Member Info for YesIam

Overall, 15-16 AC is back to service. What I meant is that out of those that were grounded last January only one is released so the TAT is already over 300 days. I was trying to count only those that are grounded due to the engine issue. The others are in regular base maintenance event I suppose which is normal. That is calculated in the capacity plan. 3 more AC are still in Kiev though. I am not aware of any other groundings. Except maybe some AOGs. That's also normal.

The question regarding the GTF issue is the TAT of each AC, or its engines basically. So far 300 days were calculated as an average. My main concern is if P&W can't keep this TAT the next aircraft will be due and will be grounded. Thus keeping the number of grounded AC around 40 will be challenging. There were 19 aircraft put into storage in January 2024. Only one made it back to service so far. So they either start to reduce the utilization of the upcoming aircraft to save on flight cycles or they will reach the limit an simply ground more AC. Both will have impact on growth and unit cost. That is my concern.

I don't think so. EU competition office would have a saying in it. Look at how long does it take for LHA to take over ITA. They scrapped the IAG - Air Europe merger as well. That is a 40 AC airline.

Great, thanks. Think the impact of 40 AC grounded is priced in already in the SP. At least until 2026. Let's hope there are no other findings on the GTF engine that creates more AD. Air Baltic is struggling with it as well. Guess WIZZ has rather high priority at P&W since Indigo Partners has one of the largest A320 orderbook. Share is cheap, maybe not on few months but on a mid term I see great potential.

Thanks. Do you know how many engines in WIZZ fleet are affected and can you give me more info about the "after shop Repair"? Is it just the engine installation (+ installing components on the bare engine) or is it something more? Also wondering where do they send the engines for the inspection? Is it an engine shop P&W contracted? Or any shop where it is disassembled and just certain parts are sent to P&W? Just asking you as you seem to have maintenance experience and I am interested in the operational part of the issue.

My understanding is that a number of AC is affected by the problem and each will be grounded at a certain flight cycle or flight time. So not all the affected aircraft are grounded already and if one is released back to service does not meant that another one will not be stopped once reached it's limit given in the AD. That gives the average of 40 AC grounded at the same time until end of FY 2026. But it is not always the same 40 aircraft. I can be wrong though.

Will there be another one grounded simultaneously?

Anybody got more insights what CEO was reffering to yesterday by saying the P&W issues could take 4-5 years to resolve? New findigs, no shop capacity or what?

Actually majority of maintenance also USD

Two different things. Fuel is hedged so volatilty in oil prices is less of an impact. FX however will hit the results to a certain extend. Fuel,leasing typically paid in USD. And engine maintenane.

LOL, when you have to update your projects before going on holidays. Wondering how hard he was calculating :)

They expect 40-45 aircraft grounded at the same time for F25 and F26. It is not always the same aircraft. Delay in new deliveries also expected as Airbus announced. There is a fleet plan in their last presentation for the upcoming years. They have cca 227 AC at the moment with 265 expected by end of F26. Instead of the 277 contracted. That's 38 additional aircraft and since they will also be phasing out 12 A320CEOs next year which are replaced by bigger A321s it is still a substantial capacity growth. It is 51 aircraft deliveries in 15 or so months. That's still a really optimistic plan. Whether they need wet lease for the summer or not is not yet known imo. I am sure that is not part of their summer schedule. If Airbus further delay new deliveries before the summer or there is all of a sudden peace in ME and Ukraine, that's a different story. Actually I believe that the PWC issue and the delays in new deliveries rather support WIZZ in the current uncertain situation in the ME. They at least can get some sort of compensation from PWC and utilize their operating fleet on profitable routes. The real challenge will come when those grounded aircraft are coming back to the operation together with the new deliveries. If by then growing towards east is still not possible they will have to deploy capacity on markets with strong competition from RYR and EZY. Btw competition is also struggling with new deliveries. RYR does not have engine issues but they also experiencing delays in new deliveries from Boeing. Share price of 11 GPB is not justified in any way in my view. Not even below 30 GBP, but as we see markets react differently. It is not the wet lease cost that will make the SP 11 or 50. Question if they are still profitable.

You retired and hangign out in a wizz forum? What is wrong with you?

What is the difference between "The Great War" and the "Big war"? Asking for a friend.

The downgrade from Citi does not mean too much. They initiate a sell rating based on higher expected unit cost for Q2 and "only" 19% capacity growth next year? That's not a sell for me. If ME further escalates that's a different story but WIZZ still could reallocate their capacity elsewhere.