Member Info for YesIam

Stan36, well average stage indeed has an effect, but I think it would be other way around. Shorter routes = higher CO per km as it burns much more fuel during climb. On the other hand this might be the answer why WIZZ is that much better than RYR because RYR is flying much shorter routes. For WIZZ itself YoY I still think it is the proportion of the NEO engines that are growing, but B777Captain would be the expert on fuel burn.

Any thoughts on the CO2 figures? The YTD average is 50,4 vs 52,2 a year ago. Adjusted with LF is 46,6 vs 48,3. This 4% drop I think is coming from the higher proportion of NEO aircraft in their fleet and can be translated to lower fuel consumption as well. What else could cause it when adjusted with LF? Captain777? How do you see it?

RYR at the same time has 64 g per pax/ with a target of reaching 50g. Is the 321NEO is really that much better vs 737NG/MAX in terms of fuel efficiency per pax?

JK1983, the total fleet size includes the grounded aircraft as well so any improvement on that side has no effect on the figure. The increase of 13 aircraft vs September I think is result of not 100% up to date figures in their previous RNS. They took delivery of 7 aircraft in October and 2 in September. The exact total figure is a bit of a moving target as they are also doing redeliveries and different sources shows different date for the redelivery. The airline will consider an aircraft in its fleet until it is really de-registered and removed from its books ,while some database might show the same aircraft as it left the fleet already earlier. Like there is one aircraft already in Volotea livery as it will be the next operator and was ferried yesterday to Spain but still with WIZZ call sign. Some database is already excluding this from WIZZ fleet size but officially is it still operated by WIZZ. So to answer your question the 250 is in line with my figures now but I think they had already more than 237 a month ago and it was rather just an outdated figure in their RNS.

Shamans? Are you OK mate? Halloween is over so you can chill.

1300 by year end.

Not really following EZY. For WIZZ GTF being the biggest one. Ukraine war has an impact but honestly I don't think that will be resolved soon and the exposure of WIZZ is not more than any other airline around. I am not talking about a potential Russia-NATO conflict. If that happens it does not matter what do we own or not. Middle east tensions? With closure of Abu Dhabi their exposure to middle east issues is really limited. TLV is a high yield destination for WIZZ and while the so called peace in Gaza seems to be very fragile at the moment it is unlikely that TLV flights needs to be paused. So I don't know.

IAG was 100p 3 years ago, 1/6 of their pre COVID level and 1/7 of their ATH. Now it is 400p. WIZZ is 1/4 of their pre-covid and 1/5 of their ATH. If SP is all market sentiment and manipulation and has nothing to do with the metrics what makes 3-4x bull run impossible in few years from current levels? Or levels from 800p what the no-name Citi analyst predicts?

Garydav2,Sapi72. Thanks, based on your comment it seems I am not completely wrong re debt and the fleet financing. That is reassuring

So all in all sorry for the long post but I am looking for comments on each and every points to see what am I missing or what is circulated here that is complete nonsense. There is a lot I think. Indeed it seams that the SP is pushed down by manipulation. If the SP can be manipulated at all. I am not a broker so I don't know but if this is really the case it can be done the other way around also. So the so called MMs can not only push down but also pump the price as well. That's why I also don't get what is this obsession with the number of shorted shared. Can someone elaborate? Does it matter if it is 5% or 6%? They need to buy those shares back sooner than later.

- GTF. This is the most discussed topic in here and the impact was already priced in. I think full resolution alone would increase the SP by 10 GBP. But it seems that there is still a lot of misunderstanding about the grounded fleet. As of now 36 AC is on ground due to the GTF. And 3 is expected to go back to operation soon according to Lucas. One is getting it's original engines back and two will get the engines from the two maltese XLRs. One is being parked today. In H1F25 they reported 41 AC on ground vs the cca 35 at Sept 30 this year. So it is still a lot of aircraft but it is 20% less vs H1F25 and if we compare it to the total fleet it was cca 20% of the total fleet a year ago and it is around 15% now. So the trend if good. And the cost impact getting less and less and their depreciation cost is spread over the entire fleet which got bigger in one year. There are other aircraft grounded for different reason so to total number of inactive aircraft might be the same as a year ago. There are 8 A321 CEOs from the ex Abu dhabi fleet that are inactive and few might be used during peak Christmas period. BUT, these are airworthy aircraft and for me it seems that it is better to keep them inoperative now for whatever reason. If they would really need that capacity those aircraft would have been re-registered already.

