Member Info for YesIam

James,you question the morality of other shareholders re Ukraine. While you own the same wizz share. No, I wish Russia is being kicked out of Ukraine, and believe me I am sitting closer to that conflict than you do.

How likely is that? Not really, since Europe is lead by a bunch of muppets who are only going to Washington to please that moron who needs only compliments and a Nobel prize. His main negotiators are his son in law and a real estate developer. Do you think this is leading to a peace deal that puts back Russia in its place and makes Ukraine the clear winner? Wake up buddy. I understand you are interested in a long lasting war so your BAE shares going further up so you win in either case. Hats off to you, great hedging. But that’s why you are the biggest hypocrite here.

Tell you what, if you have that high moral standards as you pretend you should avoid financial markets in any case.

Wish you a happy new year.

RYR was between 11-15 10 years ago. That's 9-10% YoY gain. Not bad for a 10 consecutive years. Congrats for that.

Trolling everyone at current price levels who sees similar or even bigger potential in WIZZ in a few years time... Hypocrisy. You are #2 though, James took the crown for 2025.

Still not too late to move your RYR gains over to WIZZ. ;)

Happy new year to everyone!

Who in this forum is cheering for a peace deal that is bad for Ukraine? I am pretty sure nobody. Or maybe those very few sympathizes with russia. If there is a peace deal (either by Putins terms or by UKR/EU/NATO terms) share price will go up. Yours as well. If there is a peace deal, plus improving financial results/GTF etc share price will go up even more. So how will you split your gain between morally justifiable and not? You call people delusional and self serving creeps just because discussing the news on peace talks. But who do you mean exactly? Nobody with clear mind sitting in Europe wants something that is bad for ukraine and for europe. WTF are you talking about?

You own WIZZ shares as well but guess if SP is up due to a pace deal that is bad for Ukraine, you will simply dump your shares and donate your gains to the local dog shelter just to be able to look in the mirror. Also the 50% YTD gain of your BA.L shares has nothing to do with the war, right? Buddy you put hypocrisy on a next level. And there are some big players in this forum.

B777Captain,

These questions are hard to answer based on the reports. The best source would be someone involved in leasing business and financing new aircraft. H1 report says:

“ A commitment to purchase 281 Airbus aircraft of the A320 family in the period 2025–2030. The total commitment is valued at US$43.3 billion (€36.8 billion) based on list prices last published in 2018 and escalated annually until the reporting date based on contract terms (31 March 2025: US$46.2 billion (€42.6 billion) to purchase 300 Airbus aircraft of the A320 family in the period 2025–2030).”

If I get it well the list price value went up from 43,3 bUSD to 46,2 in 7 years. The formula it is based on must be a combination of EUR cpi, commodities and other parameters.

So if WIzz is taking over an aircraft now that had a list price of 130 mio USD and a contracted price of let’s say 70 in 2018 they would pay 7%. higher now. Let’s say 75 mio. How then it turns into sale priced to the lessor and then a lease rate I don’t know. My assumption is that it is agreed on a case by case basis with lessors.Wizz reports the slb gain but the problem is that we don’t know it on a tail sign basis since they have a lot of transactions together with engine slb’s during a reporting period.My estimate would be that lessor pays 2-3 mio more than Wizz paid. Volaris reported something around 2,5 million gain for a 320 neo SLB

B777Captain, to be honest I don’t think Wizz is paying the contracted price during delivery but they are paying a price that is escalated on a yearly basis between the contract signature and the actual delivery. In their reports it is described under capital commitments section. They get of course a huge volume discount for the number they ordered but I doubt the lessors are paying the actual list price during an SLB transaction. Not really an expert of this but my gut feeling is that the higher the list price escalation yoy are the higher the financing gets. But I am sure it is way more complex formula how they can secure financing via lessors/banks and what is the estimated residual value at the end of lease period which would be the basis for capitalisation and the depreciation cost. Since Wizz is returning around 12 years it still must be a reasonable amount and driven by market needs for these 321s which is high at the moment. TBH I don’t think commodity price will play much role in this as these aircraft are far from dismantling. Don’t know how RYR is calculating the residual value for their owned fleet and whether those are being scrapped or not but it most probably explained in their annual report. Enjoy the holidays!

B777Captain, no. There many of us positive like you. I just don't see a sharp increase with no more pullback without a real catalyst. Until that the fluctuation let's say between 10 ish and 13-15 would be normal I would say. But as you said there are many things that can positively affect the results and we might see a surprise rally at the F26 report. That's why I am really looking forward to the december traffic data, the Q3 results and the news on the additional spare engines that WIZZ about to get from P&W as part of the new deal.

Until that I would use any drop for averaging down with or without a swing trade. My approach is quite similar to D9Ber1's. Got in a bit too early above 2000 and managed to average down to 13ish . I am happy that the year end SP is where I was expecting it and not where all those fearmongers said it gonna be.

Marry Christmas for everyone!

I do think we will see prices below 12 or even 11 in the upcoming months, unless there is some huge development in the peace talks which I do not expect TBH. If the Ukraine situation remains as it is for the next 6-12 months we will see a real breakout only if wizz starts to show promising figures with their current realigned network. At Q3 report I personally do not expect any major surprise however based on that report we might get a feeling whether any positive or negative surprise to be expected by F26 year end. If not, from Q127 we shall see some development as the new routes will be operating by then and the grounded fleet should be in the range of 25 aircraft in total. Varadi always claims the CEE is their bread and butter and they see endless opportunities in this area together with UK and Italy. So let's see if this is really the case. Until that I expect opportunities to further average down or getting back below 1200.

That 1280 is very hard to break

Kpa what is your average price?

Actually another delivery today out of Tianjin. So 5 this week, 3 today.

Thanks Lucas. BTW Airbus is really pushing for the year end deliveries although they reported less than planned deliveries in December.

This week WIZZ took delivery of 2 aircraft (after few days delay though) and they plan to take 2 more today. Also very intense test flight program is ongoing at all 3 destinations.

Lucas, do you already know the tail sign of the next? I guess that's the one which will get the engines from 9H-XLC?

Let me rephrase: This went up 25% in matter of days. Without any major news. That 1800 can be closer than it seems right now.

Lucas88, This went up 25% in matter of days. That 1800 can be closer than it seems right now.

James can you elaborate?

B777Captain, well if we continue like this even your prediction becomes pessimistic. Wondering what is the driver now. Peace talks maybe?

And how many are going to sell now as being up 20-25% since November. Well played by those who got in around 1000 for a swing trade. I did buy a lot at those levels and maybe selling some for a quick pocket money but the majority of my holding will stay longer term for sure.

Pogo is the best indicator, simple as that :D When he starts his rampage that is a strong buy moment. LOL

Great, thanks Lucas88

Lucas88, thanks, appreciate that. Just that I get it right, are they going to park the 3rd Maltese XLR (9H-XLC) as well for it's engines or G-XLRA to be used as as donor aircraft?

I have another question. Do you see any movement of the ex Abu Dhabi CEO-s? 4 of the 8 had been re-registered into EASA and seems to be parked in KTW/LCA. Is there a technical reason for that or they simply does not need the capacity? Normal re-registration would not take so long.

Thanks.

I am sure algos are tracking Pogo. Whenever he goes mental SP is going up within days.