Member Info for YesIam

He must be busy with replacing engines :)

B777Captain,

Thank you for the link. I checked and indeed he says unit cost is 77% higher. But the sound quality is not great and not 100% sure what unit cost he speaks about but if I get it well he says unit cost per seat ex fuel. It is at 5:30 in the video. If so, my below conclusion could actually be correct. MOL says it as it sounds best for him but no way WIZZ CASK is 77% over RYR. Even with the expensive fleet financing they are identical. But their RASK is below RYR.

Another aspect of this is that by end of F28 95% of the WIZZ fleet will be NEO aircraft (as per plan). RYR fleet is now 1/3 MAX8 and 2/3 NG. The MAX8 order is fulfilled so even if Boing starts to deliver the MAX10s in 2026, RYR will have no more than 40% of its fleet with next GEn engines by F28E. And even if they take over the 300 MAX10s by 2034 and grow to 800 Aircraft as they plan they still going to be operating 300 NGs.

RYR average seat density is around 192 seats per AC at the moment and will not go over 206 seats when they have 300 NGs+200 MAX8s and 300 MAX10s. WIZZ is already at 227 and will go up to 234-235 by F28. These should give WIZZ further cost advantage over RYR assuming they can fill these 321s :)

MOL claimed how high WIZZ cost base is. Someone mentioned 77% higher CASK or something. Honestly I don't believe it. I wanted to compare but RYR is not reporting their ASK neither their CASK. In F25 they reported unit cost of 36 EUR vs WIZZ 52 EUR, which is significant difference. But the unit cost RYR is talking about is per PAX not per ASK. Since there is no RYR ASK data available I tried to calculate it by myself as RYR is reporting their average stage length and sectors flown. I also calculated the average number of seats per aircraft on their current fleet. The figure is not 100% exact but gives an idea. And the CASK I see is RYR 4,64 cents vs WZZ 4,19 cents (F25 Actual). And the reason why the cost per PAX of WIZZ is higher by 40% is coming from a simple fact that WIZZ average stage length is 1750 km vs RYRs 1250 km. 40% longer flights, 40% longer cost per PAX. What a surprise. So it is again typical MOL b..hit. What RYR does better however besides the load factor is the Revenue per ASK. I came up with a figure of RYR 5,23 cents vs WIZZ 4,33 cents. Wizz generates higher revenue per PAX (80EUR vs 63 EUR) but not higher enough to offset the longer stage length. My point is that WIZZ CASK seems to be better than RYR despite they had 45-50 aircraft on ground in F25. If all aircraft were operating WIZZ unit cost would be way below RYR offsetting the lower revenue per ASK. In my view if WIZZ can get over the cost burden of AOGs and the lease returns in 2 years time they will be well positioned against RYR. My calculation might be totally wrong so feel free to correct me.

Volaris, Indigo, Frontier are the most affected I would say

Johnbri4. See, that's my point. You haven't made any money with RYR yet. You are up 100% which is great and most likely you will not loose money with it. But you invested into an airline. And took the risk of all uncertainties around Boeing deliveries or the risk of the entire MAX fleet being grounded worldwide. What has happened before, for years. Imagine what 200 grounded aircraft would mean for RYR share price. Your timing with RYR was great and their latest results are also impressive. That's why I am saying you got lucky. But if someone has a position in WIZZ with current price levels also have the chance to see nice return in 1-2 years time. What's the difference?

John. Nothing against gold nor Ryanair. Let's forget gold for now. It is not relevant here. I also have real estate investment but not trying to convince everybody here that real estate is the way to invest smart. Ryanair is more relevant in here, and again nothing against RYR. They are the OG in Europe and even though MOL is a troll he knows what's the deal for sure. Just tell me when you got into RYR and what was your average? And at what price did you get out. If you are out at all?

