Member Info for YesIam

Air France is up 25% today and Lufthansa 12% after reporting better demand and growth prospect. This is good news for the entire industry in Europe. And shows how oversold European airlines are. I would not be surprised to see similar movements in WZZ either.

Well, aircraft issues are far from being sorted

Nothing fundamental, but the recent price increase of CEE stocks was driven by the peace trade.

I assume shares will be traded at a discount on Monday.

Actually I like the guy, he is funny. "Democrats will come back, last chance to sell". LOL. Mate, before democrats come back even you will have the chance to brake even with your package that you must have bought at 55 GBP in 2021. Until that, please keep posting.

Mate, you think you gonna make a panic selloff with these comments? The total shares held by people here is few thousand. LOL

If the war is over I see this easily above 25. If the engine issue is solved, in the 40s - 50s.

I doubt year end results will be on top end of forcast which was based on 1,05 EUR/USD Fx. Which is not being the case at the moment.

Because if an engine reach a certain flight hour or flight cycle limit the aircraft must be grounded.

David, then short it buddy!

Re FX hedging. I am not an expert but how do you hedge against factors like Trump? Which was obviously the driver? It can go another way easily in a second if he or one of his buddies posting something on X.

I think the main issue is the groundings, not the FX impact or the debt. As the fleet grows the debt will increase due to leasing but the financial debt is going to 0 by F27 which is a good sign. Also good sign for me is that the SP did not go below ~11.7 which was a support already 2 times in the past 12 months. So in my view these issues are already priced in the current SP. Me personally using this as a possibility to average down. Risk is there obviously but I don't think this company will go bust. Management can be criticized for a lot of things but I doubt there are any other airline that can mange the GTF issue any better. They use all their purchasing power against P&W and even with this they have 40AC grounded, half of them are on ground for more than one year. Although I am sure they get priority when it comes to engine slots and spare engines. With 177 AC from their orderbook still "unengined", means WZZ can choose the other engine supplier. That is a huge pressure on P&W parent RTX. 177 AC is 354 engines, at least 10 mUSD each. But do not underestimate the power and (negligence) of OEMs. The Airbus - Boeing duopoly does not create real competition which is reflected in how they handle these issues. Same applies for the few engine manufacturers. Norwegian went into insolvency partially because of how Boeing was dealing with the 737 MAX groundings. And Norwegian had 100 AC orderbook that time. Funny enough, check the FY 2024 report of P&W parent RTX. P&W generated 2 bUSD operating profit. In their financial report there is even a line called "powder metal charge". And guess how many millions is booked on that line for 2024?Nil. :) There is another talkative line in their report called "charge related to customer insolvency". Also zero dollars for FY24. So honestly I don't even think they paid any compensation so far to WIZZ. Or at least not in 2024. Wizz management is focusing on getting those aircraft back in the air. The projected 10-15% growth YoY is only achievable if Airbus can manage at least the revised delivery plan (which is 75 aircraft less by 2028) and the grounded aircraft are back in service in due course. If this happens there is a huge potential in the share price (RYR is planning ~3% growth YoY due to the delays of B737s) Changing CEO now would not be a good idea in my view.

KPa1. Well , on the 737 you have no option slike on the A320. It is CFM only(GE-Safran JV). On 787 you can choose between GE and RR. Rest of the Boeing types are GE.

Lucas88. They have 177 AC in their orderbook for which they did not decide yet on the engine type. They shall do it by April. I would not be surprised if they choose Leap for those. This is what I meant.

I would not be surprised if they go with CFM engines for the remaining 177 AC.

Let's see the analyst ratings. I expect some downgrade on the next few days.

That's the play here. Without the engine issues this would be in the 30s. Without the Ukraine and ME situation in the 50s in my view. So now you can get in cheap speculating on the recovery of the GTF groundings. If another issue popping up with this state of the are engine then we are f....d.

Mad mat,

IAG is not using P&W but CFM on their Neo fleet. There are others also impacted or will be. The earlier an operator took delivery of the A320Neo the earlier they need to face with the issue. WIZZ is an early operator and they took over these aircraft quite rapidly. 65% of their entire fleet is A320 Neo already. But that also means that WZZ will be over with it earlier. Volaris,Spirit,Frontier, IndiGO, LHA are also impacted by this. Just to name a few

Https://www.wizzair.com/cms/api/docs/default-source/downloadable-documents/corporate-website-transfer-documents/results-and-presentations/f25-q3-results-presentation-vfinal.pdf

~11.8 seems to be a strong support in the last 12 months.