Roughly 9% at the time of print. A bit of an overweight position and not really intended, but I just felt it was so undervalued in the high 22's that I 'flexed' my risk parameters somewhat and bought a few more tranches.
I will trim some though in the 25's now and more in the 26's. 28 quid and I will look to underweight my position here. If we get there of course. Who knows etc? GLA.
LWHL - can you. say what % of your portfolio. is in BATS? Just for interest. as I have. 4%
Started: stargate, 8 May 2024 04:20
Last post: stargate, 8 May 2024 04:20
Bullish sp, break today, above price high of 2/5/24, on highest volume for seven days.
Tobacco sector 3 month time pivot for the quarter ended 31/3/24, was broken above today. Details of the sector time pivot and associated R1 resistance and S1 support levels are recorded on the tobacco sector chat section. The sector chart is above resistance at 27000, so appears likely to attempt a rise to 28000. Otherwise look for consolidation of the sector above 27000. Stop loss can be price high of 2/5/24, less 3 x ATR(average true range), shown under indicator page of charts. DYOR.
Started: Mr_Rooster, 26 Apr 2024 20:13
Last post: greygeorge, 1 May 2024 15:37
I think Sunak did this smoking ban not from political conviction but from his deeply held religious conviction. Like his unstinting support of Israel, everything he does stems from his Hindu fundamentalism and in Israel's case, hatred of Islam and support of those who carry out genocide against followers of that religion gets his support. Just look what's happening to the Muslim minority in majority Hindu India.
Should be good for the SP if it comes to pass.
Politicians need to leave adults alone to make their own choices. But it is the hypocrisy that really annoys me most though. The green agenda scam while they take private jets to climate conferences, feasting on the finest food and drink flown in from around the world etc.
Like our ones trying to introduce that smoking age law that just looks incompatible with...well the fundamental premise of the legal system itself I guess. Pragmatically, just a rubbish and unworkable policy anyway.
These tools all fiddle while our various Romes burn. Ah well.
Biden Administration Drops Plan to Ban Menthol Cigarettes:
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/menthol-cigarette-ban-explained-0c41df7a?mod=djemalertNEWS
Started: Modestus, 26 Apr 2024 19:43
Last post: Modestus, 26 Apr 2024 19:43
"We have historically had success investing in companies transitioning from a focus on reducing leverage to enhancing shareholder returns, as they often experience a valuation boost post-inflection."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684261-british-american-tobacco-stock-has-the-potential-to-substantially-rerate
Started: Drunkinestor, 24 Apr 2024 12:34
Last post: greygeorge, 24 Apr 2024 21:43
Drunkinestor - Were you expecting something in the way of a 'course redirection' ?
The script has been released in RNS updates.
Can’t spot anything that stands out particularly as course redirection.
Started: Barney182, 22 Apr 2024 13:43
Last post: RG27, 23 Apr 2024 11:07
No Opinion
RE: Mini Spike22 Apr 2024 22:42
Jefferies raises British American Tobacco price target to 3,300 (3,200) pence - 'buy'
And one year ago Jeffries gave a buy signal with a 4,100p target, since when the price made steady and consistent price drops. Not an ideal track record :(
Yes, the weakening pound.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Jefferies raises British American Tobacco price target to 3,300 (3,200) pence - 'buy'
Cheers Drunk
Market sentiment on hopes that recent events in the ME won’t turn into WW3 (rightly or wrongly). i.e the Israel response was not quite as gung-ho as feared it may be.
Started: longtimeinvestor, 16 Apr 2024 12:22
Last post: Selpec, 20 Apr 2024 19:04
Eventually politicians created a way to grey market and corruption.
'...stupid and unworkable . can you imagine in the future, a 69 year old man asking his 70 year old mate, to purchase some ***s for him - it is laughable....'
I hadn't given this aspect much thought until I saw this, but an adult smoker will, for the rest of their life, have to produce some sort of ID as proof of age, until the day they die, when they purchase any tobacco product.
What. do you expect from politicians? They just. seek headlines - give little thought to the practicalities or the. consequences. . The. good brains are in commerce. or industry.
It's just 0.9% from UK and when you consider that to Vaping in UK which is on increase, smoking is going to be in rear view after 15 years so who cares for this election photo finish announcement. Better get this gem now and enjoy 10% dividend.
ora
''the likely ban of people born from 2009''
stupid and unworkable . can you imagine in the future, a 69 year old man asking his 70 year old mate, to purchase some ***s for him - it is laughable.
Started: Barney182, 15 Apr 2024 10:25
Last post: Barney182, 15 Apr 2024 12:19
Cheers pal. Yes so true! fingers crossed inflation does start to drop!
My bet is yes, but much can happen from now until then in the world. Would help of course if inflation started to drop.
