Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Robbren

I think that nobody is confident to buy before the results. Even I'm buying my next tranch on 13th November. If it takes a dip then, I'll get them a bit cheaper, otherwise I'll buy on the up.

There could be some reprieve next week if Ryanair numbers are good and load factors come in nicely.

I'm not negative, I'm extremely positive but we have to wait until we get to the point where people want to buy again. That'll be on news, not in a vacuum as OTCD rightly said.

Thanks

So a current available to operate fleet of 211?

Yeslam

Do you know how many aircraft are currently grounded due to the GTF issue? I have numbers from 35-38.

Thanks...

Taut

You've seen my posts enough to know that I'm more of an overview person with a reasonable understanding of the industry.

For the analysis you need to ask Yeslam. His posts on these thing are excellent.

My view is that I don't know when things will turn positive but I'm very sure that they will. And the first moves will be precipitously higher, such that if you're out you'll miss them.

John

I'm not expecting to suck in any investors. And I think that this will be a good investment in 3 years time. In 7 years time, I think that it'll be an excellent investment. That is simply my own opinion.

When you invest anything in the stock market, your minimum time line is 5 years. Otherwise you'll be one of the 95% of traders who lose money.

I strongly believe that if you put £50 in Wizz now against putting £50 almost anywhere else (even go out of Wizz and back in, in 2 years) your £50 in Wizz will do much better in 5 years.

Stan

"777 I'd be interested to see your figures on Poland being 50m Wizz passengers in 10 years.

I found total Poland passengers in 2024 was 59.5m

And a 2021 figure of LOT 25% Ryanair 25% Wizz 16%

Any more data you found?"

Stan I was more speculating based on what Donald Tusk said. He said that Polands GDP/Capita would be the same as the UK in 2029. That would give the Polish discretionary cash to spend on travel. The UK has 300m Air travellers every year. Therefore with half the population, it's theoretically possible, Poland will have 150m Air travellers per year.

Looking at Aircraft orders and retirements, LOT'S growth will be a long way short of demand. Wizz will grow at least as fast as Ryanair, so if we split that 100m additional passengers between Ryanair and Wizz, Wizz will have 50m per year out of Poland.

Taut

That's a difficult question to answer because assuming:

1. Powdered metal issue resolved by 2028

2. CEO Powered Aircraft retired by 2028.

3. 300 A321-NEO'S on Mature routes by 2028

Then Wizz will be very profitable.

I was looking at the Polish market today with it's potential growth, Wizz could have 50m passengers per year in 10 years time, just from Poland.

Even a short term loss due to the current restructuring to create a more profitable future is not particularly negative.

The worst analyst forecast sees a 30% share price decline over the next year but compare that to a potential 1000% gain in the next 7 years, it's a drop in the Ocean.

The only thing thing that could really make me negative is another black Swan event.

Boeing's Commercial Aviation Division has only had 4 profitable quarters in the last 10 years.

John

I know. In this world 2+2 doesn't equal 4. You have massive debt and massive losses- you're more likely to stay in business than a cash rich, profitable East European Airline.

It's called "too big to fail". I've got it.

While you're there John, can you check on Riyadh Air's B787's, did they manage to get hold of any seats for them yet, or still supply chain constraints?

John

There's more chance that Boeing will go out of business than Wizz. Then what will Ryanair do?

You could be right Taut. When costs are clearly falling.

Robbren

We don't know where the turning point is so don't expect it otherwise you'll cause yourself stress when it doesn't come at that particular moment.

A 300 Aircraft Airline is either worth £5B+ or it's bankrupt. Wizz is not going bankrupt. It's currently profitable. It has €2B cash.

If it loses money this year that is only because it spent a lot of money to make the coming years much better.

Everything is positive but be ready for a further short term dip. Don't trade with leverage.

The good times are ahead but we need to be patient.

I don't mean majority shareholding. I mean that he controls the interests of the largest shareholding in the company.

Taut

Bill Franke is Wizz Air Chairman, he controls the majority shareholding. In the end it'll be he who decides if Varadi is to be replaced. Until now, everything he says suggests that he believes very strongly in Varadi.

Garydav

The negativity seemed to start when Deutsche bank reduced their estimate for H1 profit due to estimated lower yields than expected. That means that they have access to some good data regarding routes and ticket prices, open source information presumably.

I also think that grounded Aircraft have been slower coming back to line than expected.

According to my new best friend (Chatgpt), there was no significant insider buying at IAG prior to their recent rise. I'm not sure how much it means?

Taut

Chatgpt says that the transactions that we have seen are "mildly positive".

Taut

That's a good point but you don't see insiders selling either. And stock options normally form part of management bonuses in any case.

To everyone

If we see a positive response to the H1 earnings report- is the bottom in?