Member Info for YesIam

He want's to buy below 1000. He is a swing trader. That's why he told everyone last week to sell at 1020 as a last change. Like his comments has any impact on the SP. Now this is mixed with some weird phobia of shamans and a clear mental or bipolar disease.

OTCDS2023, got your point. I do not completely disagree. On the other hand knowing the industry very well I am sure that they managed the GTF issue the best possible way. Don't forget that WIZZ had already more than 100 NEO in its fleet when the AD came out. There is no chance that any airline would have done it better. They all depends on OEMs mercy. Let is be P&W, Boeing or any other OEM. The 737 MAX groundings pushed Norwegian into insolvency although thy had only like 10-20 MAXs that time.

Communication is a different topic. On that they can improve although for me they just say things as they are, especially with regards to the GTF topic. The two profit warnings did not look good last year I agree.

BTW besides being long with the speculation that GTF/UKR resolution will push the SP back over 20 even 30, I also do swing trades on these price levels so I can book some profit or average further down on my long position. I agree that volatility makes this share a good candidate for swings.

Good luck.

UK CAA is already on Christmas Holidays in mid November. Do we wonder why Gatwick and Heathrow TAX-es are that high? :D

Sapi72, they finance around 80% of the fleet via SLB and 20% via financial leases according to the H1 call. In Q1 they've said out of the 50 deliveries 42 planned to be SLB in F26. So it is not half of the new deliveries but the plan is to reduce the ratio of SLBs.

Taut, there is no such equation between H225 and H226. They can book higher loss in H2 this year than previous. Especially with their slightly lowered RASK estimate Yoy. Actual traffic data and Q3 report will give us some guidance about full F26.

OTCD, Varadi is clearly not a good speaker. There is room to improve there for sure. But from analyst and market point of view wouldn't it be the actual content that matters? Ukraine resolution will be a catalyst for sure but two major issue that pushed WIZZ shares to current levels are Ukraine and GTF. Both out of their control. And if you look at it from this aspect they managed this rather well given the fact that the whole industry was just getting out covid when these happened. And there are visible signs that they will be able to turn it around. F25 around break even without that tax credit. F26 seems to be similar. This in a situation where most airline would have gone bankrupt. Wizz had 30% of their fleet grounded at the peak and still managed to get to break even.

All those noise about the debt/bankruptcy/delayed deliveries are actually proved to be overreaction from the market. Yes. Abu Dhabi was not a success story either, lack of hedging etc. So there were some F..ck ups. But in general I think there is an overall negative sentiment in the analyst community, which is partially driven by the fact that there is this eastern european CEO with his interesting accent being rather overconfident. When he does not give full year guidance in Q1 everyone goes ballistic. RYR does the same, no one cares. So many noise about aggressive growth strategy. When they cut it back than noise about delaying deliveries. This what makes the SP tank on short timeframe and not the fundamentals or management comm strategy in my view . Weren't the same analysts and market looked at WIZZ as a growth story few years ago? Varadi had the same s...tty presentation skills then.

There is no problem here about different opinions so put it out here. Breaking balls with john and pogo is different. They are just trolling but they can not comment on facts because they don't know. So they get trolled as well. But having different opinions, more than welcome.

Pogo, buddy. You have just admitted that you were swing trading WIZZ. Which is fine, I do swing trades as well. But why the big noise then about shamans and that all nonsense?

You still haven’t disclosed at what price did you sell wizz. And what was your average. But congrats on being 2 gbp positive in itv.

So you are looking for a good entry price in wizz. Like John. I am telling this for months. What you failed to disclose is at what price did you exit wizz last year and what was your average. That would put your comments in context:) :). :). In other words , you got burned. I hope you will find a good entry point but don’t read your own comments afterwards.

You are also a wizz fan.

Typical CAA guy. You can't argue with him. He is not used to someone having a different view. He pays visit at OEMs escorted by the sweating local quality manager and he is asking questions and lectures. He asks random guys what manual are they working from, why there is a yellow tag on a part iso white tag, why there is an unattended screwdriver in the production line. Things like that. Then he presents the list of findings, everyone nodding when he speaks, then he leaves. He wants to have the same attention here without any added value. He might do well with other airline shares but not because he is an investor. Let's be clear on that. He never read an annual report in his life.

Read his posts in the RYR board. That tells a lot.

