Member Info for ForeverNever

I've seen a number of statements from people along the way up all claiming to have sold as they have that magic 'feeling'. Just look at us now!!

This has 10 more days to go. Plenty to play out.

No one really knows. But I will take the assumption Castlelake not closing the door on their fourth offer and the board opening the books confirms they have nothing to hide and can back their statement up that the companies worth more.

For me that spells plenty more upside

Expecting a nice jump today.

Sh! T just got real.

Love how everyone seems to be an expert and know what Castlelake are going to do.

A few more days yet for this to play out

With three bids in relative short succession tells me they want the company.

I expect another bid.

Wow. That'll make things interesting

I'd need to look at the numbers again but much higher than that

If these guys buy Ezj out and then relist in the US it's pretty clear they will instantly gain billions of dollars.

Ezj is an exception company still growing, own assets and cash in the bank. Yet it's trading as if its loss making.

Can't believe this is still under 400p.

Not selling a bean until at least 590p. This was like buying Airlines during the covid years. Absolute bargain

Not sure but I'm quite happy if the board retains its current structure but looks at ways to narrow the discount to NAV, this could be through more asset recycling, perhaps a buy-back programme and renewed focus on dividend sustainability.

The results were fine here. But nothing that's going to really excel the SP over the next year or so. Business is great, low p/e, capital light, practically no debt. It's announced a few redundancies and taken advantage of some AI introductions. BUT I cant see where the catalyst is for growth. Don't get me wrong this share sits well in my portfolio, I know what I'm going to get and pays a great divi. The buybacks are making improvements on the EPS but that's relatively small in the grand scheme of things

The main catalyst I see here is a take over from our friends who already own 10% stake. So it's a hold from me.

Ah got 1000 gbp at 146 ish.... All I could get

Just tried a top up, couldn't get any even when I went down to 1000gbp worth

Was just looking myself. No RNS but lots of single digit trades so being played. Someone trying to (we all know who) mop up before putting in an offer?

If the SP falls after that update I'll buy more. But I will be surprised, market was pricing in for more bad news imo.

Good to me. Bad news is now done, back to growth this year and the acquisition is funded from plenty of cash they have yet opens potentially large number of additional sales to market. If they can get 15mil of sales which was stated they will get their money back in 6-12 months

Was thinking the same. I've added a few more as I believe an offer will be made in the future. Why else would they take 10% in the company.

They are in the same business and Moltiply have grown through acquisition

Home Bargains results I see as a postive. Generally if a retailer is doing well the whole sector is performing. It's like saying 'oh Taylor Wimpey sold lots of properties therefore the other house builders won't do so well'

It's already trading on single figure p/e ratios so in my view the downside risk is minimal.

There's no denying it's a tough game with waiver thin margins. This is about volume and fine tuning the business. May take some time.

There are many articles talking about Shell being in advance talks with Llog well before Harbour swooped in. Shell were expected to conclude by end of Dec.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-eyes-llog-deal-strengthen-144800034.html

Many more similar stories from a quick Google

I've been trying to look at this as well due to the debt levels concerning me, their debt to equity ratio will be around one and in what many are calling a deflating oil price market in 2026 wonder whether taking on more debt and responsibility when many are cutting costs and bracing for some volatility...is it the right time to buy?

Part of me thinks there could be many more opportunities next year if the oil price falls as many are expecting. However they swooped this from under Shells feet, if they were interested in it then its usually for good reason.

Harbour is financing the cash portion of the acquisition with a $1 bn bridge + $1 bn term loan and liquidity. Assuming 7–8% pricing on these facilities , interest cost in 2026 could be around 120-140m, USD . I'd probably stick with 140m USD NOTE; this is interest repayment only...

LLOG’s assets produce ~34 kboe/d with production expected to grow and at 12usd boe

Pre-Tax FCF should be around 450-550m (25% tax rate they mentioned so 337.5m - 412.5m USD) less the debt repayments.

200m USD FCF per annum sound about right? This takes into no consideration of any uplift on production they mentioned.

just to note also that non of this is taking into consideration the 11% increase in shares

They have the debt repayments covered, even at the present depressed levels and plenty of room should prices fall further. So its looks like its a good acquisition

Get the debt repaid quickly, increase production and once boe increases this will be in a great position to capitalise. Im just unsure how 2026 will pan out and thus do believe the SP will stay deflated for a while.... Just my opinion BTW

I checked the holdings register after I had posted and realised. Apologies for the over excitement, just not seen a holding RNS without it stipulating previous holdings so quickly (wrongly) assumed new holder.

Ps are we at the bottom yet?