Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

From what I understand, a price to sales ratio of 0.25 is extraordinarily cheap. Even if there's no profit.

Elaboration requested from anyone who knows the metrics when looking at loss making companies?

Not saying that Wizz Air is loss making.

"I dont necessarily see Wizz as undervalued currently. The costs are high and profits low. But given the relative certainty costs will reduce as the engine troubles are resolved, the new more efficient planes arrive, focus on Eastern Europe routes... increasing NATO supporting Ukraine. I see it as just a matter of time until the huge revenue growth Wizz have made becomes huge profit growth. So do you buy now at these prices with all the potential ahead, or later (at a higher price) when all the problems have passed?"

Thanks Madmat. 100% agree with that paragraph. Though you say that it's not undervalued and then you outline exactly the reasons that it is undervalued.

Robbren

I have been a Wizz investor for 3.5 years (I came in after the War in Ukraine started). It was too expensive for me before that.

I'm averaging in simply because I can't see a better investment at the moment. Wizz Air is extremely cheap and will recover from it's current issues.

Taut

"Captain of you was long term and so sure about your investment you would not be sitting here everyday."

I am very sure that there are very few other investments currently with the same potential to generate significant returns.

I acknowledge that I'm a sad old man sitting on this forum every day. That's no reflection of my confidence in the stock.

I think that the shortage of aircraft in the world is set to become even more acute over the next few years, as strong travel demand outpaces production capacity and delivery delays continue.

John

The reason I stick with this share is that I have a reasonable understanding of what Varadi is doing and I think that the Mid to long term chances of success are high.

The only view you can have in the Airline industry is a long term one because everything takes so long to happen. Riyadh started making plans for an Airline in 2020, that Airline, Ritadh Air, should start operations this month (they still don't have any of the 787's they ordered from Boeing yet).

If it wasn't in the Aviation industry, I wouldn't have a clue what was going on. I've been there before.

OTCD

"B77, They are responding to the dire state of management...I agree with Damiansashas comments that analysts are full of sh%t (in the main) and they just follow the share price movement and adjust accordingly, however your blind faith in the CEO/board is delusional, for any real share-price movement you need a board overhaul or movement in Ukraine. Holding this share for any period of time is a great way to lose money."

Delusional. That's definitely Trolling.

OK. I have been a regular Pilot for the last 36 years, nothing special, never in management, never even in training. But I did work closely with two top CEO's of the last 30 years. Neil Burroughs at Virgin Express and Phillip Meeson at Jet2. These two guys were incredibly smart, hard working and ruthlessly determined to make their businesses work. Unfortunately for Neil at Virgin Express, he couldn't make it successful. Phillip Meeson has been very successful with Jet2. But I would argue that Varadi has been more successful with Wizz until the recent black Swan events. To have got Wizz where he did was phenomenal. If Wizz lose him then I'll really be afraid for their future.

I know that the decisions regarding hedging have put his management into question especially by the analysts. But hedging is expensive and it works both ways. A private business doesn't need to hedge because it doesn't need to worry about the volatility of it's share price. I think the need to hedge was something new to Varadi.

For you to say that Varadi is not a good CEO would be like me saying that Kenny Dalglish was not a good football player. We both have a right to our opinions even if they're ridiculous.

John

I hope that you slept well.

"Now B777 you asked me yesterday to give you my thought on what was the bottom number for this share. Well I will go along with citi and say 770. This week the FT, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have touched record highs. Wizz lost 5%. Any savvy investor would have their money elsewhere until this company demonstrates it has a future. This could be two years hence so it is a no brainier to keep the powder dry."

Every month, I get a salary and I look at my investment options. I see a lot of very over priced stocks, I see Gold and Silver, I see crypto. Then I see Wizz. Nothing has changed in the last couple of years. I see more potential over the next 5 years in Wizz than in anything else (I have been buying some Silver ETF).

As you say, Wizz could go down another 30%. But I'm expecting Wizz to go up 1000% in the next 7 years. So that view doesn't change anything for me.

As for the timing of a potential rise, I can't do it. My view is that the first move up will be the most precipitous and not to be missed.

