Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Jk1983

That's Yeslam's field. He's totally on top of that. If I say something there, he'll come back, rightly, and correct me.

JK1983

My view is that everything is going extremely well for Wizz. I will not be concerned if Wizz lose €50m this year. They're spending that money to turn the company around make it by far the best growth Airline in Europe. They have well over €2B in cash right now.

Ryanair: If Boeing deliver everything on time (which would be a first and is very unlikely), Ryanair will have 44% growth in 9 years time. Another IF is their old B737-800's, they need to keep them going (expensive and not certain due to normal corrosion). Effectively a stagnating Airline.

MOL also said that the legacy carriers mergers will result in them reducing shorthaul capacity. That gives even more room in the market for Wizz.

The future for Wizz is very bright and this will be a great long term investment for anyone.

Short term- £14 by Christmas

GaryDav

It's a good article. It feeds into the point that there aren't unlimited Aircraft these days and Airlines have a choice of markets. Governments are being pressured to stop increasing taxes. Ryanair significantly reduced capacity in Spain and are now ramping up rapidly in Morocco. They reduced capacity in Germany and are ramping up in Sweden. The point being there are more markets than Aircraft, so countries need to compete to be served. Peripheral countries like Sweden, UK & Ireland, Portugal, all East Europe, Southern Italy, Greece etc all need a good Airline operation for their economies to be competitive.

So I've spent all this time discussing something with someone whose final conclusion is that I'm a shamen🙄 .

Pogo

All you've done there by looking at IAG and RYR over the last 10 years is to demonstrate the massive potential of Wizz. Wizz without ridiculous black Swan events.

Pogo

Your writing in English is perfect considering it's your second language. No need to correct yourself.

It's what you write, not how you write it that's the problem sometimes.

Pogo

You see. You can write some very clever posts. Why do you write the annoying posts?

I think that the answer to your questions is:

IAG were subjected to only one black Swan event.

Wizz have been subjected to:

-Covid

-Ukraine which effected Wizz to an extremely outsized proportion compared to almost any other business.

-GTF Powdered metal which effected Wizz to an extremely outsized proportion compared to almost any other business.

- Israel Which effected Wizz to an extremely outsized proportion compared to almost any other business.

Despite these events Wizz has been profitable for the last 2 years. It may dip into loss territory now in order to completely recover the business.

In my opinion, if there are no more black Swan events recovery is inevitable and there are very many investors waiting to jump on the bandwagon of a recovering Wizz Air. Everyone knows about it's potential.

Jayne

It seems to me that something different comes into play every time we get the results whether it's: Tax, FX, Fuel Prices, Depreciation, Hot &Harsh, compensation, SLB etc, who knows.

It doesn't matter. The company is better positioned now than it was 18 months ago when the share price was £25.

The clear difference is the credit rating. That will come back when the issues we have are resolved. That'll be over the next 2-3 years.

Coming back to what you said, making a projection from the F25 results to the H126 results is difficult. If you mean a comparison? the problem with that is, it's not like for like, we've spent money to improve future profits since June 4th (F25 Results). So our CASK will be high. That'll be an initial disappointment to investors. But then after selling they'll see- great cash flow- then the buying will start again.

Back to square one- Christmas it'll be £14.

Pogo

There was a time when IAG's "current share price" was 90p and not £4.13.

DBER

I make so many mistakes, I've stopped caring.

Jayne

So they paid too much tax on their profit and received a rebate. If they hadn't paid the tax in the first place and it had just been considered profit?

They made €213m that was the net profit. I understand the importance the institutional investors put on operating profit. But let's get through the GTF issue then we'll think about improving operational profit.

GaryDav

I'm a long term investor. The Abu Dhabi costs will be a hit in the short term.

The share price will still go up though from here after nerves are settled (post 13th November). As I said, in my opinion, there are a lot of people who are trying to get into Wizz at the right time.

GaryDav

Effectively the depreciation cost of the 40+ Grounded Aircraft had to be covered by the 180 operating aircraft. This cost the company €400m in profit (that's my understanding from what Varadi said in the conference call of the same date). The company profit was €213m. If the Aircraft hadn't been grounded it would have been €613m. This equates to a share price of over £40.

GaryDav

As for the other point- Lease vs Buy. Yeslam has done some excellent posts which are well calculated. I think that you should look through his posts because I can't compete with his analytical work.

GaryDav

I'll come back to you but for now look at the below link. Go to depreciation explained then depreciation cost.

Then tell me what you think.

https://www.wizzair.com/cms/api/docs/default-source/downloadable-documents/corporate-website-transfer-documents/results-and-presentations/f25-full-year-results_vf_411bda64-e434-4f54-84c0-3eb12f81d412.pdf

Even if Wizz is going to lose €60m, what difference does it make. This is a year where we've created so much profitability for the future:

1. Summer 25 there were still 40+ Aircraft grounded. Summer 26- much fewer.

2. Abu Dhabi closed.

3. Entered 50 new A321-NEO's into service.

4. Retired 20 expensive CEO powered Aircraft.

We'll have possibly €2.4B in cash, and we're worried about €60m loss to turn the company around?

By June they'll be talking about the amazing forward PE rather than the non existent trailing PE.

Gentlemen , this is a fantastic investment but patience is required.

GaryDav

I think Base SP rating most likely .

"Cant see Bull unless Varadi pulls a rabbit out of the hat which is unlikely.

Will stick with my 1165 at best"

The negativity setting in now is effecting all traders. Everyone is scared to buy Wizz before the earnings report. That's why it's drifting lower and lower. But everyone wants to own Wizz at some point. The whole world knows that it's current issues will come to an end and there will be the mother of all bounces.

What's going to happen is, as often happens with Wizz after earnings, there'll be initial gloom. Profits not very good. The share price will sink even further. Then someone will come out and say "their cash flow is great" (Depreciation, the cause of the falling profits has no effect on cash flow, as I understand)and all those people who really want to own Wizz will jump back on. Christmas £14+.

OTCD

Explain to me confidence in the board? The majority shareholding is Indigo (Partners or Hungary) along with a small number of institutional investors who hold relatively large stakes. Bill Franke controls Indigo (he's the chairman of the board). I assume the other large investors have their own board members.

Bill Franke has backed Varadi for 17 years, he won't lose confidence in Varadi.

I don't get it? it's almost saying that the board will lose confidence with the board.

Don't take me in the wrong way here, I know that I'm missing something, I really don't understand.

OTCD

If you're going to tell me that I have no knowledge of finance and technical analysis then I totally agree. I had this discussion today with Pogo. I have a brother who's an accountant but that's my limit on finance. I know someone who knows something about it.

My experience of following technicals is listening to advice given via YouTube or on threads. In my view it helps to find you an entry point or to trade very short term (that's not my style). As soon as you go more than very short term the fundamentals kick in with new information which pours cold water over the technical analysis.

I also think that retail investors, like most of us on this site, need to trade long term because we can't compete with institutional traders who have far more information available to them. They're also, presumably, trained well on how to use that information. If we think long term, we give ourselves an advantage.

For success institutional investors trade short term, retail investors trade long term.

We're not going to come to any agreement on Varadi so no more discussion there.

You have to listen to MOL because a lot of what he says is good information. But in business he's cunning as a fox and he knows everyone listens to him. Anything he says about a competitor is part of an agenda. If he can get fewer people to invest in Wizz it'll take Wizz longer to get their credit rating back and therefore make them less competitive. It's utter nonsense. He's laughing to himself when people take it seriously (to him it's job done).