Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

It is described as "5.41% Net LONG exposure"

OC

The regulation is that when a company investment exceeds a 3% LONG position, it is disclosed. That is what Barclays did. IMO nobody is being mislead. Barclays have a long position on Wizz of 5.4%.

Barclays current view on Wizz:

"In a report released today, Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays maintained a Buy rating on Wizz Air Holdings, with a price target of £14.00"

OTCD

Fair enough. I understand that. But they're also exposed to the movement of 5.4%. Synthetic would mean that somebody else (a CFD provider etc) own the share on behalf of Barclays. Not that Barclays own the share and loan it to Hedge funds or loan it for shorting.

My understanding is that Barclays are exposed long to 5.4% of Wizz Air's stock.

OTCD

I would be the first to admit that I don't understand modern trading instruments. What is stated is that Barclays have voting rights in 5.4% of Wizz Air stock and are directly exposed to that stock's movement.

John

There are a number of reasons why the price has declined significantly recently:

1. Costs associated with groundings exceed expectations.

2. Groundings time extended.

3. Debt Downgrades, Fitch + Moody's.

Then

4.RBC Capital pulling the plug on a large portion of their holdings.

5. Multiple institutions following RBC.

6. Retail investors forced out.

Recently:

7. Lower yield expectations from the summer than anticipated.

Nothing existential. I don't know where the bottom is. I have considered your advice. I have decided to keep on averaging in because I believe that Wizz have a great business model. They'll still be around in 20 years time. The share price is likely to go up 5-10× in the next 5 years or so. I don't believe that there's a better mid to long term investment (certainly that I know).

You guys no my view on this. Wizz is always a mid term hold and never short term.

I presume they mean that operating income may go negative because with 50 deliveries of A321-NEO's, the Sale/Leaseback must be enormous.

The D&A being a drag will not have an effect on our cash flow, so our cash position and financial debt position will continue to improve.

The D&A doesn't make a lot of sense. You're deprecating Aircraft that are stored correctly to 0 over a period of years. Assuming that there's agreement with the leasing companies, this is stored value which will be returned to the Airline at a later point.

If Alex Irving, Bernstein, forecast of H1 net profit of €300m is accurate then £15 by Christmas.

I need an ad blocker that doesn't stop me from me from using this website.

My phones gone mad this morning...grr

Anyway, chatgpt's answer to a rapid purchase of 8% of stock combined with closure of shorts. Starting Share price £11.45.

Scenario Estimated Share Price

Conservative £13.50–£15.50

Likely (shorts + takeover buying) £17–£21

Extreme squeeze £22–£25

So, £17–£21 is the most realistic band for a combined 6.2% short-cover and 8% acquisition-driven buy — unless the takeover rumour becomes confirmed, in which case it could momentarily exceed £25.

I just asked chatgpt what the share price of Wizz would be in the same scenario that EZJ faced. With a predator purchase of 8% of stock and

I just asked chatgpt what the share price of Wizz would be in the same scenario t

Stille

Looks like some news regarding the possibility of EZJ being taken over. Good luck, hopefully you'll get a nice offer for your shares.

Stan

Barclays recently increased their percentage holdings to 5.3% of the company. Why do shorts know something that Barclays doesn't?

£15.28

Stan

According to Tipranks, there are 20 analysts covering Wizz, 6 buys, 3 sells, 11 holds- average price target of £1528.

Why do we attach so much importance to the sells/shorts?

It's for me, I don't know the answer. It just sticks in my mind what MOL said of shorts at an earnings call that I listened to, many years ago.

Stan

Thanks a lot. My view is simply based on what I've read from the Barclays Analyst, Lobbenberg. He seems to quote 5.8 as the PE he looks at given the current issues. I wasn't trying to give any precision to that post, just that when the share price goes below 6, even, as you say, to the intra day low of £9.70 (5.2), it has bounced.

I have no doubt that from an analytical point of view, you're way ahead of me. I usually just stick to the fundamentals.

I also would say that I don't believe in the shorts as being a good indication of where the share price is going. I think that there are reasons that institutions short Airlines. MOL Has commented on shorts on Ryanair in the distant past, only to say that he loves them, they're the people that have to buy his stock.

OTCDS

My optimistic view is that the share price will not go much below a trailing PE of 6. That would be just above £11. It has been below that before but bounced very strongly.

Https://youtube.com/shorts/2tUiV_9fUhs?si=jkSI-Z4XsDcWvuCw

Had to throw that in. Standard Ryanair Landing. How to respect your customers.

Excellent homework there Stan. Thanks. Several other great reasons to invest.