We have discussed the upcoming earnings report on November 13th. I think the consensus is that Operational profit is likely to be between €200m and €320m. Supposing it comes in above €300m. Agreed that will still be below H1 of 25 but nonetheless it's possible that investors will see through that. With the worst of the groundings done and the knowledge that the next H1 report and the one after that will show continued growth, the share price might just turn the corner. And like I said, that first spike of optimism will give a precipitous rise.

Citi are simply responding to MOL's comments.

Rule no.1- Never listen to the comments of a competitor with an agenda.

Thanks Stan

That's what I thought, my calculations are incorrect because I'm using the previous full year, rather than the rolling last 4 quarters.

Stan

Give me a lesson on calculating PE

I'm doing:

Market Cap in Euro's: 1.318B

÷

F25 Net Profit in Euro's: 213m

= 6.18

Stan

"The trailing P/E will fall further if earnings in Q2-25 exceed those in Q2-26, assuming the share price is unchanged. The fact it's 5.25 may be in anticipation of weaker Q2 results."

The only results that I see are for H1 2025, they gave us an operating profit of €349m. As for H1 2026, unfortunately, that level probably won't be achieved, the highest calculated estimate that I've heard is €311m (By Bernstein, Yeslam did a good job of his own calculations and also comes in at around that number).

What I think is that there is so much negativity baked in that any above consensus operating profit will drive the share price upward.

It'll take a year over year increase in operating profit to really turn the corner.

Garydav

I am averaging down. Slowly but surely. A little every month.

Stan

If I could call it right, my average price wouldn't be just under £19.

Anything that I write on here comes with the disclaimer- "It's just what I think at that moment". I do however try to keep myself informed and I do have 36 years in the industry.

Taut

This is the point:

Europe (Mostly Eastern Europe) still has a lot of routes available (no current service) that can be matured to profitability.

The restraining factor is insufficient Aeroplanes.

There is no shortage of routes or passengers. Not saturated, not even nearly!!!!

Taut

Ryanair don't have sufficient Aircraft.

If they did, they'd just put an Aircraft on every route in Europe and bankrupt all European Airlines.

Ryanair will struggle to grow over the next 10 years for reasons that I've explained before.

Wizz will not go out of business because of Ryanair!!!

Lucas, can you answer this? Please.

Also on solving P&W issue by 2027, solving at the moment means getting enough spare engines for which higher costs will come and not repairing and returning engines.

Are the engines affected by the metal powder issue being fixed and returned to line currently? Or are all Aircraft which have been returned to line simply had new engines attached?

Thanks Taut

Whats the logical reason for delaying aircraft deliveries?

This is in the future after sorting P&W issue and if european market not saturated with flights. What would be the reason?

I'll take the second question first and I'll make it Worldwide because I'm more familiar with the numbers. So there are 29,000 commercial Aircraft currently flying. Passenger numbers are growing at 8% per year. So to provide sufficient Aircraft to meet demand, you need an additional 2,320 Aircraft per year. In addition to that you need 1,100 Aircraft to replace Aircraft retirements. Therefore, there's demand for 3,400 new Aircraft per year Worldwide. Airbus currently produces around 850 Aircraft per year and Boeing produce around 600 per year. Total 1450 produced by the major manufacturers. So you can clearly see the shortfall. On top of this, Airliners which are less than 10 years old are significantly more efficient, therefore these are the Aircraft that low cost Airlines need. Pro rata these figures are similar for Europe.

Secondly, why delay deliveries? Passenger growth is something that is developed by the Airlines. You start a new route for example Krakow to Malaga, it takes time for people to take advantage of that route for leisure or business travel therefore there is a period where you're operating an Aircraft at a loss until that route is sufficiently mature to be profitable.

Wizz management have made a decision that profitability is now urgent (that being in 3 years time), because they need their investment grade Debt rating back. In order to be sufficiently profitable they need :

1. GTF issue resolved

2. CEO Powered Aircraft retired

3. 3 years (2028-2030) of operating only already matured routes.

When investment grade Debt is back, the following 100+ Aircraft will be bought by Wizz Air (with debt), rather than sale/Leaseback.

Getting the Debt rating back is going to take priority over rapid growth.

Robbren.

Thanks but I don't care. It's a mix on here of everything from foolish posts to very intelligent posts. I'll read all of them.

Where do you see the share price bottom, John?