Member Info for YesIam

B777Captain. I am not using AI. All I need is their published reports and excel.

To the topic about WIZZ is operating at much higher cost vs RYR: I posted few times that I got the feeling WIZZ actually has the lower operating unit cost despite the much smaller fleet and that's why I believe RYR is not reporting ASK/CASK figures in their yearly and quarterly reports. But RYR now published their F26 Annual report in which they do report ASM. And from this you will see that Wizz operating cost per available seat kilometer is 4,2 cents vs RYR 4,67. So WIZZ is operating their fleet at 10% lower unit cost. That's a big deal if you take into account that RYR got 2,5 times larger fleet and 10% of the WIZZ fleet is still grounded. Interesting to see their fuel CASK: WIZZ 1,34 cents vs RYR 1,94 cents. That's 30% difference. Part of the difference is coming from the shorter routes that RYR is flying obviously but the rest is pure fuel efficiency and fleet structure. Boeing might certify the MAX10 by end of this year and start to deliver them but by the time RYR is going to reach 50% LEAP engines WIZZ will have a full NEO fleet with an average of 230+ seat per aircraft vs RYR 190-200. So for me this cost advantage will remain there for the next 5 or so years.

But here comes the revenue part. RYR is doing much better in unit revenue. RYR RASK is 5,55 cents vs WIZZ 4,31 with LF of 94% vs 91%. So despite WIZZ is flying 35% longer routes they can not really turn it into revenue like RYR does. Or if we look at revenue per PAX figures like RYR reports them: Wizz makes 82 EUR per pax vs RYR 75. But the yield is only 2 EUR vs RYR 12 EUR per PAX.

When the new WIZZ routes going to mature and the remaining 10% of the fleet gets back to operations this yield will improve significantly and again the cost base is already lower than RYRs. Imagine that 1EUR higher revenue per PAX would've resulted +70 mEUR. Or 1% improvement in the load factor with the same unit revenue would've resulted +63 mEUR.

What I am trying to say is that all these posts about poor hedging, high cost, debt, bankruptcy is pure nonsense. WIZZ needs to work on the revenue part and things will change quickly. It will be challenging in F27 when they are putting 20+% capacity on the market but on the longer run it looks promising. Operationally they look robust. that's for sure.

Pogo certainly watched it.

AK57, Let's see. Guess the 100% LF and good RASK for UEFA finals will help a bit but 77 flights out of 100.000 in the quarter will not really move the needle.

Beo1, I assume that this is factored in their ex-fuel CASK guidance. Means should those planes still be parked the ex-fuel CASK would not be flat(ish) YoY.

If the Q1 results will in line with the outlook given last week, then Q1 EBIT and OP results will be negative. As said many times before throwing that huge capacity on the market will put RASK under pressure. Now their outlook is ASK up 15%, RASK down mid-high single digits.

LF flat, Ex Fuel cask flat(ish). Fuel cask will be ~5% up I think. With a single calculation this is 200 million operating loss in Q1. This market gain will have a cost. If one wanted Wizz to be a growth story again, this looks like a growth story for me.

It does not mean the SP can not go up to 15-16 in few months but it is not the Q1 results that will result in a rally unless there is a surprise in it.

:) :) :)

Why are you keep asking this question every day?

Had a quick look in the report. Will go through it in details during/after the investor call. But what I see at a first glance:

-F26 ASK was up 8,5% while RASK was more or less flat. Q127 ASK up 15%,seats up 25% while RASK down mid-high single digits. This is what the market will dislike. I had the same concern that this capacity increase will put RASK under pressure.

- GTF. Good news there is a progress on the topic. They claim 24 AC grounded as of now. Well, this seems a bit of a made up figure. 29 AC is parked today with regards to the GTF issue. Two seems to be undergoing the RTS check at the moment so if they consider these are back to service already, well this is still 27 AC. Three brand new XLRs are parked and their engines were used on other grounded AC. These might not be affected by the AD, but parked for the exact same reason. Hope some of the eagle eye analysts will get into this during the call.

- Overall seems to be a good report. They are at break even in F25 and F26 with all these issues. I still believe we are over the bottom and this airline will come into profit in the next years. With the current SP it is a buy for me. Operationally they are really strong. Without the GTF issue thy would be profitable already regardless of geopolitics.

- No guidance for F27. Well, RYR did not give either. Like last year. If analysts start to bit..ng about this again that'll tell how biased they are.