John got lucky with RYR and IAG. Good for him. Why he choose these airlines that time remains unclear. He is here to see what the right price would be to get into WIZZ . He is looking for the next cheap airline stock to invest in. That's it. Nothing more.

Honestly, the GTF issue could last even beyond 2027. The peak 60 and the current 38 does not mean that only 22 were inspected. Wizz purchased 80 spare engines as well so many aircraft flying with spares. On the other hand the cost impact is going to be less and less as the fleet is growing and the number of grounded planes are reducing. Currently 15% of the NEO fleet is on the ground, a year ago it was 25%. This should be seen in the results as well.

I had 35 grounded aircraft on my list that are related to engine inspections. If it is really 38 as the CFO said it means that the two ex-Abu Dhabi NEOs in KTW are also considered grounded ( maybe they used their engines on other AC saving on the re-registration process) and the one being AOG in PRG after the hard landing might also have been used as a donor aircraft. Would be nice to see a comment from someone who has visibility on this.

B777Captain, Taut,

I can only tell what the current situation and trend is but don't have hands on info about their current operational developments and plan. I can only use public data and the WIZZ presentations. What happens with the ex-Abu Dhabi fleet is a bit of a grey zone for me. If you go to page 6 in their Q1 presentations it says :

"Four NEOs to be redeployed as soon as reregistered" - two is done already

"Eight CEOs to be parked except for Christmas and holiday peak traffic" - four aircraft ferried over to KTW, four are in AUH still. Some sources shows two of these already as "to exit the fleet". So they might return some of these 8 aircraft and might reregister some for the peak Christmas period.

So the capacity obviously lower compared to the previous month when they had the AUH fleet operating. But whether the capacity is reduced vs their budget? Not sure.

Same Q1 presentation says as Q2 outlook:

-"Q2 ASKs up high single digits YoY" - They capacity is up 9,3% YoY for July-Sept. PAX are also up 9% for the same period.

-"Q2 RASK - Flat YoY"

-"Load factor - Flat" - it looks like it is flat YoY.

- "Q2 CASK - Fuel CASK: down high-single digits; ex-fuel unit trends expected to improve vs Q1".

If CASK was managed well, they seem to be in line with their outlook. Me personally have some concerns that the ex-fuel CASK element will really improve YoY. They planned to return CEOs this year anyway but if you park them 8 at a time is different to when you remove them from revenue operations nose to tail. Also wondering why the reregistration of those ex-Abu Dhabi NEOs takes so long. But lower fuel CASK and weak dollar could well offset this and we might get surprisingly good results for H1.

I keep tracking their fleet and the GTF groundings but as I said before it is rather to see if the trend is going to the right directions not to make any big conclusions out of it. It won't give us the full picture as we don't see the RASK and CASK elements.

My personal opinion is that WIZZ willing to sacrifice F26 results and maybe F27 as well in order to rid of unprofitable part of their network and as many CEOs as possible. Which is ok for me as together with the resolution of the GTF issue , it will better position them vs RYR in 2 years time.

Lets see what they report for H1.

Not bad numbers at all given the fact that from 1st of Sept 8xA321 CEOs were parked in Abu Dhabi. Two of these been ferried to KTW already either for re-registration to EASA or for lease return check. I guess the latter maybe Lucas could confirm? It seems the demand is there and the cost will be the real question in the H1 results not the revenue. Varadi mentioned several times that besides the GTF groundings there is an additional cost pressure related to end of lease checks that increases the maintenance CASK and maintenance related depreciation. Normally a CEO and CFO would not talk too much about maintenance as it is only one of the cost elements of an airline and not even the biggest one. For me it is a sign that this is their headache at the moment which they hardly can calculate hence the lack of guidance for FY26. Hope they have a better picture now and can give us guidance in the H1 reports. What could offset the CASK increase in my view is the weaker dollar and lower fuel CASK. In ex-fuel CASK I expect steady increase vs H1 25 and for the entire FY26 as well. Let's see how RASK, fuel CASK and the USD/EUR Fx can offset this.

