Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

OTCD

Looks like you nailed it. Japan certainly tanked. UK FTSE100 futures are well down.

A really, really bad winter has already been priced in, so what does any improvement on that do?

The point is, the situation is dynamic and not static.

OTCD

I'm not disagreeing with you. I know the effect the Macro has on stocks.

What I think happened is that after the stock reached £14 in late August, data reflecting poor winter bookings started to come in. That eventually drove the stock back down to the £10 area. Varadi basically confirmed this situation last week.

In my opinion though, every year is different (maybe because of the macro), some years you get early bookings and some late. It would not surprise me if there was a surge of late Christmas bookings (the aircraft will all fly full for Christmas, whatever) and late winter bookings generally. In this case, I think the share price can go back to £14. Maybe Christmas is too optimistic now but after the Q3 results, if they come in well.

Sapi

Presumably if your deprecating a 15 year old Aircraft vs a new Aircraft, the 15 year old depreciates at a much slower rate. Under normal circumstances however, you'd expect the 15 year old to have much higher fuel costs and, particularly as corrosion kicks in, much higher maintenance costs.

John Bri is a licensed engineer for the CAA. He can tell us all about how badly corrosion will effect Ryanair as their fleet ages.

I think that the brokers get a day by day reading on the traffic numbers because these numbers are an open secret. I check them for staff travel. I'm sure that they can also make an estimate on the yields. Therefore if you see the share price going up, it suggests that these numbers are holding up.

Robbren

Nor mine...

Robbren

I know it's difficult. If it wasn't, there'd be a lot of traders and no workers.

Don't worry, I'm a worker and I expect to be working until I'm 65.

Robbren

Every colleague I fly with is a trader. I have 10+ hours to talk with them every time I go to work. In 36 years, I've only known one guy to successfully trade and achieve retirement below the age of 60 as a result. He did it because of trading Bitcoin at the right time.

Buy and hold, don't leverage is what has worked.

All IMHO

Yeslam

Don't waste your time.

Most of us on here look forward to reading your well researched posts.

Robbren

I thought they'd recently reduced their holding below 5%.

Robbren

Research note timescale: 1 year from date of publication.

IMHO: They put out a note every quarter therefore they're not actually looking forward 1 year. I think that it can be taken as 6 months.

You're right. Today's price targets seem positive to me. It was only a year or so ago that they were all showing well below the current price of the time.

Barclays

I think that even in a vacuum, Wizz will drift upwards. Operational profit growth was a key turning point.

I'll take the opposite side of that trade from OTCD. I think, being the week after the earnings report, we'll see some institutions making statements regarding Wizz. I would be surprised if they weren't generally positive. My guess is £11.50 by the end of this week.

I can't read the article that GaryDav posted but I understand. You cannot run any kind of low cost operation out of Gatwick or Heathrow anymore. The taxes and charges have gone completely mad. Heathrow to the middle east, economy, taxes and charges alone = £190.

On the other hand: Rome to middle east €45.

Those figures are based on my company's staff travel, costs for free tickets, but we pay the taxes and charges.

Would have been a great trade for OTCD. Sell Ryanair shares the days before MOL decided to go to war with the online travel agents and then buy them back the day before he made peace.

Just to state that Ryanair went up 42% is misleading. There's underlying reasons which negate any significance to it.

You haven't stated the facts. I asked you why Ryanair went up 42% this year?

You're on vacation in the Canary islands and the only thing that you've got to do is Troll B777?? Man