Member Info for YesIam

WizzUp. Great post. Do you have any link to where Austrian Bank advising clients on getting in WIZZ?

On the podcast that you are referring to, actually I also watched it and that comment about the leverage grabbed my attention as well. Wanted to ask here maybe someone knows why it is like that. Basically what they said is that for companies with high leverage ratio when things go south it goes quickly but it works other way around as well therefore it is not unusual to see SP go 5x in short time. Does anybody know why it is that? I did not get it.

Sapi72, thanks. I just would like to understand how this depreciation accounting works related to the fleet and the end of lease maintenance obligation. There is a chart in their F25 presentation on slide16 that shows how the "incremental SLB cost" looks like and it is like there is a negative cost in year 1 (guess this is the gain on SLB), from year 2-11 it is more or less a flat cost and there is a pike in cost at Year 12 when the lease term ends.

How does it look like in the PnL? In their report there is no leasing fee shown so I guess it is shown in the depreciation line. What I understand is that the end of lease maintenance obligations includes a lot of high cost repairs that normally would not be due by the maintenance manual (basically they returning a refurbished aircraft to the lessor), thus these maintenance events are somehow capitalized and depreciated over the lease term. But the value of the aircraft is also capitalized?

So what I would like to understand is

- why there is a spike in depreciation cost close to the end of lease

- and for the entire fleet they claim that the fix depreciation cost hits the PnL and since a lof of aircraft is inactive (not producing ASK) the CASK getting higher.

Anything you can educate on this topic is much appreciated.

Anyone here with IFRS16 knowledge? I would have some questions .

GLTader, I think your H1F25 figures are not correct. Those are rather the H1F24 figures. On the other hand your logic is correct and I am also wondering why analysts expect worse Q26 and H126 results vs Q2 and H126 despite all operational KPIs improved. I think their main concerns is the increasing maintenance and depreciation and maintenance related depreciation cost.

Garydav2, these analysts obviously know much more than we do hence their pessimism. In the model I created I have now further increased the maintenance and amortization CASK for Q2 resulting 30% and 15% increase YoY. This is what analysts most concerned about. With this input my model shows around 350mEUR H1 operaing profit which is more or less flat YoY. But I can not really model the financing expense and the TAX expense so getting to net result is hard without this knowledge. But if we assume that there is a substantial Fx gain coming from the weaker dollar vs F25 I would say financing expense could still be close to 0 resulting ~350 mEUR pre-tax profit for H1. On the tax I have zero knowledge.

Again my model using the actual ASK , LF data and the CASK,RASK guidance given by WIZZ in the Q1 call. All the rest is just assumption. Analysts have much more data. Let's see.

Great article

"Axel Strasse Morgan Stanley Analyst: Success rate: 37%, Average return: -5%. #8724 out of 10109 Wall Street Analysts"

He might be right re F26 results but I would not bet my life on his figures.

Fairwind, check my post from yesterday at 08.14 re Fleet Size. I think that will answer your question. BR

Ok, then what is your average price?

Pogo, If the decline is that obvious why don't you short it?

Indeed the management were criticized a lot about their hedging policy. Or lack of it. This seems to be now over. They are following a very neutral hedging now. Both re fuel and usd. Too optimistic growth was another one. Glad that they have realized it and cut back the growth plan.

Anon3. Fair enough. Is there any exact reason why you foresee further drop? Is it something fundamental or it is the overall market sentiment/ lack of trust in management?

You are not shrewd enough. You were just lucky because you had no free cash to invest earlier. Now you have and looked into WIZZ. For now, you don't like what you see. Fine. Acting as you act. Not fine.

"Learn how to read".

Ok, John. After I learned from you how to invest I will take some reading lessons as well.

"29 Oct 2025 15:56

B777. The way this share is performing and the rate it is decreasing this company will be lucky to survive the next 7 months never mind 7 years"

There are people here who invested before for different reasons for different timelines but most of them at higher prices. You call them rampers just because these people are discussing KPIs and metrics that are showing actual improvement. Which makes some people optimistic. And you can not challenge any of these facts regardless whether it is reflected in the actual SP or not. In the same time you are talking about RYR and Boeing and your krugerrands (WTF?). Who is the ramper? Tell us the on wing time of the LEAP engines vs the CFM56 if you are really in love with Boeing and RYR. Tell us the issue with the engine anti-ice on MAX10 and when it is going to be certified. Tell us the issues with the LEAP fuel nozzle coking and how this going to affect RYR. You realize that you are criticizing people about their decision who are already invested and with your arrogance? Nobody here said that you, who does not own any shares should buy now. While you are talking about bankruptcy without any facts. Just because MoL said that. And you have your buddy Pogo here who is envisaging electric aircraft in 10 years and calling shaman everyone here who is not crying. You two are just the biggest clowns. Add DavidKov and you have a dream team.

John, you posted here what is known for years. You pretend to be the expert both in aviation and in investing while you are telling nothing. If you are an FAA inspector why didn't you post here first of all how many of the WIZZ MSN-s are affected by the AD (and how many remaining), what is the actual TAT of these shopvisits worldwide. Or any useful info that others who are already in WIZZ could use to evaluate whether it makes sense to close the positions and book some loss or to hold tight. You might be a CAA inspector or a B1 or whatever you are ,but I am telling you you have no clue about the business overall neither about investing. I am sure you haven't read any of the results or listened of the investor calls of WIZZ. You pretend to warn people about the risks but what you are really doing is just enjoying that this time you are not the one being underwater and you can educate the little men from you armchair about you RYR shares and kugerrands. You have never ever challenged any of the facts that are posted here. You say Wizz will not survive 7 month. Any facts that supports this? You would not know which line to look at in their report. Only thing you know is where to look for the expiry date of the life vests and fire extinguishers in the aircraft.

AK57, it is more or less in line. There are two brand new aircraft (XLRs) that were stopped and the engines will be robbed from those and put on grounded NEOs. While the two donor aircraft are stopped already, the ones getting the engines are not yet operating. It takes time to swap the engines and components and reactivate the aircraft after a year of parking. But these two will be operative soon. There is a 3rd aircraft that already got back its own engines and currently undergoing a C-check and shall be operative within a week. So 33-34 is realistic.

WizzAir, with your average of 11,6 you seem to be very worried. Are you sure you did your own DD and you really long in this? Why would it go bankrupt?

AK57, GTF related is 36 now. There are more for other reasons of course.

Pogo, are you saying that those who are long in wizz with an average higher than the current SP (almost everyone) should sell now? Or what are you trying to say?

B777Captain, I was just wondering if lower CO2 emission/ PAX/ km (same load factor, same route structure) is in direct proportion with lower fuel burn. If so it seems WIZZ starting to benefit from it's NEO engines quite substantially.