How credible is that? JPM increased their short on 23 July at around 1070. Price went up to 1400. There was a pullback but not enough so last week they cut their price target by 50 p to 1050 without any news. :) I don't get how this is even legal. Thing never change.

Good discussion. I like it.

B777Captain, many thanks. Well, in my initial case I was calculating on a 1-2 years horizon and now in 3-4 years with the speculation I mentioned below. In this timeframe 80-120 GBP is not realistic in my view but I am not saying it will not reach that level once and also If i see the SP reaching my initial target and still has the momentum I will keep my position for sure.

Normally a stop loss would have closed my position already and the reason I kept it is that I am closely following the GTF topic and the fleet development. And I still ok with the progress I see. Wizz cash position is strong and the engines are starting to go back on wing. Even though it is still a burden and puts a pressure on the SP I don't see signs that Wizz will get into insolvency. This makes me believe that the topic is well managed. They made 200m profit last year with 25% of the fleet being on ground. This is a good sign for me.

Should the tension in UKR ease, GTF topics solved and overall economy in Europe being ok WIZZ will be one of the winners for sure and my target price will be increased. But we are not there yet. Especially with the war in UKR.

On the other hand I like that WIZZ is reallocating its capacity in markets less vulnerable on the ME tensions and also less effected by the UKR war.

Taut, I meant 3-4 years total and 20% yearly return. Which is really good. S&P500 5Y CAGR is 15%, 10Y CAGR is around 13%. I can't disagree that a 12% p.a low risk investment is something one might consider and obviously I am also not all in WIZZ either. I have other less risky investments as well and risk tolerance is totally up to an individual and its portion of that investment in the total portfolio. For me Wizz risk/reward potential is still within my tolerance and a further temporary drop in SP without any major news is a possibility to further average down. To a certain point. S&P 500 index fund on 20-30 year term is hard to beat. But depends on timing as well. Getting into it when markets are overinflated might give you a much lower or even negative CAGR if you looking at a 5Y horizon. If you looking at 20 years steady return airlines are not a first choice of investments for sure.

Those who have positions in WIZZ, what is your investment strategy and what made you get in? You can be short, long I don't mind. I am wondering who is in for swing trade and who is in for mid or long term and what is your target price? For long term investors it has to be a good CAGR as it is obviously more risky investment than a index fund. And who else has positions in other airlines?

Me personally got in as the price was beaten down due to the GTF and Ukraine. My initial play was that Wizz will get over the GTF issue and once it is over they will have one of the newest ,most efficient fleet in Europe and they'll be one of the largest NEO operator in the world. Peace in Ukraine and in ME would be another huge catalyst for sure. Demand in Europe and especially in CEE is strong . I also believe that Airbus won the narrowbody game with their 321NEO over the MAX9-10 and there won't be a new narrowbody design for the next 10-15 years for sure. I know the industry rather well and can connect the dots when it comes to technical or operational questions so that's also part of the decision. I wouldn't have done the same speculative play with a company that operates in an industry I have no clue of.

What I also liked was their expansion towards east where they don't have to compete with RYR for every PAX. How it played out in AUH I don't like obviously but I glad they realized and closed that ops. And I hope they will return the central asian and enter the Indian market flying from Europe directly and not via dodgy joint ventures.

Started to build up my current position in WIZZ at the beginning of 2024 and around 20 GBP with a price target of 30-35 GBP within 1-2 years. Things didn't go as planned but I still keep my initial speculation especially with the engines so averaged down to around 15-16 GBP and extended my timeline to 3-4 years with the same price target. That could give me a CAGR around 20%. Which is not bad at all. So I am not here for the 80-120 GBP price level which I don't really believe in.

I also realize the geopolitical risk in this area so I am not saying what I am doing is good, but can afford to sit on this for few more years. Wondering what the others' approach is.

