Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

I forgot. He also said "No visibility, so no guidance for F26". That of course went down like a lead balloon.

GaryDav

This year, 2025 has been a tale to tell when it comes to Wizz Air's share price.

1. 2 profits warnings end of H125 and then Q325

2. F25 collapse in profits 61% (around that)

3. Ex fuel CASK up 19% when Varadi guided a fall.. June 4th

4. Angry RBC Capital sold significantly at open on June 4th. Share price dropped 400 points that day.

5. In the days after June 4th other institutional investors bailed out.

6. Moody's and Fitch downgraded Wizz debt rating to junk

7. Q126 Fall in operating profit from previous year. Share price collapsed to low of the year 9.70. July 24th

8. Deutsche Bank put out a statement reducing F26 estimated profit on lower yields than expected. September.

9. Morgan Stanley issue a statement suggesting possible net loss for F26 and in the same month Citi issue target price of £7.70. October.

You couldn't make it up really but things will get better.

All from an old man's memory guys, so apologies for errors and lack of detail.

Pogo

You're back where you were 2 months ago, making your childish comments. Then Wizz will turn again and you'll disappear again.

Please Pogo. Limit your posts to Ryanair and the Polish economy. Those posts make for an interesting read.

John

I've posted on this already today. Even if Ryanair receive all of their deliveries on time from now, the growth will be extremely slow because of the rate of retirements.

Boeing never deliver on time. Even at the last minute. My company was supposed to receive 4×Boeing 777F's this month, now they've delayed to the new year. This on top of waiting, what will probably be 8 years for our B777-9's.

If Ryanair receive their Aircraft on time, that's great for Ryanair but they won't have spare capacity to significantly expand into Eastern Europe.

Taut

Wizz will not go bankrupt. Even through these issues, the last 2 years, Wizz has been profitable. Why when we can see the light at the end of the tunnel would Wizz go bankrupt.

Wizz will have a monopoly on the East European Airline Industry. Other companies that you may be looking at will never have a monopoly within their industry.

Don't start Trolling again Pogo. There are 2 sides to you. The Troll and the intelligent poster. Leave the Troll out.

Taut

Stick with Wizz. 7 years down the road, you'll be so pleased that you did. That AI bubble will burst. The whole US stock market will have a huge correction at some point. And at some point Wizz will recover.

Robbren

We're having a great discussion.

Taut

What you said there is true but if Bernstein (Alex Irving)gets it right, the market will see through the lower operating profit this year. And push the share price up to £30 in response to expectations for next year.

Not my opinion. I'm more Lobbenberg.

Taut

Yes. Maybe you're right. High single digits. I was forgetting CEO retirements.

Ryanair will retire 15 Aircraft during C26. No planned deliveries until spring 2027. Fleet= -2.5%

And I'm not spinning anything. I'm saying what I understand to be accurate based on my knowledge of the industry.

Ryan

Taut

OK. Yes deliveries delayed.

But for C26 Wizz Air's operational fleet will grow by 20%-25%. Ryanair's fleet will shrink by 2.5%.

Taut

Well delaying deliveries is the reality faced as Wizz get their credit rating back to investment grade.

As for Engines. Wizz got unlucky with the P&W GTF's. Ryanair, so far, have been luckier with the Leap1B engines.

Taut

Ryanair are not going out of business. They are not deliberately postponing Aircraft. Deliveries have been delayed due to supply chain constraints. Now Ryanairs deliveries will run into the retirements of it's B737-800's. This means that expansion outside of the core West European market will be either very constrained or completely stopped.

Who is talking about Wizz going out of business???

Don't give me the name of a competitor with an Agenda please.

GaryDav

I don't think that all financial debt disappears in January. I think Varadi said the end of C26.

But that €5b, you need to divide it in two parts, the Aircraft leases (counts as debt) and other debt (financial). It's the financial debt that will shortly be gone (from what I understand).

Taut

Thanks

Boeing finally have delivered 25 new B737-Max8-200's. This month. Giving them a small window of growth into Eastern Europe. Don't let this confuse you with the long term. No new Jets for RYR next year. Then after that we'll see but they need them for their current West European markets.

I understand your point and appreciate it. But the mid- long term numbers don't add up for Ryanair.

The 25 Aircraft this month was a one off because of pressure from Congress after Ryanair threatened to buy Chinese.

Taut

Thanks for your reply.

I disagree though. There is no real indigenous competition in Eastern Europe for Wizz (Forget LOT). The only possible competition is Ryanair and Ryanair can't do it. Just revisit the numbers:

Ryanair's real business is Western Europe. Western Europe's Airline industry is still growing at roughly 3% per year. That means Ryanair need 15 new Aircraft per year for that market.

As I said before:

Retirements are 15 Aircraft per year to 2030.

That means for West Europe they need 30 new Aircraft per year. They received about 30 this year. But they won't receive anything in 2026. Thereafter it should be about 30 per year for the next 10 years (If Boeing deliver, which they never do).

Summary:

30 Aircraft for West Europe required per year- 30 new Aircraft per year delivered.

No new Aircraft available for East Europe

It gets worse for Ryanair after 2030 because Retirements will double to 30 a year.

Ryanair don't have Aircraft for Eastern Europe.

Pogo

I won't talk about Ryanair. I've said enough on that. You and Taut don't seem to accept that Ryanair has it's own fleet difficulties. Wizz being Airbus rather than Boeing have a significant advantage.

Regarding Polands economy, it's current debt/gdp is around 60%, that is significantly lower than most West European countries and will allow for monetary expansion. Expanding money supply even to grow the military will find it's way into people's pockets giving greater discretionary spending. People will travel.

Of course Poland is far from the only market for Wizz to develop but given the low Base Poland is currently starting from, it's very important.

Taut

Just do me one favour. Explain to me where Ryanair will get the Aircraft from to completely dominate Eastern Europe and exclude Wizz from the market????

They'll be retiring 30 × B737-800's per year from 2030. They're retiring 15 per year from now until 2030. Boeing will not deliver anything more until 2027, then only if the B737-Max10 is certified.

Ryanair only have 150 firm orders.

Tell me, please..

Pogo

No hate! As long as you post a well thought out post of you own opinion, why should there be hate. I love listening to arguments on the opposite side, as long as they're not simply technical or outright trolling.

Obviously I don't agree because from my position I see passenger numbers rising significantly every year. And I understand the difficulty my company and many others are having in obtaining sufficient numbers of new Aircraft to deal with the demand.

As I said in a recent post, Poland's passenger numbers could easily triple in the next 10 years (nearly anyway) and only Wizz will have sufficient new Aircraft to deal with that demand. Ryanair will to an extent, but that is to be seen because they're totally relying on Boeing.

Robbren

My real opinion, short term, and as you know I'm not a short term player; is that there is so much negativity baked in currently that a relatively neutral set of H1 results will drive the share price higher (relief rally).

I think that we'll be significantly higher by Christmas, let's say, top of the current range- £14.