Think the July Interims should give it a good boost Graham? Even if its just short term!
May stay in the doldrems for a while until July interims, but i did buy another 200 a little while ago at 22.775 thats around 10.3% yield. Amazing this still drifts even with the share buyback. Oh well gl to all LTH.
Is there anything upcoming to help this SP as its falling day by day
Started: CentralBanksSuck, 11 Apr 2024 08:21
Last post: CentralBanksSuck, 11 Apr 2024 08:21
Directors look to be accumulating shares. You have to go back to Mar 22 to find the last director sell.
For me this share is a hold and cream in the dividend.
Started: Valuation-it-is, 3 Apr 2024 09:05
Last post: fogthemogg, 3 Apr 2024 15:12
BATS you're going to send me to sleep, we still haven't recovered the ex-divi drop.
I love building generational wealth with penny dividends, which are then more than offset by xx% capital losses. It's the classic FTSE play.
A good sign that the company is buying its own shares at prices up to £24.32. Why sell below that figure?
Started: stargate, 30 Mar 2024 23:24
Last post: stargate, 1 Apr 2024 15:43
Following on from my post of calendar month March pivot levels for use in April. I now show the quarterly(3 month), pivot levels from the period 1/1/24-end March 2024.
R(2) resistance 2589.66. )
R(1) resistance 2497.82. )
Pivot. 2392.16. ) Quarterly
S(1) support. 2300.32 )
The calendar month March pivot, (high+low+close)/3, is 2370.16. If the sp, remains above the pivot, in April, the bias is bullish. Support level 1(S1), is 2304.32 (pivot x 2)-high. Resistance level 1(R1), is 2471.82(pivot x 2)-low.
Resistance level 2(R2), is 2537.66 (pivot+(high-low). DYOR.
Trendline from December low, re-established, after break of the trendline in early march 2024. Heaviest volume for three years, in the recent week of 17/3/24. Sp, requires to show support above 2400. Similarly the tobacco sector, which has broken above 27000, requires to find support above 27000. I project that the tobacco sector will reach 27300, on or before 22/4/24. DYOR.
Started: Clued, 25 Mar 2024 10:06
Last post: Clued, 25 Mar 2024 10:06
Obvious mistake on Google which another article - Stock news - has used, m should be b for billions:
The global tobacco market is anticipated to surpass a valuation of US$ 627 million in 2024 with a CAGR of 3.40% during the forecast period. The global market is expected to reach US$ 878 million by 2034."
These errors can adversely effect share trading algos, obviously.
Can Google easily be informed of its error or does one have to jump through hoops ?
Started: greygeorge, 20 Mar 2024 17:53
Last post: greygeorge, 21 Mar 2024 16:44
'...Slightly better situation here than in America. There you can't even be considered for presidency if you don't believe in god and give a "so help me God" at the end of swearing in oath...'
True. Although, they see trump as the second coming. Mostly though they just have to offer thoughts and prayers every time there's a slaughter, and pretend they give a damn about anyone but themselves.
Slightly better situation here than in America. There you can't even be considered for presidency if you don't believe in god and give a "so help me God" at the end of swearing in oath.
Yes, but his religious dogma will be with us forever. Nit much of a democracy when 2/3 of the political leaders in mainland UK is an unelected religious zealot.
Not to worry, he'll be out of office by November this year at the very latest. Likely a lot sooner.
This is a problem you get when your unelected PM is a religious man. In Hinduism, smoking tobacco is considered immoral and sinful. The ancient texts emphasize the importance of purity, including purity of food and habits. Here are some key points regarding Hinduism’s perspective on smoking. So it's not about democracy, it's about religion.
Started: Deanosbooty, 21 Mar 2024 12:22
Last post: Deanosbooty, 21 Mar 2024 12:22
Hey guys (n'dolls)
Am I right in thinking this has gone ex-div today, meaning anything over about 23.37 represents a blue day?
That's assuming I'm also right, that the dividend is also around 57p.
Thanks Deano
Started: boyasaka, 20 Mar 2024 14:16
Last post: sharesaplenty, 20 Mar 2024 16:33
Same is true for many other products. Oil, gas, munitions, fast foods.
Pressure to lower and/or ban consumption but its not going to happen.
For tobacco, the tax take is way too high for governments to ever consider an outright ban
Not invested here but been looking at it
How can this be a good investment when your world is trying to ban tobacco?
Started: HH88, 20 Mar 2024 12:16
Last post: HH88, 20 Mar 2024 13:02
TY Hope.
At least LTH’s will gain with the BB & today’s drop.
It’s frightening how influential the media/internet is these days, although it’s probably the speed. Nowadays the algos & herd mentality kick in and cause the damage before the brain acts.
The report mainly says they did not find a link considering there has been a lot of research both here and in the US. Once it settles SP will rebound.