PS: I am not a WIZZ fanatic. I have and had positions in other airlines as well. Some played out well some didn't.

B777Captain, I don't think they have returned 19 CEOs in F25 but rather 8-9. For F26 the plan was to return 18 and take delivery of 50 NEOs. So far they returned 2 and took delivery of 19. Their fleet plan is changing constantly so I would not count too much on what they've said back in June. There is a progress for sure and 19 deliveries from Airbus so far is a good indication. Exiting Abu-Dzabi changed the picture again.

Captain777,

I have 36 on my list that is grounded due to the GTF issue. One is already ferried over to KTW for C-check so the number should drop to 35 shortly. There is one more that Lucas mentioned will soon be released so 34-35 seems to be doable by end of H1.

Besides the GTF groundings, 2 more ex-abu dhabi NEOs are still parked for re-registration (2 already got EASA tail sign and back to operations). 8 ex-Abu dhabi CEOs are parked in AUH. Not sure what their plan is with those but if I recall they mentioned something that these might be parked temporarily and returned back to lessors soon. One XLR is parked in PRG after the tail strike, and I would not be surprised if its engines goes on a grounded NEO and they keep rather the XLR on the ground. That's only my opinion. And three AC in Kiev of course.

So overall 50 (36 due to GTF) AC on ground excluding the ones which are on normal base maintenance or undergoing end of lease checks. That's part of the normal business and capacity plan so I am not counting those.

I am using conventional databases so might not be 100% accurate.

Lucas, thanks. Do you have any info about the ex-abu dhabi fleet? The NEOs that are parked in KTW. One is already in EASA reg if I am not mistaken but what happens with the other 3 and the 8 CEOs that are in Abu Dhabi still? Seems that in September much more AC is on the ground and wondering how the ASK will look like compared to August. They got 2 new AC this month though.

LOL.Johnbri4, I thought I can read but you made me uncertain. Nobody said you can't post if you have no shares. But don't get offended if there is a response other than what you have expected. We get it. Airlines are risky investments. Thanks for the heads up. I tell you what: investing in NVidia now is risky as well. And come on man, you are here because you want to get a feeling whether it makes sense to open a position in WIZZ at these prices levels or not. Don't tell me you are here only to lecture us little men about the downside of investing in this industry while you are long in 3 airlines. Come up with real arguments. It is not about ramping or not. You can be bearish or bullish does not matter. But argue. You can even be a IAG ramper and convince us to open position there as well. I wish I did not miss the good entry there...Take care,no hard feelings.

Are airlines speculative investments? Sure, no doubt about that. Are airlines vulnerable to a lot of things out of their control? 110%. But I never understood why someone having no interest in a particular share at all comes to a forum and trolling it with no real input. Like the late davidkov who allegedly was a cripto millionaire having no interest in WIZZ at all while posting ten times a day that "big fall is coming". The reality: he either was a bagholder who threw the towel in at 10 GBP and disappeared, or he was a short seller who had the belief that scaring 5 retail investors in a forum going to have any effect on the SP. He was mental anyway. My point is, if you have any valuable input why WIZZ is bad investment now, or at this price level then share with us. I have no problem if someone raising concerns about a stock or an industry I am doing it as well. That's why we have this thread.

Few of us including me are talking a lot about technical and operational issues here. And the reason being is that the current SP is heavily driven by the engine problems. If Wizz had only two AOGs related to the GTF issue nobody would talk about that for sure. And the price would be over 30 GBP anyway.

You allegedly visiting the 737 assembly line so I guess you are involved either in airline or leasing business. Share with real info. When the MAX10 is being certified? How RYR deliveries look like at the moment? Do you know anything about GTFs and the supply chain RTX facing with?

See my point? You can post whatever you want but coming here as someone investing in airlines for a long time, allegedly being in the business as well and telling everyone that it is a death trap and we all should buy gold... Well. Not really credible. This you can do on reddit or stocktwits.com.