Member Info for YesIam

Sapi. Just wanted to say the same. I expect a large drop in leverage ratio after end of F27. In F27 they still plan to ground 25-30 AC putting pressure on EBIDTA. But there will be a sharp drop afterwards.

Squezee those shorts!

D9Ber1, On the fleet: just as I predicted last week. I said 336 AC by F30E. Current plan: 334 AC by F30E. The difference is that 2 AC they seems to be sold right after delivery and Jetsmart took them. Will post an update later on.

Wanted to grab some more below 1000 but did not go through :)

Stan36, correct. And 2,35 - 2,71 diluted EPS.

B777Captain, if you are in long and averaging down that 30p makes not much difference.

Here is my prediction for tomorrow:

- H1 Revenue: 3,383 mio vs 3,066 H1F25

- H1 ASK: 64.484 bio vs 61,607 in H1F25

- H1 RASK: 5,00 cents vs 4,98 in H1F25

- CASK: 4,57 vs 4,54 in H1F25

- Ex-fuel: 3,22 vs 3,00 in H1F25

- EBIDTA: 980 mio vs 826 in H1F25

- Operating result: 390 mio

-Net result: 300-350 mio

- Period end fleet: 243 vs 224

- GTF grounding at 30 Sep: 35 vs 41 at 30 Sep 2024

- H1 equivalent fleet: 234 vs 216

- H1 equivalent operating fleet: 191 vs 177 in H1F25

Less GTF groundings YoY and larger fleet would suggest relief on depreciation cost pressure. However there were a lot of aircraft grounded (and still are) related to the closure of Abu Dhabi. So the overall portion of inactive fleet is similar to H1F25 and I assume the cost pressure is still there.

Deliveries/redeliveries/SLB:

- 11 in Q1, 8 in Q2, 19 total deliveries in H1. Based on their F25 annual report one spare engine SLB in Q1. No reliable data on which AC is financed via operating lease and generating SLB gain and which AC via JOLCO, FTL or similar. I collected all public news related to the topic and have confirmed 7 AC SLBs in Q1 and 2 in Q2. There might be more though without a press release. In Q1 they reported 28 mio SLB gain which I assume is related to 7 AC and one engine SLBs. And my feeling is that they make more money on an engine SLB than on an AC. My guesstimate is 2,5 mio USD gain per AC. Volaris reported 6,6 mio gain on 3 SLBs from the same Indigo order. In F26 in total they plan to have 42 SLBs out of the ~50 deliveries. This will well support either Q2 or Q3-4.

- End of lease: 7 redeliveries in H1 vs 7 in entire F25. And more to come. At lease 3-4 AC is undergoing EoL at the moment. This will be a headwind both for Q2 and Q3-4 putting further pressure on depr/maintenance CASK.

Before Pogo goes mental: this is not an advise, I might be completely wrong. I am using only publicly available data. This is my estimate only and nobody should make any decision based on this! Stock price movement will be more related to the forward guidance and not the actual H1 figures anyway. So do your own research!

Buddy you are the only one here telling others what to do. Nobody else does. Selling at 1020 because it might drop below 950 temporarily. What a f..ng advise. You made a loss when you closed your position a year ago. Get over it and move on.

Take your morning pills and chill.

The aircraft appears time to time on FR24. This also makes me believe that the aircraft is not being on jacks or in zero stress position for heavy structure work but rather waiting for parts with long leadtime. It's just my guess though, I have no hands on info on that .

B777Captain, I also haven't seen any indication that the engines are robbed from that AC so most likely it will be repaired and put back into service as soon as the repair is done. In this case 34 groundings are related to the GTF issue as of today.

Lack of F26 guidance in Q1 was overreacted in my view. This was in the RYR Q1 presentation:

"Too early for meaningful FY26 PAT guide – zero H2 vis. (tougher comps.)"

Wondering what the Barclays analyst going to ask in the call after all these trades.

AK57, no I won't. No worries.

At least AI seems to be optimistic :)

I was just wondering where these figures are coming from:

"Analysts are eyeing €2.5–3 billion in H1 revenue (up ~15% YoY)".

H1F25 revenue was already 3,066 billion. So the 15% growth estimate would mean revenue over 3,5 billion.

My prediction is 3,3 billion.

Also I don't get this:

"Wizz’s stock is hovering around €3–4/share, down 50% from peaks but trading at a forward P/E of ~5x—peanuts for a carrier with €4.5 billion FY25 revenue guidance and a €10 billion backlog."

How can be the F25 revenue guidance be 4,5 billion? We are in F26 and the F25 actual revenue was 5,27 billion.

Anyway, I like the optimism but the figures does not add up for me.

LOL. Lee21,ask him at what price did he sell his shares.

Sounds promising, but the figures does not make sense. Whoever wrote this.

Look for unattended tools as well!

So instead of predicting SP, I am wondering what are the expectations re results versus H1F25? H1F25 operating result was 349,2m and net was 315,2 m. Also wondering what would be your reasoning behind the expectation.

B777Captain, I meant John.

I did also buy though.

He bought last week.