Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Frank

If you're asking me then I think you know the answer.

OTCD

I said that you are a trader, clearly with good technical charting knowledge. I agree, absolutely nothing wrong with trading in that way.

I wanted to make clear to GaryDav that Wizz is a high potential investment. In taking advantage of the high potential, most people cannot also trade the swings. When the stock finally doesn't swing backwards, the trader trading the reversal or even shorting it is left out in the cold. Normally never returns to the stock.

It would take another black Swan event to stop this €439m H1 operating profit from being a significantly higher H1 operating profit next H1. So trying to trade swings on a stock that is very likely turning the corner takes talent.

Giving up on Wizz as an investment at this moment, IMO, is madness.

A Catalyst: if Barclays come out and justify their £15 price target (40% higher than current price), that would act as a Catalyst. Anybody following Wizz will have noticed that over the last 3 years Lobbenberg's target prices have been the most accurate. I think that £15 is for next June (F26 report).

Taut

You're missing my point.

My point was simply that a succesful share always "rinses and repeats" prior to a stellar rise. Take IAG or Royal Caribbean, if you don't want to think about technology.

GaryDav

Another point. I strongly recommend that you don't listen to this "rinse & repeat " nonsense. Anyone who held Rolls Royce or Nvidia during 2021 or 2022 knows that the most successful stocks rinse and repeat many times before they take off.

If you try to trade them eventually you'll be left out in the cold like so many Rolls Royce investors found. Now we don't know when or Where the Wizz Air stock is going but it is very high potential. I don't think you can find better opportunities elsewhere.

GaryDav

Do your own research. I think that OTCD is a trader and works closely with the technicals. If that's your style then that's great.

Wizz actually has a history of moving very fast. We've had this discussion on this forum before. In the last 10 years, it's gone 3-4 fold upwards on 2 occasions, and more than doubled on 1 occasion. I don't think that it's price has ever been as compressed as it is currently.

As for a catalyst. What did IAG need for a catalyst in it's recent 4 fold move. What did Easyjet need for a catalyst in it's 9 fold move from 2009 to 2013. The answer is simply profits.

This €439m operating profit from a €1.2B company is an amazing profit. Varadi tempered it during the earnings call in saying that despite the H1 result revenues will fall this year. I think that you need to ask yourself why he did that. My view is that last year he over promised and under delivered. He clearly wants to do the opposite now. Don't be surprised if we get a good Q3 earnings report as well in January.

£120 being Varadi's bonus. Yes, let's hope before 8 years. 🤞

OTCD

Hold me to the predictions which I have made:

Christmas 25.... £14

End of C28..... £42

OTCD

Clearly that was not what I said. I wasn't making any immediate prediction. I was saying that by the metric of the average net profit over the 5 years of the GTF groundings, we're currently at a PE of just under 4. The average for the LSE Airlines is generally 8.5. To me that makes the Share price 50% undervalued.

Taut again

£20-£28 would be the right price at the moment. We're buying it at less than half price.

I've said this before (I know, same old..):

Over the last 2.5 years we've made a net profit of over

€800m. In the next 2.5 years, we'll make a net profit of around €800m. That makes our current PE around 4. Well our PE should be between 7 and 10.

I know we use a different calendar. Got it.

From Yeslam, another Awesome post. I totally agree.

"OTCD, Varadi is clearly not a good speaker. There is room to improve there for sure. But from analyst and market point of view wouldn't it be the actual content that matters? Ukraine resolution will be a catalyst for sure but two major issue that pushed WIZZ shares to current levels are Ukraine and GTF. Both out of their control. And if you look at it from this aspect they managed this rather well given the fact that the whole industry was just getting out covid when these happened. And there are visible signs that they will be able to turn it around. F25 around break even without that tax credit. F26 seems to be similar. This in a situation where most airline would have gone bankrupt. Wizz had 30% of their fleet grounded at the peak and still managed to get to break even.

All those noise about the debt/bankruptcy/delayed deliveries are actually proved to be overreaction from the market. Yes. Abu Dhabi was not a success story either, lack of hedging etc. So there were some F..ck ups. But in general I think there is an overall negative sentiment in the analyst community, which is partially driven by the fact that there is this eastern european CEO with his interesting accent being rather overconfident. When he does not give full year guidance in Q1 everyone goes ballistic. RYR does the same, no one cares. So many noise about aggressive growth strategy. When they cut it back than noise about delaying deliveries. This what makes the SP tank on short timeframe and not the fundamentals or management comm strategy in my view . Weren't the same analysts and market looked at WIZZ as a growth story few years ago? Varadi had the same s...tty presentation skills then.

There is no problem here about different opinions so put it out here. Breaking balls with john and pogo is different. They are just trolling but they can not comment on facts because they don't know. So they get trolled as well. But having different opinions, more than welcome."

This earnings report was phenomenal. €439m operating profit with under 200 Aircraft and supporting the depreciation & maintenance of nearly 50 grounded Aircraft. Yeslam could do a great projection of what we could actually earn with a fully operational fleet.

The Analysts are not qualified to clean the shoes of Varadi.

Taut

Yeslam,

"We had h1 earing operating profit of 400mln+ and cimpared to last year this is approx 100mln higher.

Does this not translate to 100mln more in profit this year? Say around 250/300mln? Also if 2027 is looking even better why not use 7.5PE and this translates to £22 price. I dont understand shorts, what do they have going for them?"

Yes. I totally agree with you. I think the issue is that current projections for H2 (the winter period) indicate poor yields and therefore, obviously, reduced revenue. MOL also talked about this recently, but he said that actually they don't know, it depends on late bookings.

To me, the operating profit for H1 was fantastic and will only improve every year going forward.

OTCD

Yes. I remember that post. That's why I was asking. Would the £9.70 level be considered as strong support? Given, no other negative changes.

OTCD

We visited the £9.70 level twice this year and bounced off both times. What do the technicals say about that?

IMHO Wizz Air below £10 is a phenomenal bargain. I missed the opportunity this time. Only another serious black Swan event would change this company sufficiently for there to be much downside beyond that.

Robbren

I don't care. It's a bit of banter between Wizz and Ryanair investors. Unfortunately John doesn't even have a clue about Ryanair's business.

John

Don't flatter yourself. You're no more able to read 100% of a financial report than I am. Yeslam is pretty unique from this point of view. And I'm very happy that we have Yeslam on this forum highlighting the salient points. It certainly is important in understanding the stocks in which you're putting your hard earned money.

OK. So you don't have a clue.

John

Just confirm that you understand the reason for the Ryanair 42% rise this year??

Stan

The only competitor in Eastern Europe to Wizz is Ryanair. Ryanair cannot grow faster than 4% per year and that's assuming that Boeing deliver new Aircraft in a timely fashion. In the last 20 years, Boeing have never been able to do that, even before supply chain issues.

Even though, as a percentage, Western Europe is growing much more slowly than Eastern Europe, Ryanair will still need to commit 30 of their new Aircraft per year to Western Europe to meet growth and retirements. And until 2030, they will not even receive 30 new Aircraft from Boeing per year.

Therefore the only option for Ryanair to significantly grow in Eastern Europe will be to withdraw from markets in the West.

My view is that the share price will trend upwards into Christmas and January as load factors and yields become more visible. I'm not sure if we'll get to £14 for Christmas but hopefully £13.