And he is a WIZZ fan anyway:)

There are some useful info in the report with regards to the fleet.

The updated delivery plan is as we expected before. 88 deliveries were shifted beyond F30 and 3 aircraft are sold. Based on the current plan their fleet is still going to grow by 6,9% between F27 and F30. With releasing the grounded AC it will generate 10-12 ASK growth YoY.

The redelivery plan is interesting: 18 AC planned this year. So far 7 is done. 3-4 in progress. 19 in F27, 25 in F28 and 14 in F29. To be honest I don't see this is happening, unless they return some in "as is" condition and pay compensation to the lessors . They will try to rid of the A320CEOs asap but the A321CEOs might stay in the fleet slightly longer In my view. I have a feeling they have a buffer in this plan for possible reopening of Ukraine. If that happens they keep the 321CEOs longer. My opinion only.

Another interesting part of the report: they had a contract with P&W to purchase 43 spare engines for the NEO fleet and these were delivered over the previous years (usually financed via SLB). The last engine was delivered May this year. In June they announced that P&W was selected to supply the engines for those 177 aircraft in the orderbook where the engine was not yet selected. In the H1 report, under capital commitments there is a new item to purchase 61 spare engines from P&W between 2025 and-2028. So this is a new deal and must have been part of the engine deal for those 177 AC. 16 of these 61 spare engines are to be delivered in H2 :

"As of 31 October 2025, 16 engine deliveries are projected for the second half of FY26. The Group may consider entering into external financing arrangements for certain engines".

Why it is interesting: It will speed up the GTF recovery for sure. Or at least some AC could be lifted with spares. But the other thing is, they will consider external financing. Most likely SLB. As I posted before , in those quarters where WIZZ did engine SLB deals besides the aircraft SLBs this gain was significantly higher (reducing CASK), makes me believe that they make more money on an engine SLB. If this is the case, and they will really take 16 engines in H2 (and these are not yet part of their H2 CASK assumption), it will support the operating result in a positive way. This is my personal opinion only maybe someone who has visibility on WIZZ tech ops, will confirm.

Stan36, P&W compensation is part of the operating expenses as it is booked as "other income" . So as aircraft SLB transactions.

What this means in terms of SP movement in short term I don't know. There are people here with much better understanding of financial markets. We saw everything between 970 and 1800 in the last 12 months.

On even more general level, I still see F26 as the "turnaround" year.

I did have a look in their presentation and the guidance given for H2 and full F26 and it seems to be really a high leve outlook. Also there are some slight discrepancies in it. Like "H2 CASK up low single digits", and "full F26 CASK broadly flat". Well, if H2 CASK is up let's say 4%, the total F26 CASK is down 2,5%.

Using these figures together with ASK up10% and RASK down "low single digits" for me it seems F26 operating result is really close to break even. Let's say +/- 100 mio. Again this is very high level calculation and 1% change in RASK could mean 20-25 mio difference on operating result level. Then this OP result is adjusted with the net cost of finance and TAX (or tax credit like last year).

At the moment for me it seems to be similar to F25 and on NET result level it could be even negative (in F25 there was a 190 mio tax credit given supporting the net result) . We will have a better understanding when we see the actual monthly traffic data and the fleet movements in H2. I think the management lacking the view on Q4 RASK at the moment and gave themselves some room for improvement rather than overcommitting themselves like last year. RASK/yield seems to be under pressure with the network re-allocation though. I will post also on what I see with regards to the fleet(deliveries/returns) that might also change a bit the picture regarding CASK.

Would be nice to see what others took from the report as a message.

It was me buying at 1082. sorry

Thanks B777Captain. Though I changed the inputs a bit and had a lower estimate yesterday, it still seems to be in range. especially the CASK,RASK and ASK estimates. What it tells me that the sort of guidance WIZZ gave during the Q1 call was not too much but at least they've delivered it.

Hope analysts pay a visit to this forum and pick up some optimism re Wizz. They just need to interpret the info given in the reports well and follow the fleet development. Which honestly should not be an issue for them with all those subscription data that they get and we don't.

Sapi72, I did a longer post yesterday including deliveries/SLBs. I doubt they bought any, but some might have been financed via Jolco or FTL. I will post later on what I take from this report with regards to fleet development.

Congrats. Nice swing trade. enjoy it.

John is busy selling his krugerrands to make funds for wizz