Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Robbren

The only thing on MOL's mind is Wizz. Wizz is the serious threat for his company in Italy and Eastern Europe. He suddenly thinks that he'll have the Aircraft to compete with Wizz. So with reignited enthusiasm, he's doing what he does best, going on the attack. Exactly like Trump.

Don't forget. It's all about growth for these CEO's (I mean chief exec's). The growth is in Eastern Europe. He was worried that he would lose out to Wizz because of Boeing. He still will.

Kpa

You're 14 aren't you? You're winding up the adults on this forum. Good for you. It's fun.

Robbren

I have no idea how to time the market. I think at some point a quarterly report will come along which will show an increase in operational profit from the same quarter in the previous year. That maybe the driver for a 50% increase in the share price.

Garonne

The comments by MOL and the increased level of shorts coincide with the Boeing announcement. MOL would certainly have known of Boeings situation prior to the press release, bigger shorts probably have similar information. Boeing have certainly reignited the spring in the step of MOL. He was starting to look somewhat withdrawn when he thought that he wouldn't be getting any new Aeroplanes.

Yeslam's recent comments (and I totally agree):

"My personal opinion is that WIZZ willing to sacrifice F26 results and maybe F27 as well in order to rid of unprofitable part of their network and as many CEOs as possible. Which is ok for me as together with the resolution of the GTF issue , it will better position them vs RYR in 2 years time."

I think this is totally true. Wizz are using the time that they have significant "Sale & Leaseback" cash to remove all dead wood from the company and to turn it in to the highly slick operation which it needs to be.

Ex-Leasing costs. Wizz Air's fleet will be 40% more efficient than Ryanairs old B737-800's. F28 or F29.

Michael O' Leary's Sale & Leaseback comments:

"sale-and-leaseback deals. Over the past five years, Wizz has booked profits from these transactions in their accounts, like some sort of Ponzi scheme."

Well if it's a Ponzi scheme, it's a Ponzi scheme with a lot more legs because Wizz still have around 250 A321-NEO's to be delivered. That will book a couple of Billion Euro's in guaranteed profits in the next few years.

There is no short term prospect of Wizz Air becoming insolvent.

I think that MOL is playing on the view that in the long term with Sale & Leaseback profits behind Wizz and with high leasing costs, a significant economic downturn could be a disaster for Wizz. I think that one of the analysts said that Wizz Air may not be able to weather a severe recession as well.

In my view, this is the speculative risk we're taking. Passenger demand is growing rapidly, particularly in Eastern Europe. Both Ryanair and Wizz are not far off saturation in terms of load factors. As saturation occurs, yields will push higher. Then even a downturn will be comfortably weathered.

I understand the point though. THERE IS NO BACKSTOP TO WIZZ AIR'S POSITION. They can't sell Aircraft for cash in case another Covid or equivalent comes along.

I see that they hope to achieve 53 Aircraft per month by the end of 2026. Well it depends on the supply chain. I wouldn't expect it to happen. 7 years on, we're still waiting for the B777-9.

Two points on the increased 737Max production.

1. Ryanair ordered the Max10 which is not certified yet. I understand that certification should occur towards the end of 2026. But Boeing have a history of delays.

2. The FAA have authorised a production increase. That doesn't mean that Boeing are capable of increasing production. It's more than likely that it'll take 5 years to increase the production to the FAA approved level.

I'm in Paris Charles de Gaule right now. The Queues for passengers are shocking. I'd rather be at Paris Beauvais if I was a passenger.

Yes but MOL says that his Aircraft are filled with people that swore they would never fly with Ryanair again.

Stille

Wizz definitely make more aggressive/adventurous decisions than other low cost Airlines. As such it is more speculative. But I believe in Varadi and in his decision making- given the information he has at any given time.

John

It's not that Ryanair look weak. They look mature. MOL already said previously that they'll probably not grow in 2027. Post 2030, they'll be retiring 30+ Aircraft per year. It's unlikely Boeing will deliver sufficient Aircraft to keep RYR growing with that level of retirements.

With an aging fleet cost will rise (RYR).

I agree that there's a little more optimism with Boeing now, until the next issue. That optimism has given MOL confidence to slander his opposition.

Wizz is Ryanair's only real threat.

Easyjet is two thirds a UK Airline. It's suffering from a very Senior work force in a Unionised company backed up by very Socialist government's. On top of that, the UK government has started to see the Airline industry as one of it's cash cow's, so tax has been increasing exponentially. Easyjet operate exclusively from high cost Airports.

In the end Easyjet is not a low cost carrier.

Wizz is only temporarily, relatively high cost.

Easyjet is permanently high cost.

Unions like BALPA (British Pilots) are considered to be very soft Unions but they do have the effect of slowly strangling the company because they don't give freedom to the management to do what needs to be done to make the company really successful.

MOL talks of his rivals like Trump talks of his political opponents. The more he says about them, the more it indicates that he believes they're a threat. It's laughable that he talks about other Airlines not growing when he has to retire so many Aircraft and it's in the balance how fast Boeing will be able to deliver his new Aircraft.

Wizz is currently profitable and will remain so and it has a large amount of cash.

You have to listen to what MOL says but sort out for yourself what is the truth and what he's saying that is agenda driven.

In a direct comparison with EZJ, yes, £40+.

Fitch expects Wizz Air's F28 EBITDAR to exceed €2B. That is 27% more than Easyjets current EBITDAR.

D9Ber1

If you have a chance, read that statement from Fitch because it gives a very good overview of the company going forward.

Sorry. It was 9th July. Not 25th July.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-wizz-air-to-bb-outlook-stable-09-07-2025

D9Ber1

I'm not expert enough to explain anything about how debt ratings work. I just understand that it's a very important part of the Due Diligence which institutional investors do before making an investment. Investing in companies with a debt rating of Junk is very restricted, from what I understand.

Fitch most recently downgraded Wizz into the Junk category on 25th July. Moody's had already downgraded them.

There's a fairly long list of items that need to be addressed in order to upgrade the debt rating back to investment grade. Varadi, however, seems to think that the Debt/EBITDAR ratio is the most important, it's currently at 4.4, Varadi is targeting 3.0 to resume investment grade.

The Fitch statement after the downgrade makes interesting reading because I don't think it's negative. It suggested that the downgrade was simply rules driven.

Another opinion of mine is that if you're going to buy Wizz now, why wouldn't you hold it at least until it gets it's investment grade Debt back? That's the point where a lot of institutional investors will enter.

Management are very focused on getting back to investment grade Debt.