- Cost: RYR claims they are the best. Which they are but I posted on this before I could find in RYR reports only cost per PAX . Where RYR is like 40% better than WIZZ. But WIZZ is flying 40% longer routes. I think RYR is not reporting CASK due to to fact that on CASK level WIZZ seems to be in par with them. Can someone explain to me what am I missing?

- Market: I liked the idea what WIZZ is opening routes into less developed markets especially in central Asia but doing it from AUH did not work out well due to the lack of support from UAE authorities. It seems to be clear that they also waived the idea to fly India from CE for the time being. All the XLR deliveries are going to UK reg. The two that is in Maltese reg are now being used as donor aircraft. But if WIZZ is reallocating it's capacity in Europe why there is the sentiment that they have no chance to succeed? It will put pressure on yield but EU itself is a market of 450 mio people. With UK it is over 500 mio , who believe that this market can not support 2 ULCC airlines? or let's say 3 with EZY? USA is 340 mio people and yes it is different market but Soutwest itself is s size of RYR and WIZZ together. So there is plenty of opportunity in Europe in my view.

There are so many topics being mentioned here and in many cases I have the feeling that these are either based on false/incorrect information, or maybe I am sitting backwards in the cinema although I am doing my own DD. I would like to do some fact checks.

-On fleet development: analysts claimed already in the past that the growth rate was way too optimistic and not sustainable. I posted before and it was discussed during the Q1 call, the fleet CAGR of 12,9% until F30 will be revised with the pullout from AUH. Now news are out that WIZZ in talks with Airbus on postponement of deliveries. But if they push 100 AC beyond F30 that is still 7% fleet CAGR and with the resolution of the GTF issues in the meantime that is more like a 12% CAGR on operating aircraft basis. With having higher seat density per AC by then the capacity CAGR will be even higher. So what is the problem here? I don't get it. It should be taken as a positive development.

- Wizz going bankrupt. What are the metrics that supports this? One I am hearing that MOL is saying that. Let's be serious. The other what is being mentioned is the high and increasing debt. I am far from being an expert in accounting and asset financing but my understanding is that they have cca 500 mEUR short term liability that which will be repaid by Jan 2026 and must be related to some bonds or something that was issued during covid. No short term liabilities after that. The 5b EUR debt in the books is related to the leasing of the fleet. As the fleet grows the debt grows. But revenue grows as well. This is not at all short term liability.

- WIZZ not owning it's aircraft. In addition to the one above can someone explain why it is really that bad? I understand that owning is cheaper than financing it but what is really the difference? And where this difference is coming from? One is being to meet the lease return conditions for. When you return the aircraft it has to be cleared from many maintenance tasks while if you own the aircraft you can sell it an "as is" condition. But what else? Actually I would challenge that WIZZ is not owning any aircraft. They do operating lease in most of the cases an book a SLB gain right at delivery. But they do a lot of JOLCO as well which is operating lease with call option. So they do not have SLB gain at the beginning but they have to right to purchase the aircraft at residual vale at the end of the term.

- Competition with RYR. Obvious that Wizz is compared against RYR as it has similar business model and a lot of overlap in their markets. And RYR has the ability to go in price wars on certain routes. But they were not able to choke WIZZ when WIZZ had only 30 aircraft. Why do we think it would make sense for RYR to go all in price war with an airline with 250 AC?

Taut, don't get me wrong you put your money in whatever you want but the risk of severe volatility in AI (in my view) is higher than in WIZZ. Sure, being exposed to only one company ( especially if it is an airline) is far from being safe but form me it seems that you played a bit of a momentum trading with WIZZ with no stop loss and it did not play out well so far. You have learned your lesson. On the other hand what makes you think that WIZZ will go bankrupt? Forget O'leary, ha was saying the same in 2010.

Sapi72,

Fully agree.

AK57, thanks. My list seems to be correct then.

Sapi72, actually the 4 NEOs are already re-registered and flying. From the 8 CEOs they might reactivate few for the peak Christmas period but they are not re-registered yet. As far as I know.

No, it is less than that. 3 aircraft in Ukraine. 8 ex-Abu Dhabi CEOs are parked. At least 3-4 aircraft undergoing end of lease. Plus the regular C-check lines if you count these as non operative.

Also the total fleet size if a bit of a moving target as different sources showing differently, especially those which are in lease return phase.

B777Captain,

I have 35 on my list. 36 if the XLR in PRG which had the tail strike is used as a donor aircraft.

The guy who wrote this article missed the fleet size by 100 aircraft :)

He was the one selling at 970pp

Taut, you think they're swapping engines from new XLRs to regular, grounded NEOs just to show that they are doing something?