Member Info for YesIam

Trump says the decision on Iran will come in the next 10 days. What a nice start of that board of peace. Looking at the members it is more of a board of shame TBH. On the other hand I don't think any military action will last longer than few days.

Https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202602191258/airbus-warns-of-hit-to-a320-production-from-pratt-whitney-engine-shortage-update

This could be behind the selloff

Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/airbus-says-ready-to-enforce-rights-over-pratt-amp-whitney-engine-dispute-qaft36tcelof4h1.html

The only thing he knows is reading the chart backwards. BTW where is his buddy Pogo?

Thanks guys

Is stamp duty applies on WIZZ shares? Not concerned about this for my long term hold but have a trading account on IBKR where I do some day/swing trading and wondering whether wizz shares are exempt of this tax? So far have not been charged as I see.

Finally

Wondering what the market reaction will be. As I expected already before, F26 seems to be around break even (now their quidance is +/- 25 mEUR) despite better figures in Q3. F26 will be worse than F25 or very similar if we exclude that one time tax credit that supported the F25 final results. For me no surprises at all. There were few analysts expecting F26 results drop to minus 150-200 mEUR. For them this is a positive surprise and might revise their price target. On the other hand who were speculating on some very positive surprise might be disappointed creating some selloff. But what happens with the shorts? The results are not that bad so if they start to close those positions we might end up in an uptrend curve as well. So a big question mark for me. Let's see, GLA.

To operate scheduled flights they're going to need ETOPs. sounds like plan B or plan C in case Iran tensions escalate. That will put the remaining UAE routes on hold for sure and most likely would affect their Israel expansion as well.

I would rather see them trying few UK-US routes through WIZZ UK rather than opening a base in Tel Aviv to be honest.

Nevertheless I think it is for world cup charters only. Who knows, maybe we get some info on this as well in the Q3 call.

It will increase even more if one watching the speech of that clown in Davos.

B777 Captain, hard to tell. Their fleet plan is shown per fiscal and not calendar year and do not contain the plan of GTF groundings, so it is total and not operating fleet. I am also wondering what 20% growth really means. If it is capacity than it also could mean extended lease periods eg. less lease returns, reactivation of the ex-abu dhabi CEOs that are still on ground, maybe faster recovery of GTF groundings (with delivery of additional spare engines- that I was talking about since the H1 report??). I think it will be a mix of the above and I still believe they have overcapacity at the moment which will turn into need for capacity as the new routes getting more mature. We will get some info on this on the 29th.

Is Iran the next one?

Don’t forget in October he said this airline is hardly going to survive 7 months.

Nobody can beat John the legend. He’s the best.

Profit taking?

Stan36, in their reports these items are shown as cost. There are "other expenses" like flight disruption cost , wet lease etc. And there are "other incomes" where they book SLB gains and supplier compensations with negative prefix.

Cost is the main concern. Clearly there is an overcapacity at the moment. They carried 12% more PAX in Q3 YoY but the LF dropped by 0,5% YoY, with the ex-ABU Dhabi CEOs still being parked.( 2 out of 8 have been reactivated somewhere in December)

The H2 guidance was :

- ASK up 10%. So far in Q3 it is up around 8,5%

- LF: up mid single digits. In Q3 it is down 0,5%. For me this shows some immaturity of new routes.

- RASK: low single digits down

- CASK: up low single digits.

Based on these inputs Q3 results will be below Q3 2025 and I expect pullback before the report. This is without any one time accounting/TAX events that we can't calculate for.

- 46 new deliveries are planned for F26. So far 35 delivered so this seems to be on track. In H2 total 27 are planned vs 11 in H2 F25. Together with the 16 planned spare engine SLBs and the 3 sold aircraft the total SLB gain must be well above H2F25 however this should already be part of their CASK guidance in my view.

- 18 redeliveries are also planned for F26. So far 8 are done, 3-4 in progress. For me this seems to be a bit behind schedule, so some cost might going to be pushed over to F27 easing the pressure on maintenance CASK.

- Dont't see too much movement regarding the GTF

One time events, better than expected RASK, higher than expected SLB gain can change the picture for sure but I remain cautious re Q3 and F26 in total.

Coincidence that Venezuela is a big oil producer?This ain’t about drugs.

Wondering if they gonna do something with Iran as well.

Stille, fortunately not that close. I live in the EU but in the eastern part of it. So obviously I do care what kind of peace deal they are going to come up with (if any) contrary to what James is saying.