On talking via email they are considering it as misleading. This is much like the class action in the US. Sky News like the BBC news will probably do a we were misquoted and say sorry in small lettering. I think those days are over time to pay up for bad reporting.
Title on Sky News
Vaping causes similar DNA damage to smoking - as study links e-cigarettes to cancer risk.
Report from Doctor in Article-
Dr Ian Walker, Cancer Research UK's executive director of policy, said: "This study contributes to our understanding of e-cigarettes, but it does not show that e-cigarettes cause cancer.
"Decades of research has proven the link between smoking and cancer, and studies have so far shown that e-cigarettes are far less harmful than smoking and can help people quit," he said.
It further says it requires further study.
News Outlets can be sued only way for them to report correctly it seems
So with the main market flat, a BB just started and going XD tomorrow at close to 10% pa we’re down nearly 2%.
Strange times indeed.
Started: stargate, 18 Mar 2024 16:39
Last post: Finley1, 20 Mar 2024 07:46
The really smart people in life use a combination of factors to invest. The T/A argument is
all ok and relies on in theory mean averages, ie the share count being the same. When Bats
are buying back shares the averages are therefore changing, so the so called pivot points
Fibulation bands, and spinning tops are no longer a guaranteed reference because the input data has changed.
Also chuck into the equation the growth factor from Non Combustables which is not quantified historically , and the whole TA argument becomes an unknown.
My view, so I’m taking my spinning tops and drawing a fibocci line underneath all the hype.
Something to think about
Jon39 with charts and forecasts most Algorithms can predict the way a share can move but sometimes they can get it wrong badly. They see numbers and patterns but now again something pops out which is the A. I can not cope. This in the past has led to huge losses in Investment. They are a useful tool and can be used as such but do not rely 100% on them.
Your premise, regarding common sense and investment, is most commendable, unfortunately history sometimes tells a different story, for instance, in the 19th century, railway stocks, were considered, so dependable, that widows, and other vulnerable investors, invested most of their savings, until there was a unfortunate decline, in railway stocks.
BATS, has already written down the value if it's USA assets recently. There is no dispute that the tobacco sector, is unlikely to collapse overnight, but then the 19th century, railway stock decline, would have been gradual.
The ATR, value was 41.7, on the 3 day pivot low, and the maximum spread today was 1, making a total value of 42.7, to deduct from the 3 day pivot low of 2340.5. Since , the 20 day moving average, nearby, can be expected to provide price support, a suitable stop level, might be, 2340.5-(41.7+1)= 2298.8. DYOR.
The 3 day pivot, low of 2340.5, on 15/3/24, is a sensible place for a stop loss, which should include the spread of 0.5 + a multiple of the ATR(average true range), deducted from 2340.5 , which is found in the lse site under charts, then indicators.
Useful tip, never place a stop on an even number. So stop, summarised as 2310.5-(spread 0.5+ATRx2).
Price target is the 8/2/24, high price of 2499. The tobacco sector today broke through its 1/2/24, time pivot close, which is bullish, since the sector is already above the 1/3/24 time pivot high value. Tobacco sector shows relative strength, through being one of the few sectors rising today. FTSE100, fall today, has brought the SUK2(reverse derivative), into overhead resistance , Expect the FTSE100, to rally soon, while the SUK2 reflects that rally, by a fall.
The 3 day pivot, implies further BATS, upside, with the probability that BATS, will likely require to retrace to show support above 2400. The price
Started: Hope1815, 20 Mar 2024 07:45
Last post: Hope1815, 20 Mar 2024 07:45
ITC Hotel demerger 2024 - 6 months or fewer to go
In an effort to unlock value and focus on core competencies, ITC Ltd. decided to demerge its hotel business into a separate entity. The board of ITC Ltd. granted in-principle approval for the demerger under a scheme of arrangement.[12] Sanjiv Puri, the CMD of ITC, elaborated that the move is part of a broader strategy for capital raising and debt expansion.[13]
The spin off was confirmed last August 2023 and a 15 month period given. British American Tobacco will hold 17% of the business to which they intend to sell.
Depending on the IPO price and how it performs BAT could rise 1 to 3 Billion from the procedes.
According to the filing, the indicative timeline for listing ITC Hotels is nearly 15 months i.e. probably in November 2024. It is worth mentioning that the scheme of the demerger is subject to necessary approval from shareholders, creditors, stock exchanges, Sebi, NCLT and others
Happy Investing
Started: Jfallonirl, 14 Mar 2024 19:46
Last post: demar, 18 Mar 2024 15:10
It will be very interesting to see whether the share price is more than £24 over the next few weeks and months. I hope that it will increase substantially towards £30. GLA
Great stuff, hopefully should bring the SP up somewhat. Bonkers the free cash flow BATS have with a progressive and well covered dividend at 10% yield. As good as you're gonna get for income investing.