Don’t use AI. It will give you two completely different answers on the same question depending how you ask it.

“ Because they only have 55% coverage for the full fiscal year,”

Wrong. Your data is wrong.

@D9Ber1. They have released 5 aircraft since April and stopped one. So at the moment I see 29 on ground for engine inspections. This can drop further in the upcoming days as there is activity around two more AC. Lucas would be the most reliable source to confirm though.

Lucas are you still around?

Watch the CNBC interview with the CEO today. Quite informative. Varadi sees no fuel shortage at all in Europe and no signs of it in the peak summer period. Wizz is now 80% hedged until end of F27 at prices close to pre war. So they are in par with RYR and EZJ on this. O Leary also said no signs of fuel shortage. Fuel prices likely to remain elevated hence the high level of hedging. So if they are all hedged roughly the same extent at similar prices the one who will have the most efficient fleet is going to be in better position. Wizz fleet is 75% neo vs RYR 32%. Average seat per aircraft Wizz 230 vs RYR 190. And this gap going to widen only in the next few years. The longer the oil prices remain high the higher Wizz advantage going to be. At least in fuel efficiency.

Summer bookings are up YoY so I’m not worried about load factor either. FY26 will be slightly positive which is good news given the profit warning earlier this year. I think what the market will be looking for is the revenue guidance. I am sure the RASK is under pressure with Wizz growing 20+ percent YoY. If they can keep it at a reasonable level F27 going could be positive. RYR is reporting a nice profit at the end and I think they are better in RASK. They fly shorter routes which creates higher RASK. On the cost side WIzz I believe is better than RYR. Whatever O’Leary says. That’s why RYR usually is not reporting ASK and CASK figures. They must do it in their annual report though so when it is published for F26 we can compare it with Wizz which is out next week.

Call me a ramper but at this price level with all the above and with the latest developments on the GTF topic I am more than bullish. And sit and watch when those bearish analysts claiming Wizz is not well hedged will turn into Wizz bulls in no time coming up with higher and higher price targets.

Why would the majority sell it for 15? This share was almost 15 before the Iran war. At that time the F26 guidance was something like +/- 25 mio if I remember well and around 35 aircraft grounded for the engine shop visits. These KPI’s only improved since then.For some swing traders who got in at these price levels that would be a nice return for sure. But for the majority of shares? Nah

*buy

So you were stupid enough to by at 10 plus. That's says it all.

Goldfinger77 Member since Mar 2026 - "Who was stupid enough to buy at 10 plus ..... some here never learn."

:) :) :) :) You became so clever after the war started. That's not a huge achievement buddy.

Wizz using this situation to gain market not profit. All airlines are cutting back on capacity. In April WIZZ had +23% YoY. For H1 the plan is +28% Yoy. In the last 2-3 weeks WIZZ took over 5 new and released 3 grounded aircraft. Who else does this in Europe? Ryanair would maybe but their MAX8 order is filled, and MAX10 is not yet certified afaik. EZY can't grow. LHA, AFKLM can grow only by acquisition.

Here is they key sentence from their last press release: "To maintain this booking momentum and protect load factors amid geopolitical uncertainties, we have strategically utilized promotional fares to stimulate demand during H1 F27." Which means the demand is there and they are willing to sacrifice RASK(and net results of course) in order to fill the aircraft and gain market. With 2,1 bio in cash they are well positioned to do that. Be prepared that they won't give us F27 guidance or if so that won't be too optimistic. But if you look at a longer horizon WIZZ is not badly positioned to be one of the winners in Europe. Short squeeze and relief rally is one thing but being one of the main players in europe will give a structural strength to this share.

Analysts giving price targets of 400-500p are simply looking at the next 6 months and speculating on prolonged middle east conflict and real disruption in fuel supplies. Which can happen of course creating a covid like selloff in the industry but if it does not happen the same analyst will increase the price target in a blink. So without reasonable argument this means nothing. They looked at WIZZ as a growth story few years ago pushing the SP up to 5500p making poor davidkov to buy in.

Healthy balance sheet, 75% NEO aircraft, strong OEM orderbook, less and less grounded aircraft. Wait until the same analysts will see WIZZ as a growth story again.

Interesting to see their cash position. The balance was 2bio EUR at the end of Q3 and after repaying the remaining 500m bond in January, by end of Q4 the cash is back at 2.1 bio. That's a strong liquidity. WE shall see lower leverage ratio for F26.