Buybacks starting today, so that an average of 100,000 shares a day for the rest of 2024.
These things always take longer than they should so probably need to wait at least a couple of months!
Any idea when buybacks will commence?
Is it just a case of legals and money dropping first so about 30 days?
Stamp duty is a tax on share transactions in UK incorporated companies. The rate of stamp duty on shares stood at 1% before 1974, when it was increased to 2%. It was reduced to 1% in the 1984 Budget and further reduced in 1986 to 0.5%, where it has stood ever since.
Short Selling in Britain has been round for 300 years I signed the Peitition but it will make no difference.
People should really do some research instead of writing some lines on the subject they know little about.
I agree with this stargate.
Liquidity is one of the main reasons the US market is so successful. Stamp duty should be removed in the UK and the government should promote more pro-business rhetoric rather than using companies for cheap shots and extra tax.
Perhaps then we would end up with more Arm's, less Vodafones and BP would be flying.
The UK stockmarket, already has a problem, with equities, delisting and moving their listing, to the USA, largely as the result of short term government thinking, regarding how investment institutions invest. Short selling improves efficient price discovery, improves liquidity and positively impacts corporate governance. The committee on capital markets regulation report, states that short selling confers several benefits to both directly the capital markets themselves and indirectly to the real economy (capmktsreg.org). If short selling is banned, without a similar ban, in the USA, where most uk equities delisting, are moving, I am sure the usa stockmarkets, will welcome even more former uk business.
Signed
Started: HappyInvestor100, 13 Mar 2024 07:04
Last post: stargate, 13 Mar 2024 14:56
The chart, appears to show probable sp, support between 2350-2370.
Overhead supply from previous trading at 2400, could cause resistance to further immediate upside, in sp.
I calculate that the ITC stake if realised through sale, added to lowest BATS, would equate to a sp, of approx. 2600.
2740, if added from current BATS, sp. Apparently BATS, are focused on buying in equity, no doubt, to relieve the financial burden of the current high dividend.
The dividends have been set at a fixed amount per share (235p), so the current yield is just under 10% yield per share. Buying back shares with such a high dividend burden makes more sense than redeeming bonds unless any are over 10% yield (not sure but unlikely given the low interest rates for the last 15 years). The current low valuation also makes it seem a good idea.
Would have been better for long term holders if they used the proceeds to off debt rather than a share buy back grrrr
Started: stargate, 12 Mar 2024 15:46
Last post: stargate, 12 Mar 2024 15:46
Commodity channel index, formed a bullish positive divergence pivot on 4/3/24, while the sp, fell. Yesterday sp, was a japanese spinning top, and also an outside day, confirmed by the high and low encompassing the high and low of the preceding day . The sp, today has confirmed bullish breakout by moving above the combined outside day and spinning top high.
The tobacco sector value today, has moved above the month time pivot, of 1/3/24, which i have recorded on that date. Very often the first trading day, high and low, of the sector, can provide the pivot for future direction of the sector, in the month. DYOR.
To test the 200 DMA by late March/April time. Hardly an exciting or radical call...although it seemed miles off within a few days of my saying it :)
My target here, as things stand, is a good deal higher, but no idea when that number will hit (assuming it ever does, of course). With a dividend like this, patience is more easily observed though.
What was your prediction LW?
Still on track for my prediction to come off...although not via the route I expected it to take, at the time I made that comment!
Feeling a little less foolish now. It will not last, but I will savour it while I can :) GLA.
Added a few more myself today. Would be surprised if we did not have a go at the 200 DMA within the next few weeks or so. Over 9% dividend while we wait! GLA.
The last few days or weeks have seen Institutions increasing their Holdings. British American Tobacco is increasing the Dividend through the 2024/25 Financial Year, a bond raise, and Selling a part of ITC or the whole depending on how the Regulators in India resolve the outlook. The growth for the year is between 3 to 5% for the 2024/25 year as guidance.
The article from Market Beat 21/2/24 shows who has bought.
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-bti-sec-filing-2024-02-21/
Happy Investing
Last post: sharesaplenty, 12 Mar 2024 12:41
To be fair, they've paused buybacks in recent years whilst interest rates have been high to pay off debt. If interest rates fall (which is forecasted) and debt pile and its interest is manageable why not recommence buybacks?
Nice one Tom! Nice rise so far to go with it!
RNS out deal is done!
As predicted money to be used for buybacks amongst other uses.
Are we expecting an RNS once the deal goes through and what are people`s SP guesses once that happens?
I hope they use the money to repay debt, but fear they will use it to buy back shares
Started: ForeverNever, 11 Mar 2024 17:49
Last post: ForeverNever, 11 Mar 2024 17:49